Russia hits humanitarian convoy traveling to Ukrainian territory it claims as its own
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BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

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PUTIN’S ANNEXATION PLOY: As Russian President Vladimir Putin moves to claim more Ukrainian territory as Russian by signing “articles of accession” for four occupied regions, Russian forces unleashed a barrage of missiles, rockets, and suicide drones against five Ukrainian cities.

“Today, the Russian army inflicted another vile attack on civilians in Mykolaiv — a shell exploded near a public transport stop. There are dead, there are wounded,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last night. “Again, shelling of Kharkiv, the Sumy region, fierce shelling in Donbas, in the south of Ukraine.”

One strike was reported to have killed 25 people in a humanitarian convoy headed into a Russian-occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia province, according to regional Gov. Oleksandr Starukh, who posted pictures of burned-out vehicles on social media.

The attacks came after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would announce four regions of Ukraine — Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — would be added to the Russian Federation during a signing ceremony in Moscow today, even though Russia does not control all of the territory in those regions and the illegal referendums that supposedly supported the move were held at the point of a gun.

PUTIN TO SIGN TREATY ANNEXING OCCUPIED TERRITORIES IN UKRAINE, KREMLIN SAYS

EXTENDING HIS NUCLEAR UMBRELLA: The most dangerous aspect of Putin’s land grab is his threat to defend the alleged “sovereignty” of the illegally annexed regions with nuclear weapons if necessary.

Russia’s “escalate to de-escalate” nuclear doctrine is based on the theory that a limited nuclear strike with a low-yield nuclear weapon would be so shocking that it would force Ukraine and its Western supporters to back down and sue for peace.

But U.S. analysts say if Putin resorts to nuclear weapons, it will only make Ukraine more resolved not to surrender and trigger a massive conventional response from the United States and NATO. “We would conduct a devastating air and missile attack, largely to destroy his military, inside of Ukraine. He knows that, and so does his military people know that,” predicted retired Gen. Jack Keane, former Army chief of staff, on Fox News Sunday.

Keane thinks the probability of Putin using a nuke is low, noting Putin would be putting his own troops at risk. “His army on the battlefield, they're not trained to deal with a radioactive nuclear battlefield. The Soviet Union was. They were equipped and properly trained. These guys aren't trained to fight a conventional fight, much less deal with an environment like that.”

“He wants to win the war. If he uses a nuclear weapon, it guarantees that he loses,” Keane said.

READ MORE: IS THIS HOW NUCLEAR WAR STARTS?

PUTIN ADMITS MISTAKES: In a virtual meeting with his Security Council, Putin made a rare acknowledgment that his widely unpopular “partial mobilization” has been mishandled and that many Russian citizens have been conscripted who should not be.

“We must promptly correct our mistakes and not repeat them in the future regarding those citizens who, for example, are eligible for deferment, such as fathers with many children or people who have chronic illnesses or who are already over the call-up age,” Putin said. “We need to deal with each case separately, and if a mistake has been made — I repeat — it must be corrected, and those who have been drafted without proper grounds must be sent home.”

“There are also cases where, for example, doctors and highly qualified specialists in other professions and with many years of experience are enlisted in motor-rifle units, instead of serving where they are really needed and what they are ready for and needed for — for example, in hospitals. Why?” he said. “All of this should be dealt with without fuss, calmly but quickly, in detail, and thoroughly."

Meanwhile, Zelensky posted a video directly appealing to Russia’s ethnic minorities who have been disproportionately drafted to resist what he called Putin’s “criminal mobilization.”

Wearing a black hoodie with the words “I’m Ukrainian” emblazoned across his chest, Zelensky said, “You do not have to die in Ukraine. Your sons do not have to die in Ukraine. You have no such obligation.”

“Instead of ending the senseless war for Russia, the Russian authorities are trying to send new people to replace the dead. What awaits them all? You know the answer,” he said. “Ukraine will continue to defend itself and will win in this war waged against us because we are on our land.”

OPINION: WHY PUTIN WILL SOON HAVE TO CHOOSE BETWEEN LOSING IN UKRAINE OR USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will brief reporters at NATO Headquarters following a speech by Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoana on the return of major war to Europe at the Helsinki Security Forum. The 9:30 a.m. speech and the 12 p.m. press conference will both be streamed live on the NATO website.

ALSO TODAY: President Joe Biden along with the first lady and Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband attend the investiture ceremony for Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson at 10 a.m. Afterward, Biden delivers remarks on the federal response efforts for Hurricane Ian at 11:30 a.m.

‘ONE OF THE GREATEST SHAMS SINCE WORLD WAR II’: Members of Congress weighed in with various proposals to punish Putin for his illegal land grab.

“This is one of the greatest shams since World War II,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) who along with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) introduced legislation that would cut off economic and military aid to any country that recognizes Putin’s annexation.

“It reeks of Putin’s desperation and violates every tenet of international law and human decency. We must stand strong and reject this illegal and immoral annexation,” said Graham. “Territorial integrity is one of the bedrocks of the international order, and any nation which recognizes this illegal act should lose all military and economic assistance from the United States.”

“The international community must unequivocally denounce this illegal land grab and reaffirm our commitment to helping Ukraine defend itself,” said Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “The announcement of the annexation of four Ukrainian territories is just another attempt by Putin to save face as Russia loses its unjust and brutal war against Ukraine.”

“No kind of Putin propaganda can change what the world knows. His claims over Ukraine are illegitimate and hostile,” said Sen. Joni Ernst, (R-IA), who joined Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) in introducing the Non-Recognition of Russian Annexation of Ukrainian Territory Act, which requires that the U.S. not recognize any Russian claim of sovereignty over any portion of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) and Pat Toomey (R-PA) filed a bipartisan amendment to the Senate’s National Defense Authorization Act creating secondary sanctions against Russia.

“The amendment strengthens the G7 price cap regime by imposing secondary sanctions on foreign entities involved in the purchase of Russian seaborne petroleum and petroleum products at a price above the cap,” said the senators in a statement. “It also decreases the price cap over the period of three years to steadily deprive Russia of its oil profits. Clear and predictable consequences for violations will improve compliance and support the long-term success of the Administration’s plan.”

ONE MORE VOTE NEEDED: On a bipartisan 72-25 vote the Senate approved a continuing resolution yesterday to keep the government funded through Dec. 16, but the House still needs to act, and President Joe Biden needs to sign the legislation before midnight tonight.

"This is commonsense, bipartisan legislation," said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) before the vote.

The bill includes $12 billion in direct aid for Ukraine, plus another $3 billion in Ukraine-related spending, including money to replenish U.S. ammunition stocks and cover the cost of additional troop deployments to Europe.

STARLINK NEEDED IN IRAN: Florida Reps. Mike Waltz and Maria Salazar have written Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting the U.S. facilitate the transfer of Starlink satellite internet terminals to nongovernmental organizations in Iran to “ensure the Iranian people and the media have the freedom to communicate,” in response to Tehran’s shutdown of the internet.

“As large-scale protests in the wake of Mahsa Amini's murder by Iranian Regime authorities continue across Iran, the regime is ruthlessly cracking down in its desperate attempt to silence internal dissent and peaceful protesters,” the Republican lawmakers wrote. “In order to cloak this state-sponsored violence from the Iranian people and the rest of the world, Iran's ruling Mullahs have ordered internet access to be shut down across the country.”

“We have already witnessed the success of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, helping thwart Russia's misinformation in the early weeks of the conflict. We feel this can similarly provide a vital service for the people of lran, especially its women, in their struggle for freedom and unjust treatment by their government.”

Last week, Elon Musk told the Financial Times he stands ready to turn on Starlink service in Iran.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Putin to sign treaty annexing occupied territories in Ukraine, Kremlin says

Washington Examiner: Russian annexation of occupied Ukraine a ‘dangerous escalation,’ UN chief says

Washington Examiner: Is this how nuclear war starts?

Washington Examiner: Ukraine: Risk of Russian tactical nuclear strike is 'very high'

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why Putin will soon have to choose between losing in Ukraine or using nuclear weapons

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CNN: Pentagon Working To Form New Command To Coordinate Arming And Training Ukraine

Reuters: Pentagon Chief: Too Soon To Say Who Might Be Behind Nord Stream Pipeline Ruptures

The Guardian: Nord Stream Attacks Highlight Vulnerability Of Undersea Pipelines In West

USNI News: Russian Cyber Efforts in Ukraine See Muted Results, Says Panel

AP: S. Korea, US and Japan hold anti-N. Korean submarine drills

AP: U.S. Navy’s Newest Carrier To Deploy, Train With NATO Nations

Military.com: Florida Military Bases Assessing Damage After Hurricane Ian Batters The State

Air Force Times: Air Force Leaders Urge More Focus on Mental Health as Suicides Rise

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Marooned Air Force CV-22 Osprey Finally Removed From Norwegian Island

Breaking Defense: Next Space Force ‘Responsive Launch’ Experiment Aims to Loft Satellite in a Hurry

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Recruits Who Test Positive for Marijuana May Now Get a Second Chance

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Space News: Kendall: Power Competition in Space Becoming More Destabilizing

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19fortyfive.com: The War in Ukraine Is Far From Over

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Calendar

FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 30

9 a.m. — Middle East Institute online event: “How Protests in Iran Shape an Uncertain Future,” with Holly Dagres, nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Middle East Program; Mohsen Sazegara, activist in the Islamic Revolution of Iran in 1978-79 and member of the Liberation Movement of Iran in the diaspora; Alex Vatanka, founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program; and Brian Katulis, MEI senior fellow and vice president of policy https://www.mei.edu/events/how-protests-iran-shape-uncertain-future

9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “How Korea and India Are Creating New Data Policies and Models,” with Rahul Matthan, partner at Trilegal; Kyung Sin Park, professor of law at Korea University; Smriti Parsheera, fellow at the Getulio Vargas School of Law's CyberBRICS project; and Stefaan Verhulst, co-founder and chief of research and development at the Governance Laboratory https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/30

9 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Global China: U.S.-China relations through the lens of technology competition,” with White House Senior Director for Technology and National Security Tarun Chhabra https://www.brookings.edu/events/global-china-us-china-relations

3 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion with Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly on "continuing to aid Ukraine and maintaining Western pressure on Russia." https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-melanie-joly

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
“A lot of questions are being raised during this mobilization campaign, and we must promptly correct our mistakes and not repeat them in the future regarding those citizens who, for example, are eligible for deferment, such as fathers with many children or people who have chronic illnesses or who are already over the call-up age. We need to deal with each case separately, and if a mistake has been made — I repeat — it must be corrected, and those who have been drafted without proper grounds must be sent home.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin in a rare admission his partial mobilization order has sparked public outrage
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