Welcome back to the Data for Progress newsletter, your update on our research, blog posts, and memes.


Where do the 2020 Candidates Stand on Foreign Policy?
Foreign policy has not gotten the attention it deserves in the Democratic primary debates, which is especially problematic considering it’s one of the areas over which our next president will have the most power.

This Thursday, in collaboration with Common Defense, we released our 2020 Candidate Foreign Policy Report to assess the foreign policy plans of eight of the top 2020 Democrats. For each candidate, we rigorously analyzed their public statements, campaign platforms, and key voting records and compared them with the progressive foreign policy stances that our polling shows are popular with voters.

We found Bernie Sanders has the most progressive foreign policy agenda, followed by Elizabeth Warren. Meanwhile, five of the candidates we assessed — Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang, and Cory Booker — have at least three issues that they have either not addressed or have positions that fall below the baseline.



Alongside our candidate comparison table, we released in-depth candidate profiles for all eight candidates we assessed, outlining in detail their positions on key foreign policy matters, from the crisis in Yemen to relations with Russia and China to diplomacy with Iran. Click here to read each of these reports.

Note: this report does not include candidates’ positions on Israel and Palestine, which we covered in a separate memo.


Memo: Medicare for All
Throughout the Democratic primary, many pundits have called Medicare for All political suicide. A DFP memo released this week found that any way you cut it, this claim is wrong.

Our analysis shows that across five separate pollsters, Medicare for All-supporting Democrats poll better against Trump than Democrats running on “strengthening the Affordable Care Act.” Across the five polls, M4A Dems performed between 4 and 10 points better than the ACA Dems.



This pattern of M4A-supporting Democrats beating Trump holds true even when voters are presented with counter-arguments against Medicare for All. Our poll found that even after hearing Trump’s framing that Medicare for All is “socialist,” would raise taxes, and would lead to waiting times, voters still supported the M4A Democrat over Trump.




The Senate is an Irredeemable Institution
On Thursday, the U.S. House impeached President Trump. But one antidemocratic institution is standing in the way of removing him from office: the Senate.

In a new memo, we demonstrated that the main argument used to defend the Senate — that by representing smaller states, it helps represent minority groups in Congress — is fallacious. In fact, the Senate actively underrepresents racial minority groups.

Our analysis found that small states (which are overrepresented in the Senate) tend to be whiter, have less immigrants, and have fewer non-English speaking residents. While whites constitute 71 percent of eligible voters, the Senate effectively weights them as 78 percent of eligible voters.



In other words, the Senate reduces representation of minorities — the exact opposite of what its proponents suggest is its intention.

The Senate also significantly distorts party politics. Small states tend to vote more Republican and are generally less supportive of gun control, less supportive of the $15 minimum wage, and less supportive of immigrants. In general, in any case where the opinions of whites differ from the nation as a whole, the Senate will systematically distort representation to favor whites.

In fact, we found that the Senate’s geographic penalty against Democrats is twice as strong as that of the Electoral College.




DFP Analysis: Elizabeth Warren’s Green Jobs Plan Would Create 10.6 Million Jobs
In a new report, we analyzed the economic impact of Elizabeth Warren’s new Green Jobs Plan. We found that it would create 5.4 million direct jobs over a ten year mobilization and 10.6 million likely jobs, assuming each federal dollar invested yields an additional 1.5 in exports and induced private-sector activity.



The majority of jobs in Warren’s plan would come from the energy sector, and it would result in significant industrial and infrastructure development. Just three of Warren’s plans — the Green Industrial Mobilization, 100% Renewable Energy, and the Green Marshall Plan — would result in $716 billion in demand for construction and $495 billion for industrial machinery manufacturing.



Thanks to Axios and Elizabeth Warren’s campaign for referencing our research!


Redefining Green Jobs for a Sustainable Economy
In a new report, DFP’s Greg Carlock teamed up with Amanda Novello from The Century Foundation to argue that we need to redefine “green jobs” as “any position that is part of the sustainability workforce,” including healthcare workers and educators. This new definition would make “green workers” a more diverse group in terms of race and gender.


A Brief History of Displacement: How Workers are Fighting Back Amid the Looming Climate Crisis
In a recent memo, we analyzed the economic transitions after WWII and in the neoliberal era, and highlighted several examples of workers who supported environmental regulations, even if they threatened their own jobs.


Data Bytes

• Memo: Even with Millions Spent Against it, a Progressive Pharmaceutical Agenda Can Win: Recently, we released a memo showing that the Elijah Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act — passed by Democrats in Congress on December 10 — is popular, even in the face of aggressive pharmaceutical industry opposition.
  
  The act — H.R. 3 — would allow Medicare to negotiate the price of many drugs with pharmaceutical companies and would prevent drug prices from rising faster than the rate of inflation.
  
  In a recent poll, we presented different groups of voters with five separate framings of the bill. In Version 1, where voters heard both a Democratic and Republican argument in favor of the bill polled, there was overwhelming support — 60 percent in favor, 27 percent opposed. However, even in Versions 2 to 4, which included stronger anti-bill messages, H.R. 3 had double-digit net support from voters. Only Version 5, which was overwhelmingly one-sided, had more opposition than support.
  
  
   

• Voters Support More Government Regulation of Social Media Companies: In a new memo, we released polling that shows that Americans broadly approve of publicizing the social media ad algorithms used by private platforms like Facebook and Twitter.
  
  60 percent of voters — including 64 percent of Democrats, 58 percent of Republicans, and 53 percent of independents — said they’d support such a policy.
  
  
  
  We also found that 53 percent of Americans would prefer that the federal government devise digital currency, while just 5 percent would prefer private companies like Facebook. In a different memo, Illinois Representative Chuy García, who introduced the Keep Big Tech Out of Finance Act, argued in favor of placing the Federal Reserve in charge of overseeing cryptocurrency.
  
   

• Voters Support a Lobbying Tax: In a recent analysis, we tested whether Elizabeth Warren’s proposal for a tax on lobbying was popular.
  
  In our survey, we explicitly informed voters that the proposal would involve substantial tax increases and noted that lobbying can also be used on behalf of the public interest. Still, we found that 59 percent of voters support the plan, while just 22 percent oppose.
  
  
  
  Notably, a plurality of Republicans — 47 percent — support the proposal.
   

• Elizabeth Warren’s Blue New Deal is Popular: On December 10, Elizabeth Warren released a comprehensive “Blue New Deal” plan to restore marine habitats, expand ocean-based jobs, and protect coastal communities. At DFP, we broke down the polling and found that a strong majority of voters — 64 percent — support government investment in restoring wetlands and seagrass. Only 21 percent oppose.
  
  
   

• Voters See Glaring Environmental Problems in the USMCA: On Thursday, the House of Representatives voted to pass the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) to the Senate. Although most voters know little about the USMCA, our polling found that they strongly agree that trade agreements should include binding limits on pollution and not empower oil and gas corporations.
  
  Specifically, a plurality of voters — 41 percent to 28 percent — oppose allowing private tribunals to rule on oil and gas corporations’ lawsuits against environmental regulations. A plurality — 48 percent to 26 percent — also oppose tax breaks for oil corporations to export more tar sands.
  
  
  
  A majority of voters also support creating an independent agency to enforce a trade agreement’s environmental regulations and instating binding limits on air, water, and land pollution.

From The Blog
Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s 2010 Statewide Electoral Performance
The Public Supports Reducing Mobile Home Evictions
Voters Support New Clean Technology and Promoting American Clean Tech Around the World
Good COP, Bad COP
Elizabeth Warren’s Blue New Deal
The Nuanced Effects of Medicare for All
Congress Must Keep Big Tech Out Of Finance
Voters Support a Lobbying Tax
Long Term Care for all is a Political Winner


Media Hits
My Plan to Create 10.6 Million Green Jobs @Elizabeth Warren
Warren makes her economic case for the Green New Deal @Axios
Debate Exposes Pete Buttigieg’s Electability Problem: He Was Crushed in His One Statewide Race @The Intercept
American democracy’s Senate problem, explained @Vox
Elizabeth Warren's $10 Trillion Green New Deal Could Change America Forever @Gizmodo
Elizabeth Warren’s Climate Plan Would Create Up To 10.6 Million Jobs, Study Finds @Huffington Post
‘Medicare For All’ May Not Be The Political Suicide Mission Moderates Say It Is @Huffington Post
Elizabeth Warren Voted For A Sex Trafficking Crackdown. Now She’s Worried About “Unintended Consequences.” @Buzzfeed News
Poll: Democrats Can Reduce Third-Party Voting in 2020 by Getting High on Weed @New York Magazine
Teachers and Doctors Are the Green Jobs of the Future @Vice
Perhaps the World Ends Here, by Julian Brave NoiseCat @Harper’s Magazine
A Green New Deal for Oakland @The American Prospect
Meet Julian Brave NoiseCat – the 26-year-old shaping US climate policy @The Correspondent
Democrats Should Make 2020 a Referendum on ‘More Socialism for Old People’ @New York Magazine
Climate Change Is Getting Worse, but at Least Politicians Are Finally Talking About It @Mother Jones
The Energy Upside to Ilhan Omar's Trillion-Dollar Public Housing Plan @Gizmodo


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