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INVESTIGATIONS PREPARATION: European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement today that the bloc plans to step up protection of its energy infrastructure following the attacks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 natural gas pipelines. "We will support any investigation aimed at getting full clarity on what happened and why, and will take further steps to increase our resilience in energy security," he added.

German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck told reporters yesterday that Berlin now knows for sure that the explosions “were not caused by natural occurrences or events or material fatigue."

Habeck noted that Germany’s gas supply was not affected by the blasts, noting: "Germany is a country that knows how to defend itself. And Europe is a continent that can protect its energy infrastructure.”

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said yesterday that he and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had spoken to their Danish counterparts about the leaks, which he described on Twitter as “apparent sabotage.” “The U.S. is supporting efforts to investigate and we will continue our work to safeguard Europe’s energy security,” he wrote.

Who did it? No governments have yet accused anyone of perpetrating the attack, although speculation has run rampant.

But here is what we do know:

Tensions are extremely high in the Baltic: Speaking after a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Denmark’s defense minister, Morten Bodskov, said there is reason to be concerned about security around the Baltic. "Russia has a significant military presence in the Baltic Sea region and we expect them to continue their saber-rattling," Bodskov said.

A new focus on Norway: Norway, now the number one natural gas supplier to Europe, pledged to bolster the security of its oil and gas installations.

The country has over 90 oil and gas fields, most of which are connected to a network of pipelines spanning roughly 5,590 miles—and now, connecting it to Poland via the Baltic Pipe.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere told a local news outlet that he saw “no specific threat” to the country’s offshore oil and gas sector, and said he has not requested additional military assistance from allies. But others suggested that Norway is not going far enough to boost its defenses.

Tor Ivar Stroemmen, a senior lecturer at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, told Reuters he is concerned about a lack of interagency and industry coordination in handling on and offshore security responsibilities.

Norway should “survey the gas lines [and] start continuous surveillance of all activity on the surface near those pipelines,” he said.

“The Norwegian government has to realize that by far the most important strategic object in all of Europe now is the energy or gas imports from Norway," Stroemmen told Reuters.

"If those deliveries should be cut or stopped or reduced by a large amount, this would cause a complete energy crisis in Europe,” he added.

Tom Marzec-Manser, the head of gas analytics at the energy consultancy ICIS, noted the close proximity between the Nord Stream 2 blast and where it crosses with the Baltic pipeline—a distance he described on Twitter as “symbolic to say the least.” For central Europe, he said, it is “twilight for Russia, dawn for Norway.”

THE LEAKS MAY ALSO BE “DISASTROUS” FOR THE CLIMATE – READ ON BELOW…

Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment Writers Jeremy Beaman (@jeremywbeaman) and Breanne Deppisch (@breanne_dep). Email [email protected] or [email protected] for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.

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AN “UNPRECEDENTED” METHANE LEAK? Scientists are racing to determine how much methane has been leaked into the environment from the explosions. Though neither pipeline had been operating at the time, both still contained pressurized natural gas—which is made primarily of methane.

“Given that, over twenty years, a ton of methane has a climate impact more than 80 times that of CO2, the potential for a massive and highly damaging emission event is very worrisome,” David McCabe, senior scientist at the climate nonprofit group Clean Air Task Force, told Bloomberg. “There are a number of uncertainties but, if these pipelines fail, the impact to the climate will be disastrous and could even be unprecedented.”

But estimating the damage will take quite some time: Denmark’s defense minister said today that it might take up to two weeks for waters to calm enough to even begin an investigation into the blasts, let alone start calculating any environmental effects.

Andrew Baxter, the director of energy strategy at the Environmental Defense Fund, estimated on Twitter that 115,000 tons of methane may have leaked into the atmosphere as a result of the blasts. “That's 9.6 million tons of CO2 equivalent,” he said—roughly the same climate impact as the annual emissions of 2 million gasoline cars in a single year, or emissions from two and a half coal-fired power stations.

IAN GAINS STRENGTH AS IT BARRELS TOWARDS FLORIDA: Hurricane Ian continued to rapidly intensify this morning as it barreled towards Florida, growing to a strong Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, just two miles an hour shy of Category 5 status.

The impact of the storm is expected to be significant, with hurricane-force winds extending roughly 40 miles from the storm’s center, and tropical-storm-force winds extending for another 175 miles. Storm surge in parts of the state is expected to hit 12-16 feet.

“Clearly, this is a very powerful major hurricane that’s going to have major impacts, both on impact in southwest Florida, but then as it continues to work through the state,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said this morning. “It is going to have major, major impacts in terms of wind, in terms of rain, in terms of flooding, so this is going to be a nasty, nasty day— two days.”

The NHC predicts Hurricane Ian will hit around 2 p.m. today, and urged residents to be on high alert and brace for what they described as “life-threatening storm surge, catastrophic winds and flooding in the Florida peninsula.”

“[A]voiding a large and destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents should heed the advice of local emergency management officials,” forecasters said.

Already, more than 140,000 residents have been hit by power outages, and much of the state is under tornado watch until this evening.

…Central Florida is also bracing for what NHC forecasters said is "widespread, prolonged major and record river flooding.” Major flooding could also hit Georgia and South Carolina as the storm travels up the East Coast.

“This is going to be a storm we talk about for many years to come,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said this morning. “It’s a dangerous, life-threatening storm surge.”

… Meanwhile, all of Cuba was left without power yesterday evening after Ian made landfall there as a Category 3 storm, knocking the island’s entire power grid offline as it tried to deal with the aftermath of the storm. Officials said they hope to restore power today at the earliest.

… And in Washington, President Joe Biden warned oil and gas producers not to use Ian as an “excuse” to drive up prices.

"Do not, let me repeat, do not, do not use this as an excuse to raise gasoline prices and gouge the American people," Biden said at a White House event, noting that Ian is forecast to impact production by less than 2% a day.

BIDEN URGES OIL COMPANIES TO BRING DOWN PRICES: Biden repeated his demands for oil companies to lower the price of gasoline yesterday, citing the disparity between global oil prices, which fell last month, and gas prices in parts of the U.S.

“Last month, the price of oil worldwide is down,” Biden said at the White House. “We haven’t seen the lower prices reflected at the pump, though. Meanwhile, oil and gas companies are still making record profits -- billions of dollars in profit.”

“My message is simple,” Biden said. “To the companies running gas stations and setting those prices at the pump: Bring down the prices you’re charging at the pump to reflect the cost you pay for the product. Do it now.”

The average cost of gasoline is $3.76, up from the same point last week but still well below prices in June, which climbed to an all-time high of more than $5 a gallon.

Gas prices remain higher in Western states due to a lack of refining capacity.

PERMITTING PUT OFF AFTER MANCHIN PULLS BILL: Sen. Joe Manchin pulled the plug on his permitting reform bill yesterday after it faced opposition from across the caucus, leading the chamber to subsequently advance a continuing resolution to fund the government without the measure in a 72-23 vote.

Manchin said he believes “we should never come to the brink of a government shutdown over politics” and therefore asked Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to remove his bill from the CR, but he said failure on permitting reform “only serves to embolden leaders like Putin who wish to see America fail.”

Some Senate Democrats stressed the need for permitting reform in the past few weeks, but several others, such as Sens. Bernie Sanders, Tim Kaine, and Jeff Merkley, were especially critical of Manchin’s proposal, including for its extending a helping hand to fossil fuel projects.

Republican support for the bill, meanwhile, was not forthcoming in large enough numbers, despite the party’s wide-reaching support for reform.

Not the end: Environmental groups cheered the measure’s failure as a victory. Earthjustice President Abigail Dillen called it “a testament to those who had the courage and fortitude to stand up against the fossil fuel industry and their political allies,” adding that her group expects “more battles to come.”

It looks like Dillen can count on that. Schumer said he and other lawmakers will keep talking with the intention of passing permitting reform before year’s end.

RAILROAD COMPANIES ARE FUELING INFLATION UNDER BIDEN, CONSUMERS SAY: On this week’s “Plugged In” podcast, American Chemistry Council CEO Christopher Jahn sought to blame railroad companies for stifling competition and driving up prices in the industry.

Jahn told former FERC chairman and host Neil Chatterjee that four railroads currently control 90% of freight traffic—and called for railroad leaders to invest more in their staff, give more transparency to their consumers and stop price gouging.

“We’re really, as you well know, still in a supply chain crisis,” Jahn said. “We’ve got service disruptions that are more frequent, they’re more severe, they’re longer lasting.” Listen to the full episode here.

The Rundown

Reuters U.S. seeks allies as split emerges over global plastics pollution treaty

Financial Times Slovakia energy crisis could ‘kill our economy’, premier warns

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Calendar

THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 29

1:30 p.m. 210 Cannon The House Select Climate Crisis Committee will hold a hearing examining the various climate provisions included in the Inflation Reduction Act.