Jack, in addition to being political director here at Daily Kos, I co-host our podcast, the Downballot, which looks at elections below the presidential level. In our new episode, I had the privilege to talk at length with Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, which is one of the country's leading Democratic political data firms, and he said something that everyone should remember well: "Control of the House will likely be decided by just a few seats."

This is critically important because the media persisted in reporting on this election as if it were a guaranteed blowout for the Republicans for more than a year—basically since Joe Biden first took office. But as Tom points out, there is quite a lot of data out there to debunk this. That's why I'm writing to you today.

Daily Kos is doing everything it can to support our endorsed candidates to make sure we can keep the House, expand our majority in the Senate, and win key downballot offices like state legislatures and secretary of state positions, but we've started to fall behind in fundraising for ourselves along the way.

Daily Kos needs to raise $84,747 before the end of the month to make ends meet so that we can keep working to deliver a Democratic win in November. Can you give $5 right now to help us close the books on September?

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I know what you're thinking: What makes 2022 so different from other midterm elections? That's a great question, and it's a big part of my conversation with Tom. (You should listen to the podcast! Here's that link again.) But here's the long and short of it:

The party that controls the White House typically loses the House national popular vote in the following midterm election by about five points. Republicans were underperforming this margin all through the Biden era. Why? It's difficult to say, but it could be a combination of the January 6 attack, Trump's continued presence and his various ongoing scandals, and the new extremism of the Republican Party.
Then, in June, the Supreme Court handed down their extremist decision in Dobbs, overturning Roe v. Wade. And suddenly, everything changed.
Kansas was set to vote on an anti-abortion amendment to its state constitution this summer. In the weeks between Dobbs coming down and Kansans heading to the polls, the number of Kansans registering to vote went from a 50-50 split between men and women—which you'd expect—to a 70-30 divide in which women made up a supermajority of newly registered voters.
On election day in Kansas, women accounted for 56 percent of ballots cast. This surge of women voters was younger and more diverse than the typical Kansas electorate. For example, Latino voters accounted for a larger share of the vote than they did in any Kansas election except for the 2020 presidential election.
Special congressional elections in New York and Alaska followed, delivering surprise victories for Democrats in districts that Republicans were sure they'd win.

These underlying trends, combined with some extraordinarily weak Republican candidates for House and Senate, have put Democrats in a position to expand their Senate majority and possibly even keep control of the House. This would be an enormous shock to the political system. Almost no one in the media is expecting this sort of result and it is by no means guaranteed—we'll need to work our asses to make it a reality.

So please give $5 right now so we can close the books on September and get right back to work electing Democrats.

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Thank you,
David Nir, Political Director
Daily Kos

P.S. Remember to listen to our full interview with Tom Bonier here.

P.P.S. Want to help Democrats win but can't donate? Click to find ways to volunteer to Get Out The Vote.

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