Even if global heating stops immediately after a tipping point, the cascading effects of a single event will continue to unfold.
John,
Climate researchers, writing for the journal Science, have identified 16 “tipping points” which represent rapid and irreversible accelerations in the effects of climate change, staggered out by increases in global heating by degrees Celsius. Even if we manage to keep warming to 1.5C, which is the goal set by the Paris Agreement, 4 of those tipping points would change from “possible” to “likely.”
Beyond global heating of 1.5C, which is what we’re currently heading towards, passing all 16 tipping points becomes even more likely.
A few of the tipping points we’re closest to hitting are the collapse of Greenland’s ice sheet, the collapse of the current underpinning the Atlantic Gulf Stream, and the melting of the carbon-laden permafrost.
These “likely” ratings are deeply concerning because of the extreme acceleration in the effects of climate change that occur when a tipping point is reached. Even if global heating stops immediately after a tipping point, the cascading effects of a single event will continue to unfold. As we’ve seen in the past few years with extreme weather, this will mean floods, droughts, storms, blizzards, and periods of intense heat — regardless of what we do after a tipping point threshold has been crossed.
But there is good news, John. Researchers say that every fraction of a degree that we can prevent the earth from warming matters in this fight against climate change and keeps us further away from the tipping points.
It’s clear that the global community needs to get on board with keeping global heating at a minimum. There is no other option — the future of our earth and the global population depends on it. SEEC members are doing everything they can on the international and domestic front to ensure that we keep chipping away at those fractions of a degree because they know how much it will mean in the long-term.
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