Climate change news from the ground, in a warming world Was this forwarded to you? Sign up here [[link removed]] Laurie Goering [[link removed]]

Climate editor

Evidence is growing that catastrophic climate change "tipping points" [[link removed]] are nearing, from surging sea levels as polar ice melts to spiking temperatures as methane - a potent driver of global warming - escapes thawing permafrost.

That has scientists quietly planning for the unthinkable - from drowned coastal cities to global average temperatures that could soar 5-8 degrees Celsius (8-14 Fahrenheit) over 20 years, causing food system collapse and displacing billions of people.

"Extreme climate change risks are under-explored," Luke Kemp, a researcher with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, warned at a pioneering conference last week, where scientists sat in stunned silence during a frank assessment of looming threats.

But "positive" climate change tipping points [[link removed]] - where small changes accumulate into irreversible, self-sustaining big changes - may also be on the horizon.

A boy with a disability sits with his partially wet and muddy cloths after he waded through flooded streets, following heavy rains and floods during the monsoon season in Nowshera, Pakistan ,September 3, 2022. REUTERS/Fayaz Aziz

These include a switch to solar and wind energy as those two power sources become cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives, and, in some countries, a decline in meat-eating - a major driver of global deforestation and climate change - as tasty and affordable alternatives become available.

How do such big changes happen?

Scarlett Benson, of the Food and Land Use Coalition, says moving away from meat, for example, depends on things such as price (it it cheaper?), performance (does it taste good?), accessibility (can you get it at the local shop?), culture (are your friends and family also switching?) and capability (do you know how to cook it?). Smart public policy can then help accelerate change.

Social tipping points may also be emerging, from graduates refusing jobs at unsustainable firms to families investing in solar panels, eating less meat [[link removed]] or joining climate change protests when they see their friends and neighbours doing it.

"Tipping happens not because all see the light at once but because we’re influenced by opinions of others," said W. Brian Arthur, a California economist who works on complexity theory.

Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and a researcher on "positive" tipping points, calls them critical to driving the needed climate action fast enough.

"I think our best, and possibly last, hope of avoiding the bad tipping points is finding and triggering some good tipping points," he said.

A man pours a bottle of water on his head to cool off at a street during high temperature in Baghdad, Iraq, July 19, 2022. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

In Iraq, it's a lack of action altogether that's driving problems.

Tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue are swelling the nation's coffers as global fossil fuel prices rise - but the lack of a functioning government [[link removed]] for almost a year means little is being spent on protecting the nation against worsening climate impacts including drought, water shortages and soaring heatwaves, writes correspondent Nazih Osseiran.

With political wrangling still ongoing about who should lead the country after elections last October, "the political crisis is adding a layer of complexity to the climate crisis in the country," says Zeinab Shuker, an Iraqi sociology professor. As a result, "the worst-case scenario is what is happening right now."

See you next week,

Laurie

Indonesia's sinking villages look to nature to restore mangroves [[link removed]]

A restoration pilot project on Java island is helping villagers protect their communities as climate change spurs worsening floods

What does the green transition mean for energy jobs? [[link removed]]

As calls grow for climate action, the shift from fossil fuels to cleaner power sources raises questions about who can access the new jobs, what skills they require and how much they pay

As climate 'tipping points' near, scientists plan for the unthinkable [[link removed]]

As irreversible 'tipping points' loom, scientists are trying to figure out how to communicate the risks - and push action

How could positive 'tipping points' accelerate climate action? [[link removed]]

As catastrophic climate change tipping points loom, could positive shifts toward green action also be speeding up?

Iraq's political stalemate pushes climate action to backseat [[link removed]]

A political crisis has left Iraq without a functional government and unable to act on worsening climate change impacts

Why are nature protection funds not reaching indigenous peoples? [[link removed]]

Donors are increasingly funding indigenous communities but study says only a fraction of cash is reaching biodiversity frontlines

OPINION: Women land defenders in Latin America need new rights to be implemented [[link removed]]

The Escazú Agreement sets out to curb escalating violence and give indigenous activists a voice in decision-making - if respected, it will also boost environmental protection

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