BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

‘RUSSIA IS FAILING’: Russia's faltering military is failing to achieve even Vladimir Putin's more limited, scaled-down goal of capturing “the entire territory of Donbas,” a senior defense official told reporters at the Pentagon Monday.

“You might recall President Putin called for the entirety of Donetsk province to be under Russian control by September 15th, but Putin's forces clearly have failed to deliver,” the official said. “The bottom line, as we look at the battlefield, is that Russia is failing in its strategic objective.”

Morale among Russian forces continues to plummet with every Ukrainian victory to the point where some dispirited troops are refusing to fight, and an effort by the private Wagner Group to recruit convicts in return for reduced prison sentences is attracting few volunteers, the Pentagon says.

“Russians are performing so poorly that the news from Kharkiv province has inspired many Russian volunteers to refuse combat,” the official said. “Many of you have likely seen the video circulating on social media of the private military contractor, Wagner's leader [Evgeny] Prigozhin, trying to recruit Russian prisoners… We believe this is part of Wagner's campaign to recruit over 1,500 convicted felons, but many are refusing.”

“Our information indicates that Wagner has been suffering high losses in Ukraine, especially — and unsurprisingly — among young and inexperienced fighters,” the official said.

MERCENARY GROUP SEEKING 1,500 CONVICTED FELONS TO FIGHT IN UKRAINE, US SAYS

PANIC IN LUHANSK AND DONETSK: A senior military official at yesterday’s Pentagon briefing said Ukraine is consolidating gains in the vicinity of Kharkiv in the north, effectively fending off Russian attacks in the eastern Donbas, and continuing to liberate villages in Kherson province in the south.

“Ukrainian counteroffensive successes are degrading morale among Russian units that were regarded as elite prior to the invasion of Ukraine,” according to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War.

The Ukrainian momentum, especially in the north, has sparked panic in the Russian-occupied areas Luhansk and Donetsk, where Russian separatists are calling for immediate annexation by Moscow, according to the Institute.

“The legislatures of Russia’s proxies in occupied Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), each called on their leadership to ‘immediately’ hold a referendum on recognizing the DNR and LNR as Russian subjects,” the ISW says. “Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan spoke glowingly of the call, referring to it as the ‘Crimean scenario.’ She wrote that by recognizing occupied Ukrainian land as Russian territory, Russia could more easily threaten NATO with retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian counterattacks.”

The ISW’s conclusion: “Partial annexation … would place the Kremlin in the strange position of demanding that Ukrainian forces un-occupy ‘Russian’ territory, and the humiliating position of being unable to enforce that demand.”

“It remains very unclear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be willing to place himself in such a bind.”

PUTIN WILL NEED TO ‘REVISE’ HIS OBJECTIVES IN UKRAINE, US INTEL CHIEF SAYS

‘TANKS ABSOLUTELY ON THE TABLE’: Ukraine has been begging the west for main battle tanks to press its advantage against Russian forces and, in recent days, has been able to use captured Russian tanks in its northern campaign.

But Ukraine says it needs many more. Last week, Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, renewed the plea as he tweeted photos of the graves near the city of Izyum, where Ukraine says exhumed bodies of civilians show signs of brutal torture.

“For months, a rampant terror, violence, torture and mass murders in the occupied territories. Anyone else want to ‘freeze the war’ instead of sending tanks?” Podolyak tweeted.

“Tanks are absolutely on the table along with other areas,” said the senior defense official at the Pentagon briefing, but for now, not U.S. tanks.

“We agreed that armor is a really important capability area for the Ukrainians,” the official said. “Now they've largely been relying on Soviet-type tanks and we've spent a good deal of effort in encouraging countries largely in Europe, who have some of these Russian-made tanks, to provide them to Ukraine.”

“The tanks that are available that could be provided very quickly with little to no training are Soviet-type tanks, but we're certainly open to other options provided that the training, maintenance, and sustainment can be taken care of … when we look at Ukraine's longer-term needs, we recognize that there will be a day when they may want to transition and may need to transition to NATO compatible models.”

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Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Norwegian Defense Minister Bjorn Arild Gram at 2:30 p.m.

President Joe Biden leaves Washington tonight for New York ahead of his speech tomorrow before the 77th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, New York.

And Chief of Space Operations Gen. John Raymond, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., and Assistant Air Force Secretary for Space Acquisition and Integration Frank Calvelli are among the speakers today at the Air and Space Forces Association Air, Space and Cyber Conference that runs through tomorrow at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center, National Harbor, Maryland.

FRERICHS FREE AT LAST: It’s been almost three years since U.S. Navy veteran Mark Frerichs was kidnapped in Afghanistan and held by various groups. Yesterday, the Biden administration secured his release in a prisoner swap with the Taliban which sent convicted drug kingpin Haji Bashir Noorzai back to Afghanistan, where he got a hero’s welcome.

Frerichs, a civil engineer and former Navy diver from Illinois, had been working overseas as a contractor for a decade when he was abducted on Jan. 31, 2020, in Kabul.

“Mark’s return to his loved ones is the result of intense engagement with the Taliban,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement. “I am grateful to our State Department team and to our broader national security professionals as well as to our partners in Qatar.”

"In order to bring home a U.S. citizen and reunite him with his family, the president made the difficult decision to grant clemency to Haji Bashir Noorzai after he spent 17 years in U.S. government custody," a senior administration official told the Washington Examiner.

Before his arrest in 2005, Noorzai was considered to be one of the world’s 10 most wanted narcotics traffickers, according to Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The U.S. routinely claims it does not negotiate with terrorist groups, but this prisoner swap is just the latest example,” he wrote.

TALIBAN FREE NAVY VETERAN AND ENGINEER MARK FRERICHS IN PRISONER SWAP

27 DOWN, 3 TO GO: It’s been almost three months since NATO formally invited Finland and Sweden to join NATO, and with the approval of Greece, Spain, and Portugal last week, there are only three nations left who need to ratify the accession protocols for the two Nordic nations to become the 31st and 32nd members of the alliance.

The three holdouts are Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey. The biggest question mark remains Turkey, which has threatened to block the expansion unless Finland and Sweden live up to an agreement made in June which, among other things, requires the countries to extradite people Turkey considered terrorist suspects.

“There is no concrete step taken by these two countries yet,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency, according to Reuters. “Cavusoglu said Turkey had not expected Sweden to take steps before last Sunday's election but the next government in Stockholm must now make a move on the issue,” Reuters reported.

"They know this agreement will not be approved by the (Turkish) parliament unless they take (steps)," he said.

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The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Putin will need to ‘revise’ his objectives in Ukraine, US intel chief says

Washington Examiner: Mercenary group seeking 1,500 convicted felons to fight in Ukraine, US says

Washington Examiner: Taliban free Navy veteran and engineer Mark Frerichs in prisoner swap

Washington Examiner: Iran ‘wants justice’ for Soleimani and denies plans for US assassinations

Washington Examiner: Iranian president says more investigation needed on whether Holocaust occurred

Washington Examiner: Broken Border: Illegal immigration arrests under Biden exceed Obama's eight years

Washington Post: Pentagon opens sweeping review of clandestine psychological operations

Washington Post: Separatist regions push to join Russia as war effort falters

New York Times: Strike Near Another Ukrainian Nuclear Plant Escalates Fears of Disaster

AP: Ukraine, using captured Russian tanks, firms up its lines

AP: ‘We have nothing’: Izium’s trauma after Russian occupation

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Russia’s Woes in Ukraine Bolster Need for US to Maintain Air Superiority, Generals Say

Wall Street Journal: Navy Chief Warns About Taiwan Blockade

Yonhap: USFK Commander Warns Against North Korea’s Hostile Information, Cyber Operations

Defense One: CNO: Navy Is Equipping Ships With A Software Arsenal, Taking Lead On New Destroyer Design

Air & Space Forces Magazine: ACEing the China Challenge

Air & Space Forces Magazine: AMC Clears KC-46 for All Deployments and Taskings

USNI News: Sailors Bid Farewell To USS Monterey As Navy Prepares To Decommission 3 More Cruisers This Month

Stars and Stripes: Permanently Stationed U.S. Troops Probably Not Best Option For Baltics, NATO Chiefs Say

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall: ABMS Doomed Without New C3 Czar; Looks to Potential Munitions Competition

Defense One: Troops Worry Most About Inflation, Not China Or Russia, Air Force Secretary Says

Air & Space Forces Magazine: AFCENT Stands Up Group to Look at Cutting-Edge Tech, Small Drones

Air Force Times: More Senior Airmen, Fewer Overall Enlisted Expected in Next Few Years

AP: Sailor Accused Of Igniting USS Bonhomme Richard Puts Fate In Judge

19fortyfive.com: I Have Seen Iran's Drones Up Close: They Could Help Russia Fight Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Could the U.S. Military Really Defend Taiwan from an Invasion by China?

19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Is Using Mine-Rolling Tanks (Like This) to Ram Russian Armored Vehicles

19fortyfive.com: Putin's Army and Air Force Are Getting Killed in Ukraine

The Cipher Brief: Iranian-Based Attacks on Albania Highlight Need for Cyber Capacity Building

The Cipher Brief: How Iran Makes Israel Protector of the Palestinian People

Calendar

TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 20

8:15 a.m. 165 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Maryland — Air and Space Forces Association 2022 Air, Space and Cyber Conference, with Chief of Space Operations Gen. John Raymond; Assistant Air Force Secretary for Space Acquisition and Integration Frank Calvelli; Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.; Deputy Assistant Air Force Secretary for Installations Robert Moriarty; and Rep. August Pfluger, (R-TX) exas; and Rep. Kai Kahele, (D-HI) https://www.afa.org/events/2022-air-space-cyber-conference

9:30 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “U.S. Nuclear Strategy and Policy,” with testimony from Madelyn Creedon, research professor, George Washington University; Rose Gottemoeller, Stanford University; Eric Edelman, counselor, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, director, U.S. Institute of Peace; and Franklin Miller, principal, The Scowcroft Group https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: "Russia's Actions in Ukraine and the Crime of Genocide," with Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin; Azeem Ibrahim, director of special initiatives at the New Lines Institute; and Clint Williamson, senior fellow for international rule of law, governance and society at the McCain Institute for International Leadership https://www.usip.org/events/russias-actions-ukraine-and-crime-genocide

11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: "Current Challenges to the Defense Industrial Base," focusing on challenges in the context of the Ukraine war, with Frank St. John, COO of Lockheed Martin; Gordon Stein, vice president of U.S. operations at General Dynamics Land Systems; and Amy Gowder, president and CEO of GE Aviation Military Systems https://www.csis.org/events/current-challenges

12 p.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “Greco-Turkish Tensions: What It Means for NATO Unity and Regional Peace," with Asper Coskun, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Europe Program; Ioannis Grigoriadis, associate professor at Bilkent University; Ryan Gingeras, professor at the Naval Postgraduate School; and Gonul Tol, director of the MEI Turkey Program https://mei.edu/events/greco-turkish-tensions

1 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Coercion and Crisis Management in the Taiwan Strait," with Michael Swain, director of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft's East Asia Program; Ketian Zhang, assistant professor of international security at George Mason University; Lyle Morris, senior fellow in foreign policy and national security at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis; and James Siebens, fellow in defense strategy and planning at the Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/coercion-and-crisis

3 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “China's Influence on the Freely Associated States," with retired Adm. Philip Davidson, co-chair of the USIP's Senior Study Group on China and the Pacific Islands and former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; David Stilwell co-chair of the USIP's Senior Study Group on China and the Pacific Islands and former assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs; and former delegate Robert Underwood, D-Guam, and co-chair of the USIP's Senior Study Group on China and the Pacific Islands https://www.usip.org/events/chinas-influence-freely-associated-states

3:30 p.m. 2060 Rayburn — East-West Center in Washington discussion: “Taiwan Matters for America - America Matters for Taiwan," with Sen. Jim Inhofe, (R-OK); Rep. Steve Chabot, (R-OH); Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, (R-Fl).; Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office Taiwan Representative to the U.S. Bi-Khim Hsiao; Rupert Hammond Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council; and Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-launch-of-taiwan-matters-for-america

WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 21

TBA — President Joe Biden addresses the United Nations General Assembly.

8:15 a.m. 165 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Maryland — Air and Space Forces Association 2022 Air, Space and Cyber Conference, with Air Force Gen. Glenn VanHerck, commander of U.S. Northern Command; Navy Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command; Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander of U.S. Space Command; Air Force Gen. Mark Kelly, commander of Air Combat Command; and Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan, commander of Air Mobility Command https://www.afa.org/events/2022-air-space-cyber-conference

8:30 a.m. — Foundation for the Defense of Democracies discussion: “Assessing America’s Cyber Resiliency: A Conversation,” with co-chairs of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); moderated by Tim Starks, author of the Cybersecurity 202 newsletter at The Washington Post. https://www.fdd.org/events/2022/09/21/assessing-americas-cyber-resiliency

8:45 a.m. 1735 New York Ave. N.W. — Defense Strategies Institute 11th Military Tactical Communications Summit, with Deondray Wesley, branch head of Tactical and Public Safety Communications at DoD-CIO; Army CIO Raj Iyer; Army Maj. Gen. Christopher Eubank, commanding general at the Army Network Enterprise Technology Command; and Space Systems Command CIO Air Force Col. Albert Olagbemiro Note: Closed press. https://tacticalcommunications.dsigroup.org/

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “New Paradigm for Cyber Competition: A Conversation on Cyber Persistent Theory," with Emily Goldman, director of U.S. Cyber Command/National Security Agency Combined Action Group; Richard Harknett, co-director of the Ohio Cyber Range Institute; and Michael Fischerkeller, research staff member at the Institute for Defense Analyses' Information, Technology and Systems Division https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/21/new-paradigm-for-cyber-competition

10:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: "Deepening U.S.-Japan Alliance Cooperation in the Face of Global Challenges," with retired Japan Air Self-Defense Force Gen. Yoshiyuki Sugiyama, president of the Japan-America Air Force Goodwill Association; former Assistant Defense Secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs retired Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Wallace Gregson; and Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Stimson Center's Japan Program https://www.stimson.org/event/deepening-u-s-japan-alliance

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: "Update on the Implementation of Recommendations of the Independent Review Commission on Sexual Assault in the Military and the Establishment of the Office of Special Trial Counsels,” with testimony from Gilbert Cisneros, undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Gabe Camarillo, undersecretary of the Army; Erik Raven, undersecretary of the Navy; and Gina Ortiz Jones, undersecretary of the Air Force https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. — House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing: Putin’s Proxies: Examining Russia’s Use of Private Military Companies,” with testimony from Kimberly Marten, professor, Political Science Department, Barnard College, Columbia University; Catrina Doxsee, associate director, Transnational Threats Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Joseph Siegle, director of research, Africa Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University https://oversight.house.gov/news/press-releases

3:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Personnel hearing on the status of military recruiting and retention efforts across the Department of Defense, with testimony from Stephanie Miller, deputy assistant secretary of defense for military personnel policy; Lt. Gen. Douglas Stitt, deputy army chief of staff; Vice Adm. Rick Cheeseman, deputy chief of naval operations personnel, manpower and training; Lt. Gen. Caroline Miller, deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and service, U.S. Air Force; and Michael Strobl, assistant deputy commandant for manpower and reserve affairs, U.S. Marine Corps https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 22

8:45 a.m. 1735 New York Ave. N.W. — Defense Strategies Institute 11th Military Tactical Communications Summit, with Retired Army Futures Command CIO Wade Johnston; Air Force Lt. Col. Gabriel Avilla, chief of the Cyberspace Transformation Division in the Directorate of Cyberspace and Information Dominance Air Combat Command; and Special Operations Command COO of Networks and Services Army Col. Joseph Pishock Note: Closed press https://tacticalcommunications.dsigroup.org/

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Spacepower Forum discussion on Space Force training, education and doctrine and STARCOM’s contributions to space warfighting, with Maj. Gen. Shawn Bratton, commander, Space Training and Readiness Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Learning to Win: Using Operational Innovation to Regain the Advantage at Sea against China," with Trent Hone, vice president of ICF; Dmitry Filipoff, director of online content at the Center for International Maritime Security; Michael Hunzeker, associate professor at George Mason University; and Bryan Clark, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2149-learning-to-win

1 p.m. — GovExec and HP with Intel event: “Securing the Air Force,” with Air Force officials: Aaron Bishop, chief information security officer; Jay Bonci, chief technology officer, OCIO; Colt Whittall, chief experience officer; Stuart Wagner, chief digital transformation officer; and Tommy Garder, Chief Technology Officer, HP Federal https://events.govexec.com/securing-air-force

3 p.m. 300 E St. S.W. — National Aeronautics and Space Administration briefing on Double Asteroid Redirection Test's (DART) final activities before its impact with Dimorphos. https://socialforms.nasa.gov/DART-Pre-Impact-Press-Briefing

FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 23

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion China's Next Act: How Sustainability and Technology are Reshaping China's Rise and the World's Future, with author Scott Moore, director of the University of Pennsylvania's China Programs and Strategic Initiatives; Carla Freeman, senior expert on China, U.S. Institute of Peace; and Andrew Mertha, director of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies' China Global Research Center https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-chinas-next-act-scott-m-moore

11 a.m. 760 Maine Avenue S.W. — 2022 Atlantic Festival discussion: “Threats to Democracy: The Latest on the Course of the War in Ukraine,” with White House Chief of Staff Ronald Klain https://hopin.com/events/atlantic-festival

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