for The Hill

Democrats’ midterm election prospects are brightening as voters’ attention shifts from high prices to abortion and the Republicans’ subservience to former President Trump and rightwing extremism.   

By striking down the constitutional right to abortion, the Supreme Court has galvanized suburban women. According to liberal analyst Ruy Teixeira, Democrats now have a 27-point lead among white, college-educated women in party matchups. The ruling has thrown Republican candidates on the defensive and is spurring higher Democratic registration and turnout.

Damning testimony by former Trump White House officials in the Jan. 6 hearings, plus Trump’s inexplicable refusal to hand over top secret documents he illegally took home after leaving the White House, also seems to be moving independent voters back toward the Democrats.

Most political oddsmakers still expect Republicans to take control of the House, but they now call the Senate a tossup or favor Democrats slightly to hold it. Given the usual midterm trends, a split verdict in November would be a major victory for President Biden and his party.