It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.   

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THE POLITICAL ECONOMY
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

We’re nearly 60 days out from the midterms and, heck yeah, this feels like a critical juncture for the election. But it is also a potential flex point for the economy – how voters see it and who is benefitting or struggling.

We thought we’d take a multidisciplinary approach to understanding all of that, dolloping the economy’s vital signs, recent polling and the experiences of individual Americans together to create a gourmet plate of thought.

How is the economy doing?
* In a word, the economy is strange ([link removed]) . (Economists themselves are ([link removed]) confused ([link removed]) and cloven ([link removed]) .)
* On one hand, U.S. gross domestic product sagged ([link removed]) in the first two quarters of the year, 0.4 and 0.2 percent, just checking the boxes for one definition of a recession. And last month, the Conference Board assessed recession risk has gone up, after its Leading Economic Indicator also dropped.
* But. The unemployment rate remains low - 3.7 percent in August ([link removed]) . Employers are creating hundreds of thousands of jobs ([link removed]) and more workers are participating ([link removed]) in the job market.
* And Inflation is improving, barely. New data out today ([link removed]) show the consumer price index ticked down 0.2 percentage points in August. It remains startlingly high at 8.3 percent overall, but the inflation trend remains downward. However, the jobs market and inflation both remain overheated enough to spark a rare warning from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He said ([link removed]) there could be necessary economic pain ahead as he pushes for interest rate increases to counter inflation.

How are workers doing?

As Labor Day approached a few weeks ago, we rolled the social media dice and asked a question on Twitter. As we expected, our NewsHour readers brought us thoughtful and insightful responses.

Our ask ([link removed]) : What kind of work are you in and what's that like now – in terms of your life and livelihood?

The answers told a tale of two workforces, one struggling and overworked and another satisfied and finding flexibility. Here are a few standout responses, running from those who are exuberant to those who are exhausted.
* @F8thfulPolitics: I do occupational safety for a nonprofit that helps people with disabilities. It’s my dream job and pays for my podcast!
* @bradleydlewis: Testing benefits for a healthcare company. Hours and pay are good, better than before. Whole team is work from home now, which I started doing summer 2019 and beat the trend a little. I am booming personally.
* @DMZande: Part-time tech (and a little spiritual direction) help at a Jesuit retreat house near Detroit. It's low pay but we can afford that. It's good. :) Was 9-5 tech at a large company, but it wasn't healthy.
* @nicolebakes4you: Work on/for a major college campus in food service. Pay is ok but it’s the “do more work with less people” attitude. My direct bosses are great and understand work/life balance but people above them do not. Struggling a bit to pay bills at times but not a major/constant concern.
* @DrShade: In health pediatric health care and working this holiday weekend. It’s hard, patients are sicker, longer, wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, finding affordable child care with wkend/holiday hrs is impossible.
* @LindellGirl: Many of my friends husbands in their 50’s, in mid level management, lost their jobs during the pandemic. These men are having trouble finding work. The wives are the primary bread winners & run the household carrying the burden. People in their 50’s aren’t booming.
* @SuannGreco: Help run my husband’s private medical practice. The last ten years have been stressful and exhausting between keeping up on insurance regulations, electronic medical record systems and the pandemic. Retiring soon. Feel like we are getting out just in time.

Watch our segment with more worker thoughts here ([link removed]) .

So where are voters and the economy?

Voters are as confused and, at times, confusing as the economy itself.

One thing still stands. The question has been asked by different polling companies and in different ways, but since the beginning of the year, Americans have repeatedly said their top issue is the economy.

But the strength of that feeling is changing. Our latest NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll ([link removed]) laid this out.

Inflation is still the biggest issue, but less so. At the start of September, 30 percent of people told us inflation is a top concern for them. That was a significant drop from the 37 percent it had been in July. Taking into account the margin of error, that’s a change of somewhere between 3 and 11 points in just six weeks earlier.
Image by Megan McGrew
What’s changed? Or rather, who has changed?
Take a look at gender. Men, especially suburban men, are the most worried about inflation. The group with the single largest amount of inflation concern were suburban/small city men. Forty percent said inflation is top of mind this month. And that figure has not changed since July ([link removed]) .

What has changed is the sentiment of women.

Thirty-two percent of women overall were worried about the economy in July. The figure now? It is down to 23 percent. And in those key battleground suburbs, where men strongly are worried about inflation? Women’s concern about inflation is dropping more profoundly. Just 17 percent of suburban women say inflation is top of mind now. That’s compared with 32 percent in July — a drop of nearly half. In six weeks.

What is happening? Abortion. In July, 21 percent of women told us abortion, as an issue, was top of mind. Now, the figure is 30 percent. It is women’s top concern.

The responses right now from women voters – a substantial and important voting group that seems highly motivated and no longer focused on economic issues seen as harmful to the left – is what Democrats cling to.

For Republicans, the converse is true. They are hoping the economic concerns held by men spread and undermine ruling Democrats’ chances at the ballot.

One critical data point is not changing. The election will be Nov. 8.
More on the midterms from our coverage:
* Watch: Democratic groups are spending money on Republican primaries to nominate less appealing opponents ([link removed]) .
* One Big Question: But why are Democrats doing this? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report discuss the calculus ([link removed]) behind this decision.
* A Close Look: There are close to three dozen midterm contests this year that could sway the balance of power in the Senate. We look at the closest races ([link removed]) .
* Perspectives: Two months before Election Day, what matters to voters ([link removed]) now is inflation. Abortion too. How will that weigh on each party? The Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart and Michael Gerson weigh in.

#POLITICSTRIVIA
President Ronald Reagan stands alongside Queen Elizabeth II during her 1983 trip to the U.S. Photo courtesy of the National Archives

By Dan Cooney, @IAmDanCooney ([link removed])
Social Media Producer/Coordinator

Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

The late Queen Elizabeth II’s 70-year reign spanned 14 U.S. presidents – seven Republicans and seven Democrats. The most recent, President Joe Biden, visited the queen in June 2021 during an overseas trip to the United Kingdom.

The queen’s five visits to the U.S. as queen were all during Republican administrations — Dwight Eisenhower, Gerald Ford, Ronald Regan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

Our question: From 1951 to 2022, Elizabeth met in person with every sitting U.S. president – except for one. Who was it?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Which founding father played a principal role in drafting the Massachusetts Constitution?

The answer: John Adams ([link removed]) . It took him about a month to write the Constitution of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. And the document’s believed to be the oldest, still-functioning written constitution in the world ([link removed].) .

Congratulations to our winners: Ed Witt and Tim Smith!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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