BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

ANATOMY OF A ROUT: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky now claims his troops have retaken virtually all of the northern Kharkiv province, reclaimed more than 3,700 square miles, and in some cases driven bedraggled and beaten Russian troops back over the border.

“From the beginning of September until today, our warriors have already liberated more than 6,000 square kilometers of the territory of Ukraine in the east and south,” Zelensky said last night. “The movement of our troops continues.”

“It's clear they're fighting hard,” said a senior U.S. military official at a Pentagon briefing yesterday. “We assess that Russian forces have largely ceded their gains to the Ukrainians and have withdrawn. To the north and east, many of these forces have moved over the border into Russia.”

The official said the Ukrainian troops, armed with advanced U.S. weapons and detailed battlefield intelligence, were able to exploit Russian weak points and present Russian commanders “with multiple dilemmas along the forward line of troops,” which changed the “dynamics on the battlefield.”

“The Ukrainians are conducting operations that are forcing the Russians to make decisions on the battlefield about where they're going to apply their resources,” the official said. “And as we've seen, given the challenges that they have, from a sustainment and logistics standpoint, as well as from a command-and-control standpoint, it's a very hard problem to solve.”

UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE RECAPTURES MORE RUSSIAN-CONQUERED TERRITORY

RUSSIAN MORALE ‘IN THE TOILET’: A major factor in the collapse of Russia’s front line troops is sagging morale after six months of grinding combat in which Russian troops have been poorly led and lack basic supplies, according to the Pentagon.

“Put yourself in the shoes of that Russian who's not getting paid, he's on the front line, doesn't know what he's doing, he hasn't been re-supplied, and he has been hounded for the last six months while living in a trench,” said retired Army Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, former commanding general of Europe for the Seventh Army, on CNN.

“It was a rout,” Hertling said. “You have to consider the morale of the forces that's being routed and what I would tell you, the morale of the Russian forces since about March has been in the toilet.”

“They've done it masterfully,” Hertling said of Ukraine's strategy of targeting holes in Russia’s overstretched front lines, “and they've been coordinating, quite frankly, with their European allies and the U.S. to look for weak spots. They've been getting intelligence, where are the Russian forces weak? How can we exploit that? View reconnaissance, find where the holes are, and then push a force through.”

WILL PUTIN REACT IN DESPERATION? While the Kremlin pretends everything is going to plan and its “special military operation” is on track to meet all its goals, there’s no hiding the humiliating defeat suffered in recent days.

Deputies from 18 municipal districts in Moscow and St. Petersburg have signed a two-sentence petition calling the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin “detrimental to Russia and its citizens' future,” and demanding his resignation, a rare public rebuke that could put them in danger.

The big question now is whether out of desperation Putin will unleash the full force of his military in an attempt to regain the initiative and perhaps save his regime from collapse.

“I have been pretty shocked at how restrained Moscow has been in this war, thinking through all of the pieces of military hardware they could bring to bear,” writes Harry Kazianis, president and CEO of Rogue States Project, a national security think tank. “At what point does Putin throw caution to the wind and throw the total weight of Russia’s military at Ukraine? At what point does he say the hell with losing fighters and bombers to Kyiv’s air defenses and flood the sky with everything he has?”

“Yes, Ukraine has turned the corner, and that is to be celebrated, sure. But this war is far from over, and we should never get excited when a nuclear weapons state starts losing a conflict,” Kazianis warns. “A lot can go wrong, and options for escalation start to look mighty tempting for sure.”

BOLTON: PUTIN 'IS A LOT CLOSER' TO USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN UKRAINE

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate Armed Services Committee meets at 9:30 a.m. for a full committee hearing on the nomination of Space Force Lt. Gen. Bradley “Salty” Saltzman for a fourth star and appointment as chief of space operations.

Saltzman has served as the deputy chief of space operations, nuclear, and cyber since 2020. If confirmed, he will succeed Gen. John "Jay" Raymond, who was named the first chief of space operations after the U.S. Space Force was created in 2019.

ELITE RUSSIAN UNIT ‘SEVERELY WEAKENED’: In its daily intelligence update, the British Defense Ministry says that among the Russian troops who were routed in the Kharkiv region were elements of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, “one of the most prestigious of Russia’s armies, allocated for the defense of Moscow, and intended to lead counter-attacks in the case of a war with NATO.”

“1 GTA suffered heavy casualties in the initial phase of the invasion and had not been fully reconstituted prior to the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv,” the ministry tweeted. “With 1 GTA and other [Western Military District] formations severely degraded, Russia’s conventional force designed to counter NATO is severely weakened. It will likely take years for Russia to rebuild this capability.”

The Associated Press reported that Russian troops were “surrendering en masse,” citing Ukrainian military intelligence and a Ukrainian presidential adviser who said there were so many prisoners of war that the country was running out of space to accommodate them.

US BEHIND IN 'FIERCE TECHNOLOGY COMPETITION WITH CHINA’: A new report from the Special Competitive Studies Project is warning that the U.S. is at risk of being eclipsed by China in areas of new technology that will be crucial to future military operations.

The report, “Mid-Decade Challenges to National Competitiveness,” has a stark message. “The United States could lose the competition if dramatic action is not taken across a broad range of public policy arenas to invest in U.S. technology advantages, strengthen the techno-industrial base, and deploy disruptive technologies democratically and responsibly.”

“In our judgment, China leads the United States in 5G, commercial drones, offensive hypersonic weapons, and lithium battery production. The United States has modest leads in biotech, quantum computing, commercial space technologies, and cloud computing, but these could flip to the China column,” the report says. “In the AI competition, the United States has a small lead with China catching up quickly … In all critical emerging technology sectors, China is making massive investments to catch up or take the lead.”

“We cannot keep playing catch-up like we have on 5G and microelectronics supply chains. The United States needs to organize, make strategic tech bets, help resource technology sectors and applications, and adapt our national security tools,” said the project’s CEO Ylli Bajraktari.

The Special Competitive Studies Project — an outgrowth congressionally-mandated National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence — was led by former Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work and Google co-founder Eric Schmidt.

EXPECT A ‘CR’ NEXT WEEK: Unable to meet the Sept. 30 deadline to pass the 12 funding bills, Congress is poised to pass another stop-gap “continuing resolution,” or CR, to keep the government funded until mid-December, expiring either on the 9th or 16th.

A mid-December deadline would give the Democrats a chance to pass the budget before Republicans take control of the House or Senate, depending on the results of the November midterm elections.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian counteroffensive recaptures more Russian-conquered territory

Washington Examiner: Bolton: Putin 'is a lot closer' to using nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Xi and Putin to meet this week as Ukrainian counteroffensive erodes Russia's gain

Washington Examiner: What’s in a name? Three words between Taiwan and war

Washington Examiner: Opinion: China's Li Zhanshu offers a very bold endorsement of Russia's war in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Justice delayed: 21 years later, 9/11 plotters haven't faced trial

Washington Examiner: Armenian prime minister says 49 soldiers killed in latest attack by Azerbaijan

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Afghanistan remains a cauldron of terrorists

AP: Ukraine piles pressure on retreating Russian troops

Washington Post: Ukraine Extends Gains In Kharkiv

New York Times: As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, So Does Criticism Back Home

Wall Street Journal: Kyiv to Ask for More Weapons From West

AP: UN nuclear chief pushes for deal on nuke plant safety zone

CNN: Blinken Calls Iran's Latest Response To Nuclear Deal Proposal A 'Step Backward'

Yonhap: S. Korea Warns N. Korea's Nuclear Use Would Lead To Regime's 'Self-Destruction'

Air Force Magazine: Bioweapons Designed by AI: a ‘Very Near-Term Concern,’ Schmidt Says

Defense News: US Air Force warns of aging fighters, poor purchasing efforts

Asia Times: Australia Wants B-21 Stealth Bombers To Check China

Air Force Magazine: Raptor Rebellion

Defense News: GE Adaptive Engine for F-35 Finishes Testing, Preps for New Phase

Washington Post: US Ramps Up Aid for Pakistan Floods With Military Airlift

Washington Times: Russia Flies Two Reconnaissance Aircraft In Restricted Zone Near Alaska On Sept. 11

Marine Corps Times: Marriage, Tattoo Shifts Popular For Marine Embassy Security Applicants

WUSA-TV: Marine Corps Marathon Returns With In-Person Events For The First Time Since 2019

19fortyfive.com: Ukraine's Big Offensive Against Russia: Designed by U.S. Special Forces?

19fortyfive.com: These Maps and Videos Show How Ukraine's 'Blitzkrieg' Offensive Shocked Russia

19fortyfive.com: Watch: Russia Has Abandoned Some Of Its Most Powerful Artillery in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Putin May Not Even Know Russia Is Losing the War in Ukraine

Forbes: Not Your Father’s Chinook: The Army’s Biggest, Fastest Helicopter Is Poised For Further Performance Gains

Calendar

TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 13

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Lt. Gen. Bradley C. Saltzman, to be promoted to general and Chief of Space Operations https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nomination

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "Technology, Innovation, and Defending America," with Michael Brown, director, DOD’s Defense Innovation Unit https://www.hudson.org/events/2147-technology-innovation

12:30 p.m. — New America and Arizona State University annual Future Security Forum, with Jen Easterly, director, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; Joshua Geltzer, deputy assistant to the president and deputy homeland security adviser, National Security Council; Maj. Gen. Steven Edwards, incoming commander, Special Operations Command Europe; CMC Pete Musselman, senior enlisted leader, Special Operations Command Europe; and retired Maj. Gen. Michael Repass, NATO strategic adviser for special operations, Ukraine, former deputy commander of Special Operations Command Europe and former commanding general, U.S. Army Special Forces Command https://events.newamerica.org/futuresecurityforum2022

1 p.m. — American University's School of International Service virtual discussion: "Taiwan, China, and the U.S. in the Wake of Speaker Pelosi's Visit," with Jessica Drun, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub; Ryan Hass, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund's Asia Program; James Lin, assistant professor at the University of Washington; and Joseph Torigan, professor at AU's School of International Service https://www.eventbrite.com/e/taiwan-china-and-the-us

1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Securing the Air Force: A Dispatch from DAFITC (Department of the Air Force Information Technology and Cyberpower)” with Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategy, Integration and Requirements Lt. Gen. Clint Hinote https://events.govexec.com/securing-air-force

WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 14

8 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “The Ukraine War: Lessons for Taiwan," with Taiwan Parliament member Freddy Lim; Anna Fotyga, member of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group; Lai I-Chung, president of the Prospect Foundation; and Helena Legarda, lead analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies https://www.gmfus.org/event/ukraine-war-lessons-taiwan

11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual event: "State of Defense: Navy," with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday https://d1stateofdefense.com/

1 p.m. — Federal News Network virtual 2022 Cloud Exchange forum: “National security and law enforcement," with Nick Ward, CIO of the Drug Enforcement Administration; and James Wolff, CIO of the National Nuclear Security Administration, delivers keynote remarks https://federalnewsnetwork.com/cme-event/federal-insights

1 p.m. — Atlantic Council discussion with the families of flight PS752 victims, shot down by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards on a January 8, 2020 flight from Tehran to Kyiv, Ukraine with Amirali Alavi, director and chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim's Legal Committee; Kourosh Doustshenas, director and chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim's Government and Stakeholder Relations Committee; Navaz Ebrahim, director and chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim's Public Relations Committee; Hamed Esmaeilion, president and spokesperson of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim's; Javad Soleimani, chair of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim's Fact-Finding Committee; Alborz Sadeghi, member of the Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victim's Legal Committee; and Haydee Dijkstal, barrister at 33 Bedford Row RSVP at [email protected]

THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 15

8 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "The U.S.-Australia Alliance on the Anniversary of AUKUS," with Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis.; Andrew Hastie, member of the Parliament of Australia; Brian Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson; and Peter Rough, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2145-the-us-australia-alliance

9 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on "My 'Hell' in Russian Captivity," with Yuliia Paievska, Ukrainian veteran and volunteer paramedic; and Hanna Hopko, co-founder of the International Center for Ukrainian Victory and former Ukraine Parliament chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs https://www.youtube.com/HelsinkiCommission

10 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nomination of Air Force Gen. Anthony J. Cotton to be commander, U.S. Strategic Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

10 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. National Harbor, Maryland — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance 2022 Intelligence and National Security Summit, with Jeanette McMillan, assistant director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center's Supply Chain and Cyber Directorate; Halimah Najieb-Locke, deputy assistant Defense secretary for industrial base resilience; Principal Deputy Defense CIO Kelly Fletcher; Central Intelligence Agency CTO Nand Mulchandani; Margie Palmieri, deputy chief digital and AI officer at the Defense Department Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office; Lori Wade, intelligence community chief data officer and assistant director of national intelligence for data and partnership interoperability in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; Greg Ryckman, deputy director for global integration at the Defense Intelligence Agency; Brig. Gen. Gregory Gagnon, director of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance at the Space Force; Leonel Garciga, director of information management at the Army; Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback, deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and cyber effects operations at the Air Force; Coast Guard Assistant Commandant For Intelligence Rear Adm. Rebecca Ore; Maj. Gen. William Seely, intelligence director at the Marine Corps; and Vice Adm. Jeff Trussler, deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare https://intelsummit.org/#

11 a.m. — Middle East Institute online event: “Beyond Post-Desert Storm: The Future of the U.S.-Kuwait Security Partnership," with Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security; retired Army Gen. Michael Garrett, former commanding general of U.S. Army Forces Command; and Bilal Saab, MEI senior fellow and director of the Defense and Security Program https://www.mei.edu/events/beyond-post-desert-storm

12 p.m. — New America virtual discussion: "Leaving Afghanistan," with Humaira Rahbin, Afghanistan observatory scholar at New America; Mir Abdullah Miri, Afghanistan observatory scholar at New America; Vanessa Gezari, national security editor at the Intercept; and Candace Rondeaux, director of New America's Future Frontlines https://www.newamerica.org/international-security

12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What next for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?" with Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association; Nasser Hadian, professor of political science at the University of Tehran; and Azadeh Zamirirad, deputy head of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs' Africa and Middle East Division https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/what-next

2 p.m. — House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing: Putin’s Proxies: Examining Russia’s Use of Private Military Companies,” with testimony from Kimberly Marten, professor, Political Science Department, Barnard College, Columbia University; Catrina Doxsee, associate director, Transnational Threats Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Joseph Siegle, director of research, Africa Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University https://oversight.house.gov/news/press-releases

FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 16

10:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Americans held hostage abroad," with Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

11 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: "Russia in the Arctic," with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Doug Jones; Principal Defense Department Director for the Arctic and Global Resilience Greg Pollock; former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands; Rebecca Pincus, assistant professor at the U.S. Naval War College; Katarzyna Zysk, professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies; and Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow at CNAS https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-russia-in-the-arctic

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