No. 69 - September 12th, 2022
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A Message from the Comptroller
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Dear New Yorkers,
As inflation continues to bite into purchasing power for households (though thankfully at a slightly slower rate), this month’s spotlight takes a look at the economic impacts of raising the minimum wage. The minimum wage in New York City rose from $7.25 in 2013 to $15 by 2019. Our analysis compares job, business and wage growth in New York City to cities that did not raise the minimum wage. The findings: the higher minimum wage coincided with a period of strong job growth, higher average wages and reduced poverty.
Regular readers will notice that this month’s “Spotlight” analysis comes in front of our monthly overview of trends in the labor, housing, transit, and city finance data. We are considering other changes to this newsletter to ensure it delivers useful, interesting information to you each month.
We would like your feedback! Please take our short survey here to tell us what you value in this newsletter and what other kinds of information or analysis you would like to see. Thanks!
Sincerely,
Brad Lander
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Spotlight
Impact of Recent Minimum Wage Increases on NYC Employment, Earnings, and Poverty
In this month’s spotlight, we look at employment, earnings, and poverty rates for workers in minimum wage-heavy industries, as the minimum wage in New York City was increased by State law from the Federal level of $7.25 in 2013 to $15 for all workers by 2020 (Table S1). The evidence suggests that increases in the minimum wage corresponded with a period of strong job growth, higher wages, and reduced poverty. This analysis provides useful context as policymakers in Albany consider whether today’s minimum wage should be increased to keep pace with inflation.
Table S1: Minimum Wage Increases in New York City, 2013-2020
Following and expanding on academic research published in 2019[1], we use Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to compare New York City to 12 other cities[2] that did not have minimum wage increases in the 2013 to 2019 period. We compare: (i) job growth; (ii) establishment growth; and (iii) average weekly wages, ending the analysis in 2019 due to the large impact of COVID-19 in 2020. We first look at industry level data for all jobs in New York City regardless of place of residence. Two industries employ the majority of minimum wage workers at the national level: Leisure and Hospitality (about three-fifths of all workers paid at or below the federal minimum wage were employed in this industry, almost entirely in restaurants and other food services[3]) and Retail Trade (one quarter of workers paid at the federal minimum wage were employed in this industry).
Job Growth
The empirical literature on the impact of minimum wage increases on employment is mixed, but recent findings suggest that city-level minimum wage changes do not have a discernible effect on employment.[4] In the case of New York City, between 2013 and 2019 private employment grew by 18.3% (from 3.3 million to 3.9 million), compared to an average of 14.2% in twelve U.S. cities that did not increase the minimum wage (from 9.2 million to 10.5 million), and 11.9% in the U.S. overall (from 113 million to 126 million).[5] Within New York City, employment grew faster in the outer boroughs (23.2%, from 1.3 million to 1.6 million) than it did in Manhattan (15.1%, from 2 million to 2.3 million) (Table S1).
As in the rest of the country, a disproportionate share of minimum wage workers in New York City are employed in Accommodation and Food Services, and Retail Trade. The Accommodation and Food Services industry here employed 304,000 workers in 2013 (9.2% of private employment) and 370,000 workers in 2019 (9.5% of the private employment). The Retail Trade industry in New York City employed 336,000 workers in 2013 (10.2% of private employment) and 344,000 workers in 2019 (8.8% of the private employment).
Accommodation and food services industry employment grew faster in New York City (21.7%) compared to the 12-city average (18.1%) and the nation (15.3%), mostly driven by high growth outside of Manhattan (31.8%) between 2013 and 2019. Nearly half (49%) of New Yorkers working in Accommodation and Food Services reported earning $15 an hour or less in 2019,[6] suggesting minimum wage increases did not have a material impact on employment growth. We also show employment growth in food and drink services, a subcategory of accommodation and food services, and two subcategories of food and drink services: full-service restaurants and limited-service restaurants. The data shows that employment in limited-service restaurants (which include fast food restaurants that had a more rapid phase-in of minimum wage increases) grew faster in New York City (31.2%) and faster in Manhattan (41.6%) than the outer boroughs (23.1%). Overall, New York City growth (31.2%) was much faster than in the 12 comparison cities (20.2%) and the nation (17.8%). Employment in full-service restaurants, on the other hand, where tipped workers are most likely to work (and hence may not be impacted as much by minimum wage growth) grew slightly more slowly by 15.5% in New York City compared to 15.1% in the 12 comparison cities and 11.9% in the nation.
Retail Trade employment only grew by 2.5% in New York City, compared to a 12-city average of 5.3% and national average of 3.5%. However, Retail Trade employment in the boroughs outside of Manhattan Retail Trade employment grew by 8.5%, faster than the 12-city average (5.3%) and the nation (3.5%), even though retail employers in the outer boroughs faced the same minimum wage increases. This suggests that the slower growth overall cannot necessarily be attributed to the increase in the minimum wage, but may be due to other factors such as higher rents and the rise in on-line shopping.[7]
Table S2: Change in Employment by Industry, 2013-19
Private Establishment Growth
Between 2013 and 2019, the total number of private establishments (private businesses with employees on payroll) grew 7.8% in New York City between 2013 and 2019, slower than the 12 comparison cities (13.5%) and the U.S. (11.4%).[8]Manhattan businesses grew more slowly (3.2%) than the outer boroughs (12.2%) and the nation (13.5%). Yet growth of establishments in Accommodation and Food Services, where minimum wage work is concentrated, was higher in New York City (20.1%) compared to the 12 cities (17.9%) and the U.S. (11.6%). Once again, the outer boroughs had higher growth (26.8%) than Manhattan (12.1%). Sub-industries of Accommodation and Food Services show similar patterns, with establishment growth higher in outer boroughs than in the 12 comparison cities and in the U.S. overall. The number of Retail Trade establishments was stagnant in New York City (grew by 0.2%) due to declines in Manhattan (-8.5%). The other boroughs had growth in line with the comparison cities (5.0% vs. 5.3% respectively), and growth higher than the nation (0.8%).
Table S3: Change in Employment by Industry, 2013-19
Weekly Earnings Growth
Increasing the minimum wage will generally have a positive impact on overall wages earned, but these gains may be partially offset by employers reducing the average working hours of their employees.[9] Table 4 shows that weekly earnings in minimum wage intensive industries grew significantly faster in New York City than in comparison cities. Overall private sector average weekly wages in New York City grew by 16.6% (from $1,611 to $1,879) similar to the growth rate in comparison cities (15.7%, from $811 to $950) and just below the national average of 19% (from $956 to $1,138). The difference was larger and more visible in Accommodation and Food Services, where wages grew by 27.6% citywide (from $583 to $744) but only 18% in comparison cities (from $368 to $435) and 23.7% in the U.S. (from $350 to $433). Most of the increase is concentrated in limited-service restaurants, where average weekly wages increased by 48.4% in New York City (from $330 to $489) compared to only 14.3% (from $297 to $339) in comparison cities (that is more than triple growth) and 25.5% nationally (from $263 to $330). Wages in retail trade in New York City grew by 23.8% from $723 to $896), faster than comparison cities (17.3%, from $572 to $671) and the nation (19.9% from $539 to $646). The growth of wages in Retail Trade was faster in the outer boroughs (29.2%, from $533 to $689) than in Manhattan (23.6%, from $572 to $646).
Table S4: Change in Weekly Earnings by Industry, 2013-19
Impact on Household Income
In this section we focus on income for households where at least one household head worked in an occupation more likely to be paid minimum wage within the Accommodation and Food Services, and Retail Trade industries. We refer to these households as “minimum-wage” households. These occupations are food preparation and serving occupations,[10] first-line supervisors, cashiers, counter and rental clerks, and salespersons. We compare the median incomes of these minimum-wage households with the median incomes of households working in other industries both in New York City and in the U.S. overall, using data from the annual sample of the American Community Survey for 2013-2019.
Median household incomes increased faster in minimum-wage households, from $42,000 to $63,000 (by 50%) in New York City compared to others in NYC (by 30% from $70,000 to $91,000) and the rest of the nation in minimum-wage industries (by 24% from $46,800 to $58,000) showing the positive impact of minimum-wage increases on household finances between 2013 and 2019 (Chart S1).
Chart S1: Household Income in 2013 and 2019, by Minimum Wage Status in New York City and the Rest of the U.S.
Impact on Poverty Rates
As household incomes rose (and rose disproportionately for minimum-wage households), the share of households in poverty or near poverty (defined as 150% of the Federal poverty threshold) declined between 2013 and 2019 (Chart S2). The decline was faster among minimum-wage households in New York City than among minimum-wage households in the rest of the country, and faster than the decline in poverty in households in other occupations in New York City. The poverty rate among minimum-wage households declined from 21% in 2013 to 14% in 2019 – a 7 percentage point decline. The percentage of minimum-wage households in near poverty declined from 16% in 2013 to 13% in 2019 – a 3 percentage point decline. By comparison, the share of minimum-wage households in poverty in the rest of the country declined by 4 percentage points (from 19% to 15%) and the share of these households in near poverty declined by 1 percentage point (from 12% to 11%).
Poverty declined more modestly in households with workers in other occupations. In New York City, the share of households with workers in non-minimum-wage occupations in poverty declined by 4 percentage points (from 11% to 7%) and the share in near poverty declined by 1 percentage point (from 7% to 6%). The faster decline in poverty and near poverty among New York City households in minimum-wage occupations, compared to similar households in the rest of the country, as well as New York City households in non-minimum wage occupations, suggests that minimum-wage increases helped reduce poverty and near-poverty rates.
Chart S2: Share of Households in and Near Poverty by Minimum Wage Status in New York City and Rest of the United States
Impact on Rent Burdens
Minimum-wage households (again, defined as households with workers in minimum-wage-heavy occupations) in New York City also saw a modest decline in their rent burdens. The share of rent-burdened minimum-wage households (defined by spending more than 30% or more of household income on rent and shown as sum of orange and blue areas) declined from 58% to 53%, with the decline driven by the severely-rent-burdened households (who spent more than 50% or more of their income on rent) (Chart S3). While this 5% decline was modest, it was still greater than the decline in rent burdens for minimum-wage households in the rest of the country (2 percentage points decline), and households in non-minimum-wage occupations in New York City (2 percentage points decline).
Chart S3: Share of Households that are Rent Burdened and Severely Rent Burdened by Minimum-Wage Status in New York City and Rest of the United States
Conclusion
Between 2013 and 2019, as the minimum wage increased from $7.25 to $15 an hour in New York City, economic growth in industries reliant on minimum wage workers outpaced that of other U.S. cities where the minimum wage did not increase, and that of the U.S. overall.
Over the same period, weekly earnings and household income of New Yorkers working in minimum-wage occupations grew faster, and poverty rates and rent burdens fell faster than for those in similar occupations elsewhere.
While further research on other demographic and economic trends would undoubtedly be useful to understanding this pattern of economic growth, minimum wage increases in New York City appear to have worked as intended to improve the lives of hard-working New Yorkers and been a net positive for the City’s economy.
Spotlight Prepared by: Selçuk Eren, Senior Economist.
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The U.S. Economy
- U.S. employment surpassed the pre-pandemic jobs peak of February 2020 for the first time in August, as nonfarm payroll employment rose by 315,000, led by 68,000 jobs in professional and business services.
- The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in August, up from 3.5% in July.
- Average hourly earnings in August rose 10 cents to $32.36, a 0.3% increase from July.
- In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items was up 8.5% from the previous year, down from the 40-year high of 9.1% in June. New York metropolitan area inflation dropped to an annual rate of 6.5% in July, from 6.7% in June.
- After increasing the targeted federal funds rate by 75 basis points on July 27th, Federal Reserve officials signaled, and markets are now expecting, another 75-basis point increase at the next Federal Open Market Committee on September 20-21st. Chair Powell has indicated he is worried about “prematurely loosening policy” and will continue to fight inflation even if the consequence is “some pain” from slower growth.[1]
- The global economic situation remains troubled. European countries are in an energy crisis stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and likely headed toward recession.[2]The strength of the U.S. dollar is impacting economies worldwide.[3] China’s zero Covid policy lockdowns have led to a decline in growth there.[4]
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NYC Labor Markets
- On a seasonally adjusted basis, New York City added about 30,000 private jobs in July across a wide range of industries. Private employment is now at 3.96 million, about 96.3% of the employment peak of 4.1 million in February 2020 (Table 1).
- Employment in the City’s Information sector is now 12,300 (5.4%) above pre-pandemic levels, and employment in Healthcare and Social Assistance 32,200 (3.9%) above pre-pandemic levels.
- Despite overall growth, employment in the sectors hit hardest by COVID has yet to fully recover. Employment in Retail Trade remains 38,800 (-11.2%) below the pre-COVID peak, and employment in Accommodation and Food Services remains 58,200 (-15.5%) jobs lower.
Table 1: Seasonally Adjusted NYC Private Employment, by Industry ('000s)
SOURCE: NYS DOL, and NYC Office of the Comptroller. Due to revisions to earlier months, numbers may not match to previous monthly newsletters
- New York City’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.1% in July, from 6.0% in June (not shown below). August figures will be available from the New York State Department of Labor on September 15th.
- Unemployment rates for Black (10.2%) and Hispanic (9.0%) New Yorkers remain above the citywide rate (Chart 1).
Chart 1
SOURCE: Current Population Survey
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NYC Business Conditions
- Wall Street profits fell to $5.78 billion in the 2nd quarter of 2022, down from $7.76 billion in the first quarter of 2022, and $13.04 billion in the 2nd quarter of 2021 (Chart 2). Profits have been impacted by a sharply declining stock market and rising borrowing costs. In the first half of 2022, profits declined 56% relative to the first half of 2021.
Chart 2
SOURCE: Intercontinental Exchange, member firms doing business with the public
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New equity financing of private companies in the New York City area fell to $6.4 billion in the 2nd quarter, down from $11.7 billion in the 1st quarter, and a peak of $18.0 billion in the 4th quarter of 2021 (Chart 3). U.S. venture capital financing fell from $70.1 billion in the 1st quarter, to $52.9 billion in the 2nd. New York City’s share of the U.S. total fell to 12%. Higher borrowing costs and recession worries have diminished the appeal of longer-term, riskier investments.
Chart 3
SOURCE: CBINSIGHTS, quarterly equity financing of private companies by location
- International passenger travel at New York City area airports rose by 473,000 in June to a monthly total of 3.86 million (Chart 4). The increase was much larger than the 332,145 increase in the pre-COVID month of June 2019.
- Despite the rebound, international travel remains well below the summer high of 5.2 million of August 2019.
Chart 4
SOURCE: Port Authority of NY and NJ, international revenue passengers
- The rebound in international travel has not carried over to New York City hotels, where room demand declined to 2.9 million in July, from 3.1 million in June, and is down 17% from 3.5 million in July 2019. Revenue per available room declined to around $200, from $250 in June.
- The divergence between rising international travel and flat hotel demand is likely explained by a rise in outbound international travel, with the increase in international passengers due more to Americans taking advantage of the strong dollar to take trips that were not possible during COVID restrictions, rather than to a strong increase of international visitors to NYC.
Chart 5
SOURCE: STR via CoStar
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NYC Real Estate & Housing
- Data from Streeteasy on broker listed apartment rentals (85% of which are in Manhattan and Brooklyn) shows a continuing surge in asking rents (Chart 7). Median rents rose to $3,582 in July, up from $3,500 in June, and $3,325 in May. Asking rents are up 34% from July a year ago, up 43% from pandemic lows, and up 24% from pre-pandemic high (Chart 6).
- The number of apartments listed as available rose to 32,174 in July, up from 30,815 in June, but remains well below a year ago (51,996 in June 2021).
Chart 6
SOURCE: Streeteasy.com
- The number of people in New York City homeless shelters rose to 53,538 on August 31st, up from 50,035 on July 31st, and 44,767 on August 31st, 2021, an annual increase of 8,771, or 19.6% (Chart 7).
- Most of the increase comes from a greater number of individuals in families with children, up 2,394 from the end of July, likely reflecting both typical summer increases and an increased number of asylum-seekers arriving by bus from the southern border.
- The residential market trends noted above and the influx of asylum-seekers will likely continue to drive up the shelter census. The NYC Department of Social Services has issued an RFP seeking to increase shelter capacity by 5,000 beds.
Chart 7
SOURCE: NYC Department of Homeless Services, via Opendata
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City Finances
- New York City collected $869 million in Commercial Rent Tax (CRT) in FY 2022 (between July ‘21 and June ‘22), an amount unchanged from the same period in FY 2021, but 4% below the peak of $907 million in FY 2019 (Chart 8). The CRT is levied on commercial tenants in Manhattan south of 96th Street who pay more than $250,000 in annual rent.
- The decline in CRT from 2019 is unusual and did not occur in previous recessions because higher commercial vacancies were offset by higher rents on new and renewed leases. As the City’s central business district suffers from reduced economic activity,[4]CRT revenues remain subdued despite the ongoing economic recovery.
Chart 8
SOURCE: FMS, recession periods are shaded
Cash Balances
- The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $6.3 billion as of Tuesday, September 6th compared to $5.8 billion at the same time last year (Chart 9).
- The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the fourth quarter of FY 2022 and new projections for cash balances through December 30th, 2022, are available here.
Chart 9
SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller
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Spotlight Endnotes
[1] See Moe L. Parrott J., Lathrop Y. (2019) New York City’s $15 Minimum Wage and Restaurant Employment and Earnings, http://www.nelp.org/publication/new-york-city-15-minimum-wage-restaurant-employment-earnings/. The 12 cities are Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Louisville, Memphis, Milwaukee, Nashville, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, and San Antonio.
[2] Comparison cities include Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Louisville, Memphis, Milwaukee, Nashville, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, and San Antonio.
[3] Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2019/home.htm#:~:text=The%20industry%20with%20the%20highest,hospitality%20(about%2010%20percent).
[4] "See Dube and Lindner (2021) for a detailed review and findings of recent empirical studies. Authors note that out of the eleven recent estimates that look at city-level minimum wage increases, seven have positive estimates (that is minimum wage increases led to employment increases) whereas four have negative sign for employment. Overall, authors suggest that employment elasticity estimates with respect to minimum wage changes center around zero. Source: City Limits: What Do Local-Area Minimum Wages Do? (aeaweb.org)"
[5] Population, on the other hand, grew slower in New York City between 2010 and 2020 (7.7%) compared to 12 city average (14%). We chose population growth between 2010 and 2020 because of well documented discrepancies between the yearly Census population estimates and the 2020 enumeration. The yearly Census estimates show a net population decline in NYC between 2013 and 2019. See NYC Department of City Planning (2022) Understanding NYC’s Population Trends, https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/planning/download/pdf/planning-level/nyc-population/population-estimates/understanding-current-population-trends-in-nyc.pdf.
[6] Source: Comptroller’s estimates from American Community Survey, 2019. IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org.
[7] Source: Retail Vacancy in New York City Trends and Causes, 2007-2017, https://comptroller.nyc.gov/reports/retail-vacancy-in-new-york-city/#growth-of-internet-shopping-has-changed-the-usage-of-retail-space
[8] July’s spotlight looks at changes in establishment count in more detail from historic perspective and recent changes. Establishment count in accommodation and food services declined from 2019 levels. Source: New York by the Numbers: Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook No. 67 – July 11th, 2022 : Office of the New York City Comptroller Brad Lander (nyc.gov)
[9] The change in hours worked in New York City appears small. Weekly hours in accommodation and food services and retail trade industries declined by approximately one hour between 2013 and 2019. Source: Comptroller’s estimates from American Community Survey. IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org.
[10] Food preparation and serving occupations include cooks, food preparation workers, bartenders, combined food preparation and serving workers (including fast food), counter attendant (cafeteria, food concession, and coffee shop), waiters and waitresses, food servers (nonrestaurant), miscellaneous food preparation and serving related workers including dining room and cafeteria attendants and bartender helpers, dishwasters, host and hostesses (restaurant, lounge, and coffee shop)
Endnotes
[1] See https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/europe-heading-recession-cost-living-crisis-deepens-2022-09-05/
[2] See https://fortune.com/2022/09/07/us-dollar-price-wreaking-havoc-across-pretty-much-every-country/
[3] See https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/05/china/china-covid-lockdown-74-cities-intl-hnk/index.html
[4] See https://comptroller.nyc.gov/newsroom/new-york-by-the-numbers-monthly-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-no-68-august-8th-2022/
[5] See https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/08/fed-chair-powell-vows-to-raise-rates-to-fight-inflation-until-the-job-is-done.html
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Contributors
The Comptroller thanks the following members of the Bureau of Budget for their contributions to this newsletter: Andrew McWilliam, Director of Economic Research; Selçuk Eren, Senior Economist; Steve Corson, Senior Research Analyst; Steven Giachetti, Chief Economist; Irina Livshits, Chief, Fiscal Analysis Division; Marcia Murphy, Senior Economist; Eng-Kai Tan, Bureau Chief – Budget; Krista Olson, Deputy Comptroller for Budget; and Francesco Brindisi, Executive Deputy Comptroller.
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