BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

‘RUSSIANS HAVE ACHIEVED MINOR TACTICAL SUCCESS’: The assessment of Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley is that six months into the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces remain stymied.

“The war is not over,” Milley cautioned as he spoke to reporters in Germany following the fifth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. “The Russians have achieved minor tactical success in various parts of eastern Ukraine, but so far, Russian strategic objectives have been defeated.”

“They've adjusted their strategy, the Russians have, and their tactics, but so [have] the Ukrainians. It's a war, and there is give and take, there's action, reaction, and counteraction,” he said. “But despite being outgunned and outmanned, the Ukrainians have demonstrated superior tactical proficiency, and they've demonstrated a superior will to fight.”

“The war is not over. Russia's a big country,” he repeated. “They have very serious ambitions with respect to Ukraine. So sustainment of Ukraine to continue their fight for their survival will be necessary … The nature of war is often unpredictable, but we are committed, shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine, to ensure they remain a free, independent, and sovereign country.”

800 MILES OF FRONT LINES: Milley’s “battlefield update” came on a day where there was heavy fighting in the north where Ukrainian forces were able to liberate the town of Balakliya and push Russian forces farther back from Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

In his nightly video address, President Volodymyr Zelensky said since Ukraine went on the offensive on Sept. 1, “dozens of settlements” have been retaken and “more than a thousand square kilometers (385 square miles) of our territory have been liberated.”

“There is fighting both offense and defense all the way from Kharkiv all the way down to Kherson,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, describing the 800-mile-long front lines. “The Ukrainians have inflicted significant damage to the Russians' supply lines and — and ammunition supply points and command-and-control nodes as they continue to shape the battlefield to be able to maneuver to retake some of their sovereign territory.”

“Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May,” according to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War. “Some [Russian] milbloggers noted that the Russian command failed to prepare for “obvious and predictable” Ukrainian counteroffensives. Others noted that Ukrainian forces have ‘completely outplayed’ the Russian military command in Balakliya.”

UKRAINIAN FORCES 'OUTSMARTED THE RUSSIANS' WITH US ARTILLERY

US STILL PROVIDING BULK OF AID: Despite the presence of nearly 50 countries at yesterday's Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Force Base, Germany, contributions and offers of military equipment and financial aid by allies to Ukraine’s war effort are dwarfed by America’s massive weapons transfers.

In addition to the $675 million worth of weapons drawn from Pentagon stocks announced by Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kyiv bearing a pledge of another $2.2 billion in long-term investments under the State Department's Foreign Military Financing program.

“Roughly half of these funds will actually go to Ukraine's defenses while the other half goes to these allies and partners, to help backfill some of their capabilities,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby in a conference call with reporters.

“The Europeans are talking a big talk but delivering actually just a fraction of what they're promising. And what they're promising is just a fraction of what the United States is actually delivering,” said former Green Beret Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) on Fox Business News yesterday.

“The Europeans have got to step up here,” said Waltz, who met with Zelensky in July. “This is settling into a long slog. I do think it's important to send a message to Putin that he can't just grind this out, he can't just outwait us.”

Waltz told Fox’s Neil Cavuto that Europe will come under increasing pressure as winter sets in and Putin seeks to weaponize his control of energy supplies. “We have all the gas being cut off finally to Europe, to Germany, specifically by Russia. They're saying they don't know when they're going to turn it back on, and I think this really could send Europe and Germany into an economic crisis.”

“And we still have the outstanding issue of Europe's largest nuclear plant stuck in the middle of this fighting. My understanding is that the Ukrainians have tried to take it back twice,” Waltz said. “But if Putin is successfully able to cut off 30% of Ukraine's electricity, and, God forbid, we have a nightmare scenario of some type of leak, that could take this crisis from bad to worse.”

BLINKEN MAKES UNANNOUNCED VISIT TO UKRAINE, PLEDGES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Brussels today meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who attended yesterday’s contact group meeting in Germany.

“I’ll have an opportunity in Brussels to debrief NATO Allies, other partners, on what I learned in Ukraine and to work with them on a number of issues that are of concern to everyone, starting with the situation in and around Zaporizhzhia, where Russia has seized as part of its aggression a nuclear facility, and that’s of real concern to many of us; making sure that food which needs to get out of Ukraine after it’s been blocked by Russia,” Blinken told reporters before departing Poland for Belgium.

A joint press conference with Stoltenberg is scheduled for this morning, which will be streamed on the NATO website.

‘VERY EARLY DAYS’: Blinkin told reporters traveling with him that he received a “comprehensive update” on Ukraine’s counteroffensive campaign during the two hours he spent with President Zelensky and his team in Kyiv.

“It’s very early, but we’re seeing clear and real progress on the ground, particularly in the area around Kherson but also some interesting developments in the Donbas in the east. But again, early days,” Blinken said. “We’ve been very attentive to what we’re hearing, what we’re getting from the Ukrainians, what we’re reading in your reporting and other reporting, and we are determined to make sure that they have what they need.”

‘RUSSIANS … THROWING EVERYTHING THEY HAVE’: Blinken made reference to yesterday’s Washington Post report, in which wounded Ukrainian soldiers from the southern front gave harrowing accounts of facing better armed, dug-in Russian defenses, as they tried to advance on Kherson.

“I read some of your very, very good and compelling reporting,” Blinken told Washington Post reporter John Hudson. “The Russians are in many instances throwing everything they have at Ukrainian soldiers and Ukrainian civilians, and they’re doing it indiscriminately. And if you’re on the receiving end of that, it’s got to be incredibly horrifying.”

But Blinken said U.S. and European-supplied HIMARS GPS-guided artillery systems are helping to neutralize Russia's numerical advantage. “At the same time, you have very precise weapons that we and others have provided to the Ukrainians that allows them with one shot to do what the Russians may try to do with 15 or 20 shots, so that’s also part of what’s going on.”

DOD WATCHDOG TO REVIEW VETTING OF AFGHANS: The Pentagon's Office of Inspector General has announced they will review whistleblower allegations that the Biden administration failed to properly vet hundreds of Afghans during last year’s chaotic evacuation of Kabul.

The review comes in response to a letter from Republican Sens. Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Ron Johnson (R-WI), which said hundreds of Afghan evacuees who should not have been allowed to enter the U.S. slipped through because the Biden administration “cut corners.”

And the allegations:

• At least 324 individuals from Afghanistan who were allowed in appeared on DoD’s watchlist, which includes known suspected terrorists. 
• The White House and DoD officials directed agency personnel to cut corners and not conduct full fingerprint tests of Afghan evacuees. 
• Department of Homeland Security staff were authorized to delete old biometric data, whenever they personally believed it was out of date, which compromised the integrity of existing databases and undermined national security.

FEDERAL OFFICIALS SENT TALIBAN ALLY TO US AMID EVACUATION CHAOS, AUDIT SHOWS

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian forces 'outsmarted the Russians' with US artillery

Washington Examiner: Blinken makes unannounced visit to Ukraine, pledges additional support

Washington Examiner: US sanctions Iranian drone-makers

Washington Examiner: What’s the deal with the Iran nuclear deal?

Washington Examiner: DOJ says it will appeal Trump Mar-a-Lago special master order

Washington Examiner: Federal officials sent Taliban ally to US amid evacuation chaos, audit shows

New York Times: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Looks Like a ‘Failure,’ C.I.A. Director Says

New York Times: Conditions at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Get ‘Worse and Worse and Worse’

Reuters: Analysis - Putin's Energy Gamble May Prove A Double-Edged Sword For Russia

LA Times: Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Is Jolting Germany Into Rebuilding Its Military

Washington Post: North Korea Codifies Right To Launch Preemptive Nuclear Strikes

National Interest: Why the Navy’s Unmanned Surface Vessels Are Making a Splash

Defense News: Pentagon Leaders Discuss China’s Space Ambitions at Classified Meeting

Stars and Stripes: US Military’s Footprint Is Expanding In Northern Australia To Meet A Rising China

Defense One: Sharing Secrets Has Been ‘Effective’ Against Russia, But the Tactic Has Limits, CIA Chief Says

Breaking Defense: Boeing Successfully Demos MQ-25 Control Through P-8, Autonomy Software

Federal News Network: Marine Corps Says It’s Willing To Go To Negotiating Table To Keep Talented Service Members

Air & Space Forces Magazine: AFSOC Commander Is on a ‘Jihad’ Against Centralization. Here’s Why

Air & Space Forces Magazine: AFRL Test Proves New Method of Air Base Defense With NASAMS Canister

19fortyfive.com: DDG(X): The Navy's Plan for a Destroyer That Fires Lasers and Hypersonic Missiles

19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Could Be the Spark for a War Between Russia and America

19fortyfive.com: Putin's 200 Days of Ukraine Hell: Russia Is Fighting an 'Unsustainable' War

19fortyfive.com: Nuclear Deal Delay: Is Iran Using The Extra Time to Build a Nuclear Bomb?

The Cipher Brief: The Impact of JCPOA

The Cipher Brief: Is War Between the US and China Avoidable?

Calendar

FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 9

TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin returns to Washington after meeting with Czech Republic defense minister in Prague.

9 a.m. 801 Mt. Vernon Pl. N.W. — Billington Cybersecurity Summit with Lt. Gen.  Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency; and others. Full agenda at https://billingtoncybersummit.com/agenda/2022-agenda

9:50 a.m. — The Pentagon holds its annual 9/11 staff memorial observance in remembrance of the "sacrifice and service of those who were involved in the events of 9/11," with Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Christopher Grady; and Michael Donley, director of Defense Office of Administration and Management

10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Chinese Economic Decoupling Strategy against the United States," with Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute; Miles Yu, senior fellow and director at the Hudson Institute's China Center; and John Lee, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/2143-chinese-economic-decoupling

2:30 p.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Capping the price of Russian oil: Will it happen? Will it succeed," with Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo; and David Wessel, director of the Brooking Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy https://www.brookings.edu/events/capping-the-price-of-russian-oil

4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion on "The role of veterans in strengthening our democracy," with retired Navy Adm. Steve Abbot, former deputy homeland security adviser to the president; retired Adm. Thad Allen, former commandant of the Coast Guard; retired Air Force Gen. Craig McKinley, former chief of the National Guard Bureau; Ellen Gustafson, co-founder of We the Veterans; and Elaine Kamarck, director of the Brookings Institution's Center for Effective Public Management https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-role-of-veterans

SUNDAY | SEPTEMBER  11

9 a.m. — Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley host President Joe Biden at an observance ceremony at the National 9/11 Pentagon Memorial in honor of the 184 people killed in the 2001 terrorist attack on the Pentagon. https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events

MONDAY | SEPTEMBER 12

9 a.m. — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies releases policy paper: “Decades of Air Force Underfunding Threaten America’s Ability to Win,” with authors retired Lt. Gen. David  Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute, and Mark Gunzinger, director of future concepts and capability assessments at the Mitchell Institute; and retired Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, former Air Force deputy chief of staff for operations https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/policy-paper-release

TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 13

12:30 p.m. — New America and Arizona State University annual Future Security Forum, with Jen Easterly, director, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; Joshua Geltzer, deputy assistant to the president and deputy homeland security adviser, National Security Council; Maj. Gen. Steven Edwards, incoming commander, Special Operations Command Europe; CMC Pete Musselman, senior enlisted leader, Special Operations Command Europe; and retired Maj. Gen. Michael Repass, NATO strategic adviser for special operations, Ukraine, former deputy commander of Special Operations Command Europe and former commanding general, U.S. Army Special Forces Command https://events.newamerica.org/futuresecurityforum2022

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