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There is only one week remaining in this primary season, with 94 percent of elections completed as of Wednesday. While the official outcomes from this election cycle remain up in the air, the numbers so far have already made one thing abundantly clear — the Primary Problem is worse than ever this primary season. In fact, it’s on track to produce the least representative — and least accountable — Congress in our lifetime. Massachusetts’ primary on Tuesday didn’t help.

As we wait for voters in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island to conclude the primary calendar next Tuesday, here are three things to consider this week: 

The Massachusetts primary was void of any competition

The Primary Problem was on full display in Massachusetts — to say it was “bad” would be a gross understatement. Of the commonwealth’s nine congressional districts, not a SINGLE ONE had competition in the incumbent’s primary (meaning the sitting legislator ran against…literally no one). The Primary Problem is often a case of just one of the two party primaries determining the de facto winner before November's election even arrives. But in Massachusetts’s case, nine Democratic incumbents faced zero opponents in their primary, and each incumbent is in a safe seat. The result? Not one Massachusetts voter had any meaningful say on Tuesday in determining their congressional representation. This is bad for all voters, and particularly problematic for the 9% of the state that is registered as Republican, and the 60% of the state’s voters who went into the election unenrolled with either party. 

FairVote celebrates 25 years of accurate election prediction

For 25 years, FairVote has been accurately predicting the outcome of congressional elections using their Monopoly Politics methodology. To learn more about why these outcomes are so predictable, check out their report about this year’s elections.

And, as a bonus, if you’re interested in hearing Rob Richie, CEO of FairVote, speak to how ranked choice voting makes election outcomes less predictable, checkout one of his recent interviews here.

Alaska is having a ripple effect

We’ve looked back on Alaska’s recent primary and underscored how this innovative new election system — top-four nonpartisan primaries and ranked choice voting general elections — has given power back to the voters. Now, it is time to look ahead to what comes next in the wake of this historic election. Already, the outcome of the Alaska election is spurring reformers in other states to seriously consider the possibility of implementing these reforms too. An example of the Alaska ripple effect can be seen in Colorado and Wyoming. And, of course, an Alaska-type model will be on the ballot in Nevada this November when voters will decide whether to advance Top-Five, instead of Top-Four primaries with ranked choice voting just like Alaska — to a deciding ballot measure in 2024. 

As Unite America executive director Nick Troiano said to NBC News: “I’m more hopeful now than I’ve ever been that these solutions are positioned for widespread adoption because I think the vast majority of Americans have simply had enough with a system that no longer serves them.”

Alana
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Alana Persson
Unite America

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