BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

IAEA: ‘A VERY GRAVE DANGER’: After finally gaining access to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report Tuesday warning that “any further escalation affecting the six-reactor plant could lead to a severe nuclear accident with potentially grave radiological consequences for human health and the environment in Ukraine and elsewhere.”

“The situation is very worrying, continues to be very worrying,” said IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi in an interview on CNN International. “The shelling continues. So, indeed, we are still facing a very grave danger.”

Grossi said after visiting the plant that he could corroborate reports of damage from shelling but could not say which side was responsible. “I cannot make that determination. We don't have the means to do that,” he told CNN, saying such a determination is “not only beyond the mandate of the IAEA, but would require enormous capabilities.”

“But the mere fact that there is a continuity of attacks and shelling, deliberate or not, wittingly or unwittingly, people are hitting a nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe … So, I must say that the danger continues,” he said.

GROSSI: ‘A SHIELD, A BUBBLE’ NEEDED TO PROTECT PLANT: Grossi said there is an urgent need for a safety zone around the plant, which he argues would protect both sides, and help avert a Chernobyl-like disaster.

“The big difference now, if you compare with what happened in Chernobyl and in other places, is this: We have an opportunity now, for the first time … not to pick up the pieces, but to prevent,” Grossi said.

What the IAEA is proposing is a “safety and security protection zone,” which Grossi says would be “more modest” than a full demilitarization of the area, but would commit both sides to avoid aiming any munitions in the direction of the plant.

“It may be a step toward a full demilitarization or more ambitious things like that, but, at the moment, what is urgently needed now, today, is that we agree on establishing a protection, if you want, a shield, a bubble around the perimeter of the facility,” he told CNN. “I cannot conceive that any country would include in its menu, if I can use this word, of military options the shelling of a nuclear power plant.”

“This is a measure that, one way or the other, must be put in place. We can do it. We have the means to do it. And I would like to hear what would be the arguments to say that we should not protect the nuclear power plant,” he said. “Nuclear safety is indispensable. Nuclear security is indispensable. We are playing with fire.”

PLANT DAMAGE CONFIRMED: The IAEA report includes pictures of damage at the plant ostensibly caused by shelling, including a hole in a roof and windows blown out. It also confirms that Russian forces have military personnel, vehicles, and equipment staged at various locations inside the plant, including several military trucks on the ground floor of the Unit 1 and Unit 2 turbine halls.

“The IAEA report thus demonstrates that Russian officials have placed military equipment in locations inhibiting access to essential facilities, installed their own personnel to oversee the plant’s operations in ways that the IAEA judges could undermine effective response to a nuclear emergency, restricted the Ukrainian operating staff’s access to key parts of the facility, and shifted the emergency center to a location lacking essential components vital to an effective response to a serious nuclear emergency,” says an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.

“The Russians have thus created conditions at the ZNPP that increase the risk that an emergency could occur and significantly increase the danger that the operating staff will be unable to respond efficiently and effectively in such an event.”

RUSSIA MAKES CLEAR IT IS STARVING EUROPE OF GAS IN BID TO GET SANCTIONS LIFTED

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TOMORROW: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is headed to Germany, where tomorrow the U.S. will host the fourth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base.

The gathering of defense and senior military officials from more than 50 countries will discuss Ukraine’s ongoing military needs as it conducts a counteroffensive against Russian troops on several fronts. Also in attendance will be U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

PUTIN: RUSSIA HAS 'LOST NOTHING' IN UKRAINE

ZELENSKY CONFERS WITH NEW BRITISH PM: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was one of the first world leaders to get a call from new British Prime Minister Liz Truss.

“It is a great honor for Ukraine,” said Zelensky in his nightly video address. “Mrs. Prime Minister takes office at a time of great difficulties: Russian energy blackmail, constant efforts of the terrorist state to destabilize the political situation in Europe and the free world, constant Russian disinformation — however, by maintaining our unity and working in full coordination, we can overcome this, too.”

“I’ve heard very important words about our cooperation, future security guarantees for Ukraine, and about the reconstruction of our state,” said Zelensky, who invited Truss to visit Kyiv. “It is very important that Great Britain retains a leadership role in consolidating the free world and protecting freedom.”

UKRAINE SAYS RUSSIAN MILITARY DEATH TOLL SURPASSES 50,000

RUSSIA SHORT OF AMMO: The Pentagon went public yesterday with its intelligence that indicates Russia is running so low on basic ammunition that it’s reaching out to North Korea to replenish its diminishing stocks of missiles and rockets.

“We do have indications that Russia has approached North Korea to request ammunition. I'm not able to provide any more detail than that at this point in time, but it does demonstrate and is indicative of the situation that Russia finds itself in terms of its logistics and sustainment capabilities as it relates to Ukraine,” said press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, at a Pentagon briefing.

“We assess that things are not going well on that front for Russia, so the fact that they're reaching out to North Korea is a sign that they're having some challenges on the sustainment front,” Ryder said.

The talks between Moscow and Pyongyang, and for now they are just that, are “just another indication of how desperate Putin’s becoming,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters at the White House. “He was buying drones from Iran, now he’s going to buy artillery rounds from North Korea. It’s an indication of how much his defense industrial establishment is suffering as a result of this war and the degree of desperation that he’s reaching out to countries like Iran and North Korea for assistance.”

US: RUSSIA TO PURCHASE ROCKETS AND ARTILLERY SHELLS IN ARMS DEAL WITH NORTH KOREA

A WARNING ABOUT A BEDROCK PRINCIPLE: In an open letter, every living former defense secretary since 1994, and every former joint chiefs chairman in the past two decades, are warning about the erosion of a bedrock principle of the U.S. military: civilian control and an apolitical armed force.

“Military professionals confront an extremely adverse environment characterized by the divisiveness of affective polarization that culminated in the first election in over a century when the peaceful transfer of political power was disrupted and in doubt,” the former civilian and military leaders write. “The democratic project is not threatened by the existence of a powerful standing military so long as civilian and military leaders — and the rank-and-file they lead — embrace and implement effective civilian control,” citing civilian control of the military as a “bedrock foundation of American democracy.”

The military, they say, doesn’t have any authority to overrule civilian leaders, who have a “right to be wrong.”

“Military officials are required to carry out legal orders the wisdom of which they doubt,” but military leaders have an obligation to “seek clarification, raise questions about second- and third-order effects, and propose alternatives that may not have been considered.”

The letter warns against using the military for law enforcement and reminds active-duty members they do not have the same rights of free political expression as civilians.

“Members of the military accept limits on the public expression of their private views — limits that would be unconstitutional if imposed on other citizens,” they write. “Military and civilian leaders must be diligent about keeping the military separate from partisan political activity."

FORMER PENTAGON LEADERS WORRIED ABOUT FRAYING CIVILIAN-MILITARY RELATIONS

ANOTHER ROUTINE MINUTEMAN TEST: As advertised, the U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command launched an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Space Force Base this morning.

“This test launch is part of routine and periodic activities intended to demonstrate that the United States' nuclear deterrent is safe, secure, reliable and effective to deter twenty-first century threats and reassure our allies,” the Air Force said in a statement. “Such tests have occurred more than 300 times before, and this test is not the result of current world events.”

US MILITARY TO LAUNCH ICBM TEST

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden administration says ‘still quite a bit of work’ on Iran nuclear agreement

Washington Examiner: Putin: Russia has 'lost nothing' in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: US: Russia to purchase rockets and artillery shells in arms deal with North Korea

Washington Examiner: Russia makes clear it is starving Europe of gas in bid to get sanctions lifted

Washington Examiner: White House: Calling Russia a terrorism sponsor may have 'unintended consequences'

Washington Examiner: Ukraine says Russian military death toll surpasses 50,000

Washington Examiner: Former Pentagon leaders worried about fraying civilian-military relations

Washington Examiner: Taiwan sees Biden's political fears weakening US strategy to counter China

Washington Examiner: US military to launch ICBM test

Washington Examiner: Documents detailing foreign country's nuclear capabilities found at Mar-a-Lago: Report

Washington Examiner: Top four takeaways: What we know after a judge approved Trump's request for a special master in DOJ inquiry

Washington Examiner: Opinion: On China, PM Liz Truss will move Britain closer to the US

Defense News: Congress wants more details on latest Ukraine aid request

Air Force Magazine: Mutual Denial of Air Superiority Could Benefit US in Future Conflict, Top USAF Planner Says

Military.com: Air Force Pay Cuts Looming Next Month for Airmen in the Service’s Toughest Jobs

Military Times: National Defense Service Medal won’t be awarded after December

FedScoop: Air Force Sees Opportunities to Scale Production of Drones, Software for Wars of Attrition

Defense News: Ukraine arms maker finds export interest in ‘combat-proven’ missiles

Task & Purpose: Russia is so desperate for fighters it’s trying to recruit at homeless shelters

Space News: DOD Updates Space Policy, Formally Adopts ‘Tenets of Responsible Behavior’

The Drive: Boeing Australia’s MQ-28 Ghost Bat Loyal Wingman Drone Is in the US

Task & Purpose: Inside Norway’s Complex Plan to Save a Stranded US Air Force Osprey

Washington Post: Biden to commemorate anniversary of 9/11 attacks at Pentagon

19fortyfive.com: The Navy Is Desperate for More Nuclear Attack Submarines Due to Russia and China Threats

19fortyfive.com: Russia Has Lost 2,000 Tanks in Ukraine: Let Us Show You How They Die

19fortyfive.com: Russia Is 'Suffering Devastating Losses' in Ukraine Trying to Hold Kherson

19fortyfive.com: Putin Should Worry: Russia Is Preparing to Build 'New' Soviet Weapons

The Cipher Brief: Chernobyl May Have Been Gorbachev’s Greatest Lesson

The Cipher Brief: World War II and The Rise of American Intelligence

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 7

TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin departs for three day trip to Germany and the Czech Republic

8:30 a.m. 1501 Langston Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — Air and Space Forces Association discussion: “Air Force special operations," with Air Force Lt. Gen. James Slife, commander of Air Force Special Operations Command https://www.afa.org/events/air-space-warfighters-action

8:45 a.m. 801 Mt. Vernon Pl. N.W. — Billington Cybersecurity Summit with Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh, deputy commander, U.S. Cyber Command; Chris Inglis, national cyber director; and others. Full agenda at https://billingtoncybersummit.com/agenda/2022-agenda

9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: "Taiwan, Cross-Strait Relations, and an Evolving World,” with Taiwanese Mainland Affairs Council Minister Tai-San Chiu https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-taiwan

10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research book discussion on Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, with co-author Hal Brands, senior fellow at AEI; co-author Michael Beckley, nonresident senior fellow at AEI; and Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies at AEI https://www.aei.org/

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace, with author Chris Blattman, professor of global conflict studies at the University of Chicago's School of Public Policy https://www.csis.org/events/why-we-fight-conversation-dr-chris-blattman

11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual event: “State of Defense: Army,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville; and Lt. Gen. Scott McKean, deputy commanding general of the Army Futures Command https://d1stateofdefense.com

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” virtual discussion: “Pivot to Readiness with Army Medicine," with Lt. Gen. R. Scott Dingle, Army surgeon general and commanding general of the U.S. Army Medical Command; and Army Medical Command Sgt. Maj. Diamond Hough https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report-pivot-readiness-army-medicine

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on a new report, "Software-Defined Warfare: Defining the DOD's Transition to the Digital Age," with CIA Chief Technology Officer Nand Mulchandani; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. John Shanahan, former director of the Defense Department's Joint Artificial Intelligence Center https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch-software-defined-warfare

2:15 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “A Fresh Look at Russian Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine," with Andrei Kolesnikov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center in Moscow http://carnegieendowment.org/ Livestream at https://youtu.be/dqeMnSzslKI

3:30 a.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America online discussion: “Iraq on the Brink," with Kenneth Pollack, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Levant Affairs Joel Rayburn, fellow at New America Foundation; and John Hannah, senior fellow at JINSA's Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy, and former national security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 8

TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley host 5th Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, Ramstein Air Base, Germany

8:30 a.m. 801 Mt. Vernon Pl. N.W. — Billington Cybersecurity Summit with Sen. Angus King (I-MA) co-chair, Cyberspace Solarium Commission; William Burns, director, Central Intelligence Agency; and others. Full agenda at https://billingtoncybersummit.com/agenda/2022-agenda

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Recent Developments on the Korean Peninsula," with Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center's Asia Program; Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies at CSIS; Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at CSIS; and Mark Lippert, nonresident senior adviser at CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable

9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “NSA's current research priorities and challenges, the outlook for high performance computing, artificial intelligence/machine learning, quantum encryption, and partnerships with industry and academia," with Gil Herrera, NSA research director; and John Doyon, INSA executive vice president https://www.insaonline.org/event/coffee-and-conversation-with-gil-herrera

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual book discussion on No Shortcuts: Why States Struggle to Develop a Military Cyber-Force, with author Max Smeets, senior researcher at ETH Zurich's Center for Security Studies https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/08/why-states-struggle

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "From Ukraine to Taiwan: Charting a new U.S.-Japan Alliance," with former White House national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Japan chair at Hudson; and Kunihiko Miyake, research director of the Canon Institute for Global Studies https://www.hudson.org/events/2144-virtual-event-from-ukraine-to-taiwan

4 p.m. 1521 16th Street N.W. — Institute of World Politics discussion” “A Year On: Current Events in Taliban Afghanistan," with Mohibullah Noori, founder of the Heart of Asia Nations Integration Movement and former policy director for Afghanistan's National Security Council https://www.iwp.edu/events/a-year-on-current-events-in-taliban-afghanistan

FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 9

TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin returns to Washington after meeting with Czech Republic defense minister in Prague.

9 a.m. — 8:30 a.m. 801 Mt. Vernon Pl. N.W. — Billington Cybersecurity Summit with Lt. Gen.  Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency; and others. Full agenda at https://billingtoncybersummit.com/agenda/2022-agenda

9:50 a.m. — The Pentagon holds its annual 9/11 staff memorial observance in remembrance of the "sacrifice and service of those who were involved in the events of 9/11," with Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Christopher Grady; and Michael Donley, director of Defense Office of Administration and Management

10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Chinese Economic Decoupling Strategy against the United States," with Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute; Miles Yu, senior fellow and director at the Hudson Institute's China Center; and John Lee, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/2143-chinese-economic-decoupling

2:30 p.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Capping the price of Russian oil: Will it happen? Will it succeed," with Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo; and David Wessel, director of the Brooking Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy https://www.brookings.edu/events/capping-the-price-of-russian-oil

4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion on "The role of veterans in strengthening our democracy," with retired Navy Adm. Steve Abbot, former deputy homeland security adviser to the president; retired Adm. Thad Allen, former commandant of the Coast Guard; retired Air Force Gen. Craig McKinley, former chief of the National Guard Bureau; Ellen Gustafson, co-founder of We the Veterans; and Elaine Kamarck, director of the Brookings Institution's Center for Effective Public Management https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-role-of-veterans

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