BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

‘I MAY HAVE TO DO IT AGAIN’: Donald Trump insists if he were president instead of Joe Biden, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine, China would not be threatening Taiwan, the U.S. would have held on to its key base in Afghanistan, and Iran would have quickly acquiesced to a new nuclear deal.

Trump spelled out his alternate vision of the past two years at a Pennsylvania rally Saturday night, promoting the campaigns of Mehmet Oz for U.S. senate and Doug Mastriano for governor, and Trump again hinted he will run again in 2024. “So I may just have to do it again. Good numbers in the polls. So I may just have to do it again,” he said. “Stay tuned. I may have to do it again.”

TRUMP BLASTS BIDEN MAGA SPEECH, ACCUSES HIM OF BEING 'INSANE' AND HAVING 'DEMENTIA'

‘I GUARANTEE YOU … PUTIN WAS NOT GOING INTO UKRAINE’: Trump told the cheering crowd that his tough sanctions and personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin would have prevented the invasion of Ukraine.

“We just sent another $13 billion to Ukraine, that gets us close to $80 billion. No. Well, it angers me more for a different reason. It would’ve never happened before,” Trump said. “Putin knew, he wouldn’t have done it. I said, ‘Vladimir, you’re not going to do that, Vladimir.’ He knew that. He knew it, he knew it.”

“I’m the one that did the big sanctions. And I guarantee you one thing, Putin was not going into Ukraine. I guarantee you that. I guarantee you. Nobody was tougher than me.”

RUSSIA HALTS NATURAL GAS FLOW TO EUROPE ‘INDEFINITELY,' RAISING PRESSURE ON WEST

‘WE SHOULD HAVE KEPT BAGRAM’: Despite drawing down the number of U.S troops in Afghanistan below the number U.S. commanders said was the minimum necessary to maintain operations in Afghanistan, Trump says he would not have abandoned the sprawling Bagram air base the U.S. controlled 40 miles north of Kabul.

“We could have gotten out. I wanted to get out more than anybody. I’m the one that got it down to 2,000 [U.S. troops]. But also we should have kept Bagram because of China,” he said. “Bagram Air Base cost billions and billions of dollars years ago to build. It’s one hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons.”

Trump did not explain how the U.S. would have held onto the base without dispatching fresh troops to defend it, except to claim that in his phone conversation with Abdul Ghani Baradar shortly after the Doha withdrawal agreement was signed in 2020, he threatened the Taliban leader with massive retaliation if any harm came to Americans.

“I spoke to Abdul. I said, ‘Abdul, don’t do it, Abdul. Don’t do it. Don’t do it,’” Trump said. In previous tellings of this story, Trump said he mentioned Baradar’s hometown as a threat. In this version, he claims he sent a picture of his house as a warning. “‘Why, sir? Why do you send me a picture of my house?’” Trump recounted. “I said, ‘Abdul, that’s a different story. Don’t do it.’ And we were fine.”

BIDEN APPROVES AWARDING COMMENDATION TO TROOPS INVOLVED IN AFGHAN WITHDRAWAL

‘SHIPS CIRCLING TAIWAN … THAT WOULDN’T HAVE HAPPENED EITHER’: Trump, as he has in the past, expressed his admiration of authoritarian leaders, saying in his conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping he called him “King.”

“He said, ‘But I am not king.’ I said, ‘You are to me. You’re president for life. It’s the same thing,’” Trump recounted, noting that Xi “rules with an iron fist,” and calling him “smart.”

“I got to know a lot of the foreign leaders, and let me tell you, unlike our leader, they’re at the top of their game,” Trump said. “So, I’m with President Xi, and I got along with him very well.”

As with Putin, Trump argued his personal relationship with Xi would have prevented the current tensions over Taiwan. “Do you notice a lot of ships are circling Taiwan? That wouldn’t have happened either, by the way,” he said.

Trump expressed particular admiration for China’s judicial system which quickly convicts and executes alleged drug dealers, and he called for similar harsh penalties in the U.S. “I’m calling on Republicans and Democrats immediately to institute … the death penalty for drug dealers. You will no longer have a problem.”

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION APPROVES $1.1 BILLION ARMS SALE TO TAIWAN

‘IRAN WAS DYING TO MAKE A DEAL’: In Trump’s version of events, the only reason he was not able to extract a better deal from Iran after pulling out of the 2015 nuclear agreement is that Tehran was waiting to see if it could get a better deal from a Biden administration.

“Iran was dying to make a deal with me. I would’ve had a deal done within one week after the election,” Trump said. “Now we’re going to pay them hundreds of billions of dollars, and they’re going to have nuclear weapons within a short period of time.”

“We are a nation that is allowing Iran to build a massive nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “Just two years ago, we had Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea in check. They weren’t going to do a thing against us, and everybody knows it.”

FIFTY LAWMAKERS, MOSTLY DEMOCRATS, ‘DEEPLY CONCERNED’ ABOUT IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and incoming Prime Minister Liz Truss are traveling separately to Scotland to visit Queen Elizabeth II at her Balmoral estate to begin the transfer of power.

Truss was named leader of the ruling Conservative Party yesterday. In his parting words, Johnson addressed reporters outside his 10 Downing Street office for the last time as prime minister.

“I am like one of those booster rockets that has fulfilled its function,” he said. “I will now be gently re-entering the atmosphere and splashing down invisibly in some remote and obscure corner of the Pacific.’’

BIDEN REQUESTS ANOTHER $11.7 BILLION FOR UKRAINE: In a tacit acknowledgment that Congress is unlikely to pass a federal budget before the Sept. 30 deadline, the White House Office of Management and Budget is requesting that an additional $13.7 billion in Ukraine-related funds be included in any stop-gap measure to keep the government funded past the end of the month.

“President Biden has been clear that the United States is committed to continuing to support the people of Ukraine as they defend their sovereignty,” the White House said in a statement. “To deliver on that commitment and meet immediate needs, we are requesting $11.7 billion for security and economic assistance for the first quarter of FY 2023, as well as $2 billion to help address the impacts Putin’s war has had on domestic energy supply and reduce energy costs in the future.”

The White House couched the request as “technical assistance to Congress” as part of “prudent planning” for the failure of Congress to meet the Sept. 30 deadline.

“With one month until the end of the fiscal year, it’s clear that Congress will first need to pass a short-term continuing resolution (CR) to keep the federal government running and provide the time needed to reach an agreement on full-year funding bills,” the statement says. “As it did for the current fiscal year, we’re confident that Congress can reach a funding agreement that will deliver for the American people.”

UKRAINE COUNTEROFFENSIVE ‘DEGRADING RUSSIAN LOGISTICS’: While not a lot of territory has changed hands over the past week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed over the weekend that his forces liberated two villages in the south near Kherson, and one in the Donetsk region in the East.

More significantly, says the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is “tangibly degrading Russian logistics and administrative capabilities in occupied southern Ukraine.”

This has, at least temporarily, paused Russian annexation referendum plans in Kherson Oblast due to “security” concerns, according to the ISW.

Meanwhile, the British Defense Ministry reports that Russian troops continue to suffer from morale and discipline issues. “In addition to combat fatigue and high casualties, one of the main grievances from deployed Russian soldiers probably continues to be problems with their pay,” the ministry said in a Twitter update. “The Russian military has consistently failed to provide basic entitlements to troops deployed in Ukraine, including appropriate uniform, arms and rations, as well as pay. This has almost certainly contributed to the continued fragile morale of much of the force.”

UKRAINE NUKE PLANT, OFF THE GRID BUT ONLINE: The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency is due to report its findings to the U.N. after inspecting the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has once again been disconnected from Ukraine’s national power grid.

In a statement, Rafael Mariano Grossi, the watchdog agency’s director general, said the plant was intentionally disconnected from the grid as a precaution, but there was no immediate safety issue.

“Ukraine informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that a back-up power line between the country’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and a nearby thermal power station was deliberately disconnected today in order to extinguish a fire, but the line itself was not damaged,” the statement said. “The ZNPP continues to receive the electricity it needs for safety from its sole operating reactor.”

“One of the ZNPP’s six reactors continues to produce the electricity the plant requires for cooling and other nuclear safety functions. The reactor will be connected to the grid when the 330 kV line is switched on again.”

INDUSTRY WATCH: The State Department has approved a package of arms for Taiwan, including missiles and radars valued at $1.1 billion, but unlike military aid to Ukraine, the Taipei government is buying the armaments from U.S. defense contractors.

Included are 60 AGM-84L-1 Harpoon Block II missiles made by Boeing and up to 100 AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder Tactical Missiles made by Raytheon.

“The United States’ swift provision of Taiwan defensive weaponry and sustainment via Foreign Military Sale and Direct Commercial Sale is essential for Taiwan’s security and we will continue to work with industry to support that goal,” said a State Department official. “These proposed sales are routine cases to support Taiwan’s continuing efforts to modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability.”

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION APPROVES $1.1 BILLION ARMS SALE TO TAIWAN

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Russia halts natural gas flow to Europe ‘indefinitely,' raising pressure on West

Washington Examiner: Liz Truss to replace Boris Johnson as British prime minister

Washington Examiner: Biden administration approves $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan

Washington Examiner: China seeks 'naval outpost' in Nicaragua to threaten US, Taiwan warns

Washington Examiner: Taiwan sees danger that China will blockade food imports to starve island

Washington Examiner: Xi could use force against Taiwan amid 'challenges from within,' Taipei official says

Washington Examiner: Biden administration says progress on Iran nuclear deal is ‘moving backwards’

Washington Examiner: Iran's latest response to nuclear deal proposal 'not constructive': State Department

Washington Examiner: Fifty lawmakers, mostly Democrats, ‘deeply concerned’ about Iran nuclear deal

Washington Examiner: Top Russian diplomat among at least six killed in suicide bomber blast in Kabul

Washington Examiner: At least eight Russian businessmen have died under suspicious circumstances this year

Washington Examiner: 'A rare leader': Biden reacts to the death of Mikhail Gorbachev

Washington Examiner: Putin declines to honor Gorbachev with state funeral

Washington Examiner: Trump blasts Biden MAGA speech, accuses him of being 'insane' and having 'dementia'

Washington Examiner: Biden's team defends uniformed Marines in background of speech

Washington Examiner: Women in military report highest sexual assault totals since tracking began in 2006

Washington Examiner: Pentagon points to new policies as solution to growing sexual assault problem

Washington Examiner: Veterans Affairs to offer abortions in limited cases, even in states where banned

Washington Examiner: Biden approves awarding commendation to troops involved in Afghan withdrawal

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why there can be no neutrality on Ukraine

New York Times: Europe Says It Can Weather The Winter As Russia Postpones Resuming Gas Flow

AP: Iran Briefly Seizes 2 More US Sea Drones in Red Sea Amid Tensions

New York Times: China Threatens Reaction After U.S. Announces Arms Sales to Taiwan

Wall Street Journal: Pentagon Aims to Speed Arms Sales to Allies to Better Compete With China

Task & Purpose: The US military needs a lot more artillery shells, rockets, and missiles for the next war

AP: US: Russia to buy rockets, artillery shells from North Korea

Reuters: Putin Approves New Foreign Policy Doctrine Based On 'Russian World'

New York Times: John Sullivan, The U.S. Ambassador To Russia, Leaves Moscow To Retire

USNI News: Lisa Franchetti Takes Helm as Vice Chief of Naval Operations, Second Woman in Position

USNI News: White House to Nominate DOT&E Head Nickolas Guertin as Navy Acquisition Chief

Air Force Magazine: CV-22 Fleet Cleared to Start Flying Again After Safety Stand Down

Space News: Space Force Building Ground Station in Alaska Ahead of Launch of Arctic Satcom Mission

Military.com: Drug and Alcohol Test Results Might Be Waived for Air Force and Space Force Recruits

AP: Police - ‘Fat Leonard’ Escapes House Arrest In San Diego

19fortyfive.com: HIMARS Are Doing Serious Damage to Russia's Military in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Putin's Ukraine Nightmare Keeps Getting Worse: Could Kherson Fall?

19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Read H. P. Lovecraft to Understand War

Calendar

TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 6

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "Airpower After Ukraine: The Future of Air Warfare," with Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategy, Integration, and Requirements Lt. Gen. Clinton Hinote; retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, former NATO supreme allied commander Europe; retired Air Force Lt. Gen. VeraLinn Jamieson, former deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and cyber effects operations; and August Cole, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-future-of-air-warfare/

10 a.m. — East-West Center in Washington virtual discussion: "Democratic People's Republic of Korea-United Kingdom Relations: An Ambassador's Perspective on Diplomacy with Pyongyang," with former UK Ambassador to the DPRK Alastair Morgan; Keith Luse, executive director of the National Committee on North Korea; and Ross Tokola, executive director to the director at the East-West Center https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "Can a Ukrainian counteroffensive turn the tide in Russia's War?" with Former Ukraine Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center; Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center; and Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/can-a-ukrainian-counteroffensive-turn-the-tide

12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: "The Sugar High of Unipolarity: Why U.S. Military Interventions Increased after the Cold War," with Monica Duffy Toft, professor of International politics at Tufts University; Sidita Kushi, assistant professor of political science at Bridgewater State University; John Mearsheimer, service professor at the University of Chicago; and Trita Parsi QI executive vice president https://quincyinst.org/event/the-sugar-high-of-unipolarity

1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: "Accelerating Army Modernization Part II," with Army Maj. Gen. Jeth Rey, director of Army Futures' Network Cross Functional Team; Nicholas Saacks, Army deputy program executive officer for tactical command, Control and communications; Patrick Dedham, senior technical director and chief engineer at NETCOM; Mike Madsen, deputy director of the Defense Innovation Unit; Rick Pina, chief technology adviser for the public sector at WorldWide Technology; and Jan Niemiec, vice president of U.S. federal national security and defense at Cisco https://events.govexec.com/army-modernization-2022/

5 p.m. — Institute for Policy Studies virtual book discussion on Tyrants on Twitter: Protecting Democracies from Information Warfare, with author David Sloss https://ips-dc.org/events/tyrants-on-twitter/

WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 7

TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin departs for three day trip to Germany and the Czech Republic

8:30 a.m. 1501 Langston Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — Air and Space Forces Association discussion: “Air Force special operations," with Air Force Lt. Gen. James Slife, commander of Air Force Special Operations Command https://www.afa.org/events/air-space-warfighters-action

8:45 a.m. 801 Mt. Vernon Pl. N.W. — Billington Cybersecurity Summit with Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh, deputy commander, U.S. Cyber Command; Chris Inglis, national cyber director; and others. Full agenda at https://billingtoncybersummit.com/agenda/2022-agenda

9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: "Taiwan, Cross-Strait Relations, and an Evolving World,” with Taiwanese Mainland Affairs Council Minister Tai-San Chiu https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-taiwan

10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research book discussion on Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, with co-author Hal Brands, senior fellow at AEI; co-author Michael Beckley, nonresident senior fellow at AEI; and Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies at AEI https://www.aei.org/

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace, with author Chris Blattman, professor of global conflict studies at the University of Chicago's School of Public Policy https://www.csis.org/events/why-we-fight-conversation-dr-chris-blattman

11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual event: “State of Defense: Army,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville https://d1stateofdefense.com/

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” virtual discussion: “Pivot to Readiness with Army Medicine," with Lt. Gen. R. Scott Dingle, Army surgeon general and commanding general of the U.S. Army Medical Command; and Army Medical Command Sgt. Maj. Diamond Hough https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report-pivot-readiness-army-medicine

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on a new report, "Software-Defined Warfare: Defining the DOD's Transition to the Digital Age," with CIA Chief Technology Officer Nand Mulchandani; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. John Shanahan, former director of the Defense Department's Joint Artificial Intelligence Center https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch-software-defined-warfare

2:15 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peac discussion: “A Fresh Look at Russian Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine," with Andrei Kolesnikov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center in Moscow http://carnegieendowment.org/ Livestream at https://youtu.be/dqeMnSzslKI

THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 8

TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley host 5th Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, Ramstein Air Base, Germany

8:30 a.m. 801 Mt. Vernon Pl. N.W. — Billington Cybersecurity Summit with Sen. Angus King (I-MA) co-chair, Cyberspace Solarium Commission; William Burns, director, Central Intelligence Agency; and others. Full agenda at https://billingtoncybersummit.com/agenda/2022-agenda

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Recent Developments on the Korean Peninsula," with Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center's Asia Program; Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies at CSIS; Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at CSIS; and Mark Lippert, nonresident senior adviser at CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable

9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “NSA's current research priorities and challenges, the outlook for high performance computing, artificial intelligence/machine learning, quantum encryption, and partnerships with industry and academia," with Gil Herrera, NSA research director; and John Doyon, INSA executive vice president https://www.insaonline.org/event/coffee-and-conversation-with-gil-herrera

10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual book discussion on No Shortcuts: Why States Struggle to Develop a Military Cyber-Force, with author Max Smeets, senior researcher at ETH Zurich's Center for Security Studies https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/08/why-states-struggle

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "From Ukraine to Taiwan: Charting a new U.S.-Japan Alliance," with former White House national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Japan chair at Hudson; and Kunihiko Miyake, research director of the Canon Institute for Global Studies https://www.hudson.org/events/2144-virtual-event-from-ukraine-to-taiwan

4 p.m. 1521 16th Street N.W. — Institute of World Politics discussion “A Year On: Current Events in Taliban Afghanistan," with Mohibullah Noori, founder of the Heart of Asia Nations Integration Movement and former policy director for Afghanistan's National Security Council https://www.iwp.edu/events/a-year-on-current-events-in-taliban-afghanistan

FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 9

TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin returns to Washington after meeting with Czech Republic defense minister in Prague.

9 a.m. — 8:30 a.m. 801 Mt. Vernon Pl. N.W. — Billington Cybersecurity Summit with Lt. Gen.  Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency; and others. Full agenda at https://billingtoncybersummit.com/agenda/2022-agenda

9:50 a.m. — The Pentagon holds its annual 9/11 staff memorial observance in remembrance of the "sacrifice and service of those who were involved in the events of 9/11," with Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Christopher Grady; and Michael Donley, director of Defense Office of Administration and Management

10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Chinese Economic Decoupling Strategy against the United States," with Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute; Miles Yu, senior fellow and director at the Hudson Institute's China Center; and John Lee, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/2143-chinese-economic-decoupling

2:30 p.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Capping the price of Russian oil: Will it happen? Will it succeed," with Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo; and David Wessel, director of the Brooking Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy https://www.brookings.edu/events/capping-the-price-of-russian-oil

4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion on "The role of veterans in strengthening our democracy," with retired Navy Adm. Steve Abbot, former deputy homeland security adviser to the president; retired Adm. Thad Allen, former commandant of the Coast Guard; retired Air Force Gen. Craig McKinley, former chief of the National Guard Bureau; Ellen Gustafson, co-founder of We the Veterans; and Elaine Kamarck, director of the Brookings Institution's Center for Effective Public Management https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-role-of-veterans

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