[According to a new poll from Patinkin Research Strategies, 85% of
Alaskans said ranking is simple and 95% said they received
instructions on how to complete their ranked choice ballot –
indicative of the Alaska Division of Elections great voter education
efforts. ]
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RESULTS AND ANALYSIS FROM ALASKA’S FIRST RCV ELECTION  
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Deb Otis
August 31, 2022
FairVote [[link removed]]

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_ According to a new poll from Patinkin Research Strategies, 85% of
Alaskans said ranking is simple and 95% said they received
instructions on how to complete their ranked choice ballot –
indicative of the Alaska Division of Elections great voter education
efforts. _

Image of Juneau, Alaska, Matthew Oberstaedt

 

Alaska held its first ranked choice voting
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choice voting gave Alaskans better choices and more competition on
election day. This was a tight three-way race where Alaskan voters
were able to have more choices than a partisan battle between two
candidates. 

Mary Peltola won the election with 51.5% in the final round,
according to unofficial results on August 31st.

PELTOLA BUILT ON A STRONG FIRST-ROUND LEAD. Mary Peltola led by 9
points among first choice preferences, and also earned enough
second-choice rankings to hold on to her lead. Peltola clearly had
deep support, evidenced by her strong first-choice lead, and broad
support, evidenced by her ability to earn second-choices from Begich
supporters.

PELTOLA’S ISSUES-ORIENTED MESSAGING RESONATED WITH VOTERS. Peltola
ran a mostly positive, issues-focused campaign and she made attempts
to connect with voters across the political spectrum. Her campaign
included a focus on Alaskan fisheries and some level of openness to
oil and gas exploration (not a typical Democratic position.) 

COME-FROM-BEHIND WINS REMAIN RARE IN RCV. This election matches most
of our experience with RCV. In the past, only 4% of RCV elections
resulted in a come-from-behind winner. The greatest “comeback”
margin in an RCV tabulation was ten points (i.e. the ultimate winner
trailed the 1st-choice leader by ten points) so a lack of a comeback
win in this race matches expectations.

BEGICH VOTERS SPLIT ON THEIR 2ND CHOICE. When Nick Begich was
eliminated, 50% of Begich voters ranked Palin second; 29% crossed
party lines and ranked Mary Peltola; and 21% chose not to rank a
second choice. This means 79% of Begich voters ranked a second choice.
In other RCV elections, 71% of voters
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rank multiple candidates.

ANTI-RCV MESSAGING PROBABLY HARMED PALIN. Palin went negative quickly
this campaign, and repeatedly spoke out against ranked choice voting.
Ranked choice voting incentivizes collaboration while disincentivizing
negative campaigning. Voters take cues from candidates, and results
in New York
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us voters may be less likely to use their backup choices for
candidates who speak out against RCV. This made it tougher for Palin
to convince Begich supporters to rank her as their 2nd choice. 

HIGH VOTER TURNOUT. Voter turnout was higher than the last 3 primaries
in Alaska. 

VOTERS UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM AND LIKE THESE REFORMS. According to a
new poll from Patinkin Research Strategies, 85% of Alaskans said
ranking is simple and 95% said they received instructions on how to
complete their ranked choice ballot – indicative of the Alaska
Division of Elections’s great voter education efforts. 62% of
Alaskans support the state’s new primary system that is open to all
voters and allow the top-four vote getters to advance to the general
election with RCV. 

99.8% OF BALLOTS CAST WERE VALID. This is no surprise – other RCV
exit polls
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tell us that voters like ranked choice voting once they use it. 

PREVIEW OF THE NOVEMBER REMATCH: These three candidates will face off
again in just three months, probably joined on the ballot
by Libertarian Chris Bye
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(The recent election was a special election to fill the vacancy
created by the passing of former Representative Don Young. The winner
will only serve until January.) We can expect higher turnout in
November. Other things to watch for: 

* Will Peltola’s lead grow after she spends a few months in
Washington?
* Can newcomer Libertarian Chris Bye earn enough support to pass one
of the other three candidates and avoid being eliminated in the first
round? 
* Will any campaigns shift their strategy? Remember, anti-RCV
messaging on the campaign trail can hurt candidates because voters
pick up on that messaging
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it can hurt a candidate’s chances. 

DEB OTIS is the Director of Research at FairVote. With a decade of
experience in research and analytics, Deb is passionate about sharing
the data-driven case for why our country needs election reform. In
addition to ranked choice voting and proportional representation,
Deb's areas of research include comparative electoral systems,
political polarization, redistricting, representation for women and
people of color, the electoral college, and election recounts. Deb is
a graduate of Boston University with degrees in Economics and Physics
and she lives in Washington, DC.

About FAIRVOTE 

Our Mission: FairVote is a nonpartisan organization seeking better
elections for all. We research and advance voting reforms that make
democracy more functional and representative for every American.

What We Do: FairVote has a proven record since 1992 as a nonpartisan
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