Fall is arriving with two consecutive quarterly readings of negative real GDP growth: the −1.6 percent final estimate for Q1 2022 and −0.9 percent first estimate for Q2 2022. I note that gross output, which consists of activity across the economy’s full supply chain, rose 2.0 percent in the first quarter, the latest reading available and the weakest growth since Q2 2020. As with GDP, most of the output gain came from the services sector. The shrinking GDP has been accompanied by raging inflation and tight labor markets, not to mention continuing energy uncertainties stemming from the Russo-Ukrainian War as well as the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.