Aug. 31, 2022
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Republicans are still more enthusiastic than Democrats about the Congressional midterms, but what about Dobbs?
By Robert Romano
For the first half of 2022, Republicans hoping to retake the House and Senate in the Congressional midterms were consistently leading the generic ballot question all the way through June in national polls of both likely and registered voters by a few points.
It’s what you’d expect to see in a midterm cycle: The opposition party that just lost the White House, being out of power, is anxious to reclaim power, and so, on average, they turn out in greater numbers than the incumbent party who just won the White House. It’s fatigue versus anxiety.
You know the numbers but here they are again. In midterm elections dating back to 1906 through 2018, the party that occupied the White House lost seats in the House 27 out of 30 times, or 90 percent of the time, with losses averaging 31 seats. The exceptions were 1934, 1998 and 2002, when the incumbent party was able to pick up seats in the House.
In the Senate, comparatively, the incumbent party lost seats 21 out of 30 times, or 70 percent of the time, with losses averaging three seats in the Senate.
But since the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in Dobbs v. Jackson, effectively returning the question of abortion to the states, the race for the House of Representatives has seemingly tightened in a number of national polls, particularly polls of registered voters — as opposed to likely voters where pollsters attempt to model turnout based on historical trends like the midterm cycle.
For example, a week before the Dobbs decision, Republicans led the June 18-June 21 Economist/YouGov generic ballot poll of registered voters by 5 points, 45 to 40 percent. In that poll 81 percent of former President Donald Trump's voters said they were definitely voting, and 70 percent of President Joe Biden's voters said they were definitely voting.
A week after Dobbs, the generic ballot in the July 2-July 5 Economist-YouGov poll had flipped, with Democrats leading by 3 points, 43 to 40 percent, including picking up 3 points among both men and women. Republicans dropped 6 points among men and 2 points among women. Also, Trump voters lost 3 points of enthusiasm with 78 percent saying they were definitely voting, and Biden voters gained 7 points of enthusiasm, with saying 77 percent saying they were definitely voting. Democrats also gained 8 points of enthusiasm.
In terms of how those same voters in the same poll felt about the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, 34 percent said they approved and 54 percent disapproved, including 12 percent of Trump voters and 12 percent of Republicans who strongly disapproved. 53 percent of independents disapprove overall.
I should add this is not the outcome I was personally hoping for after Dobbs. I was elated by the Supreme Court’s decision because I've always been pro-life. I also felt the decision might even help bolster Republicans if they, say, started talking about the fertility crisis, labor shortages and pro-family tax incentives for marriage and child rearing. I still believe that to be true over the longer term as the Baby Boomer retirement wave continues, leading to even more labor shortages.
Which is why I find it remarkable that the GOP’s messaging on this issue has been somewhat scant since the decision, other than issuing statements praising the Supreme Court. What's their message on abortion? Leave it to the states, but otherwise, it appears to be to change the topic.
In Kansas, one of the reddest states, voters overwhelmingly rejected a referendum that would have allowed the state to ban abortions under the state's constitution by a 1.5 to 1 margin, a 19-point rout, 59 percent to 41 percent.
On the other hand, the Republican-controlled Senate seat there seems to be safe for Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), where Republicans still numerically outnumber Democrats by a wide margin there and where Trump carried the state by 15 points in 2020. Despite the referendum result, Moran leads his opponent, State Senator Tom Holland, 58 percent to 37 percent in the latest John Brown Freedom Fund poll. So, maybe not that much has really changed politically?
That said, the pro-choice Republican segment — about 12 percent of Trump voters and Republicans if Economist-YouGov is to be believed — might still show up in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, etc. Senate races that are more closely contested. These voters are particularly a wild card. Will they simply stay home in November, dampening Republican turnout? Will they vote for Democrats and actually, U.S. politics just realigned? Or could they be persuaded to stay in the GOP column?
Now, voter attitudes are settling down a bit in the latest Aug. 20-Aug. 23 Economist-YouGov poll, with Democratic enthusiasm down significantly even as they still lead the poll among registered voters, now with only 71 percent of Biden voters saying they're definitely voting, down 6 points from post-Dobbs week of 77 percent. 76 percent of Trump voters say they're definitely voting.
66 percent of Republicans say they’re definitely voting, compared with 59 percent of Democrats, a 7-point edge on enthusiasm. In the meantime, independents enthusiasm in the election is down 10 points from its pre-Dobbs level of 49 percent definitely voting to 40 percent now. That’s an interesting wrinkle, since independents and swing voters are the ones who besides the opposition party being fired up are what gives the opposition party the advantage in midterms.
The real slippage in the generic ballot does appear to come from independents. Before Dobbs, Republicans were leading independents 50 percent to 25 percent. Immediately afterward, Democrats were leading independents 34 percent to 32 percent. And now, Republicans are leading independents, 32 percent to 29 percent.
Overall, two months after Dobbs, and Republicans and Trump voters are still more enthusiastic than Democrats and Biden voters by a bit, particularly after the FBI’s raid of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Fla. looking for documents that it appears Trump had already declassified before he left office.
So, how to handicap the race?
Modeling turnout based on historical trends (the midterm cycle, the presidential re-election cycle, etc.) is usually critical to modern polling. If the historical model prevails, the likely voters polls will be vindicated and the registered voters polls, including Economist-YouGov, will look really silly in hindsight.
The GOP should still pick up House seats based on the historical trends, but there's that 10 percent chance they might not. It's rare but it does happen in midterms, and usually because of a single issue. In 2002, it was 9/11. In 1998, it was public fatigue with the Bill Clinton impeachment. In 1934, it was the Great Depression. Could overturning Roe be another such black swan?
In might. Democrats are gaining ground in some of these registered voters polls, particularly among independents after looking really grim this spring, but not necessarily in the so-called likely voters polls. The Economist-YouGov poll still shows the GOP with an enthusiasm edge, but if Democrats can overcome that like they did in July over the next month or so, then it could make some sense to pay a little more attention to the registered voters polls headed into November. If not, maybe go with the likely voters polls that are accounting for the opposition party’s historical advantage this year. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2022/08/republicans-are-still-more-enthusiastic-than-democrats-about-the-congressional-midterms-but-what-about-dobbs/
Federal Trade Commission Overreach Ripe for SCOTUS Scrutiny
Aug. 31, 2022, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement in response to Supreme Court likely challenging the aggressive expansion and power grabs of the FTC.
“The Federal Trade Commission under Joe Biden’s radical appointees has made a point to overturning internal rules of action and aggressively expanding its power. In the wake of the Supreme Court’s West Virginia v. EPA case which curtailed the agency’s ability dramatically expand environmental laws beyond any reasonable congressional grant of power, the FTC’s power grab may be next on the chopping block. The FTC faces a likely challenge to a part of their claimed authority to internally litigate cases effectively dictating their outcome at the Supreme Court in the Axon v. FTC case.
The administrative state has become a hotbed of government expansion over the years, and the FTC’s radical expansion of the federal government’s reach should serve as a cautionary tale for members of the United States Senate who vote to confirm members of little known quasi-governmental entities which have extraordinary control over the free enterprise system. The nation can no longer afford the GOP acceptance of whoever President Biden appoints to positions of power. In fact, you cannot claim to be a limited government Senator and vote for appointees who seek to rip apart the fabric of our nation. It is our sincere hope that the Biden FTC serves as a constant reminder that the left has abandoned the comity of bipartisanship needed to ensure legitimacy of an unelected administrative body’s actions, and Republicans are elected by their constituents to protect them from wayward regulators.
And in the meantime, let’s hope that the FTC feels the pointy legal sword for their blatant attempts at partisan, corporate score settling when they are forced to defend their positions before the highest court in the land in what can only be hoped is the near future.
For media availability contact Americans for Limited Government at [email protected].
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2022/08/federal-trade-commission-overreach-ripe-for-scotus-scrutiny/
Miranda Devine: FBI put the Hunter Biden story right in Facebook’s lap
By Miranda Devine
In his eagerness to ingratiate himself with mega-podcaster Joe Rogan, Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg inadvertently revealed that the FBI had been more explicit than previously known in its private warning about Russian disinformation shortly before The Post published the Hunter Biden laptop story, which the social media company suppressed before the 2020 election.
While Facebook won’t say exactly what the FBI told them, it has told The Post that Hunter Biden was not mentioned. But it refuses to rule out whether Joe Biden or Ukraine were raised in the FBI’s defensive briefing to Facebook weeks before the Oct. 14, 2020, publication of our story implicating the then-Democratic presidential candidate in his son’s lucrative Ukrainian influence-peddling schemes.
“Basically, the background here is the FBI basically came to us, some folks on our team, and was like, ‘Hey, just so you know you should be on high alert,’ ” said Zuckerberg. “ ‘We thought there was a lot of Russian propaganda in the 2016 election, we have it on notice that basically there’s about to be some kind of dump that’s similar to that so just be vigilant.’ ”
When Rogan asked if the FBI had told Facebook to be on guard specifically for our story about Hunter Biden’s laptop, Zuckerberg claimed, rather unconvincingly that he did “not remember . . . specifically” but “it basically fit the pattern.”
In response to questions from The Post, last week Facebook refused to give the date of the FBI private briefing or details of the “pattern” the FBI told them to look out for.
Since our story had nothing to do with Russian disinformation, what made Facebook think it was the “dump” the FBI warned them about? We asked Facebook: “Was there mention made in the FBI briefing of Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, Ukraine or a laptop?”
Facebook’s answer was curious. “The FBI shared general warnings about foreign interference — nothing specific about Hunter Biden.”
Note the omissions.
Whatever was said, the briefing must have been specific enough for Facebook to recognize immediately that our story was exactly what the FBI was warning about and move at record speed to throttle it. At 11:10 a.m. the morning the story went live, Democratic operative Andy Stone, Facebook’s communications manager, issued a statement on Twitter announcing “we are reducing its distribution on our platform” while the story is “fact checked by Facebook’s third-party fact checking partners.”
All morning the bombshell story had been the subject of frenetic commentary from journalists on twitter. But Stone’s announcement killed it stone dead. Twitter followed Facebook’s lead and locked The Post’s account for two weeks.
Mission accomplished. Polls show that the outcome of the election may have been different if the story had not been censored.
The FBI’s involvement in the censorship amounted to election interference, and as we have learned since from whistleblowers, the interference by a cabal of FBI agents to suppress derogatory information about the Biden family extended well beyond The Post’s story.
So, the question is, how did the FBI know about our story weeks before it was published, maybe even before we were told about the laptop by Rudy Giuliani’s lawyer Bob Costello?
Were they spying on John Paul Mac Isaac, the owner of the Delaware Mac repair shop where Hunter had abandoned his laptop in April 2019? Mac Isaac believed he was under surveillance after he first contacted the FBI on October 9, 2019, via his father, to tell them he had the laptop and was concerned about evidence of crimes he believed it contained. The FBI’s response was oddly hostile.
What followed was a curious visit to his Delaware home by FBI agents Mike DeMeo and Joshua Wilson of the FBI’s Baltimore office a month later, and again to his store on December 9, this time with a subpoena for Hunter’s water-damaged laptop and a hard drive clone of its contents which Mac Isaac had made.
The case ID on the receipt the FBI gave him was linked to a money-laundering case out of the Baltimore field office. What we didn’t know until after the election was that the US attorney in Delaware, David Weiss, had been investigating Hunter since 2018 over alleged tax evasion, money laundering and violations of the Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA), and the Baltimore FBI office supposedly was conducting the associated investigation.
Rudy’s role
We don’t know whether Mac Isaac was under FBI surveillance. But we don’t have to speculate about Rudy Giuliani.
We know the FBI spied on the former mayor’s cloud for two years from May, 2019, a month after he began working as then president Donald Trump’s personal attorney. A year after raiding Giuliani’s Upper East Side apartment last April, ostensibly over FARA violations, the FBI returned all his devices, without charging him, and told the New York Times he was no longer under investigation.
So the FBI had access to all Giuliani’s emails and iMessages for two years. Were they spying on Giuliani in order to spy on Trump?
Unfortunately for them, Trump rarely writes emails or texts so they came up empty there. But it is possible that they saw the email to Giuliani from his lawyer Bob Costello at 4.28 p.m. on Aug. 27, 2020, telling him of Mac Isaac’s “amazing discovery.”
“I am arranging to get a complete copy of the hard drive as it contains lots of materials beyond the Ukraine stuff according to the owner . . . The five emails he sent show that Hunter was directly involved in orchestrating his father Joe Biden’s intervention to stop the Ukrainian investigation of Burisma,” Costello wrote. “I believe that we are on the verge of a game changing production of indisputable evidence of the corruption we have long suspected involving the Biden’s and Ukraine — but there is more.”
Costello then forwarded Mac Isaac’s original email addressed to Giuliani, which described how Hunter came into his store disheveled and reeking of alcohol, and attaching a copy of the work order with Hunter’s signature, the FBI receipt and subpoena.
The FBI had access to it all. They had had the laptop for nine months and they knew Mac Isaac was legitimate.
We know they looked at the laptop because Mac Isaac received a series of calls from an agent the day after they seized it, asking how to plug it in.
‘Same playbook’
As we know now from whistleblowers who came forward to Sen. Chuck Grassley, the FBI obstructed its own investigation of the laptop.
Timothy Thibault, an FBI assistant special agent in charge at the Washington field office, has been on leave since Grassley started raising concerns about his suppression of negative information about Hunter before the 2020 election.
The whistleblowers also told Grassley that the FBI had “developed information about Hunter Biden’s criminal financial and related activity . . . verified and verifiable derogatory information” but that was “falsely labeled as disinformation” by FBI supervisory intelligence analyst Brian Auten in August 2020.
Auten has been identified as the analyst who failed to alert his colleagues in 2016 to the “inconsistencies” in the phony Steele dossier, cooked up by the Clinton campaign to claim Trump was a Russian agent.
The same playbook was being applied to the Hunter Biden information.
To view online: https://nypost.com/2022/08/28/fbi-put-the-hunter-biden-story-right-in-facebooks-lap/