BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

PUTIN ‘CAN'T JUST WAIT EVERYBODY OUT’: The announcement of almost $3 billion in future aid for Ukraine’s military will have no immediate impact on the war in Ukraine, but that’s not the point. Delivery of the various weapons systems in the package won’t begin to arrive for months, and deliveries will stretch out over several years.

The point is to convince Russia that U.S. support for Ukraine is not going away. “Vladimir Putin seems to believe that Russia can win the long game — outlasting the Ukrainians in their will to fight and the international community's will to continue to support Ukraine,” said Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, at a Pentagon briefing. “This … package is a tangible demonstration that this is yet another Russian miscalculation.”

Kahl says despite battlefield setbacks and the poor performance of his largely conscript military, Putin shows no signs of giving up his overall strategic objectives of seizing most of Ukraine, toppling the regime, and reclaiming Ukraine as part of a new Russian Empire.

“What he has done is lengthened his timeline in recognition that he's off plan,” said Kahl. “His theory of victory is that he can wait everybody out, he can wait the Ukrainians out because they will be exhausted and attrited, he can wait us out, because we'll turn our attention elsewhere. He can wait the Europeans out because of high energy prices, or whatever.”

The U.S. hopes Putin gets the message, changes his calculus, and begins to negotiate an exit strategy, but either way, Kahl says, Ukraine is going to need a formidable military force in the future. “This type of package does not presume any particular outcome of a conflict in Ukraine,” said Kahl. “So, for example, if the war continues for years, this package is relevant. If there is a ceasefire or a peace settlement, this package is still relevant, because Ukraine needs the ability to defend itself and deter future aggression.”

US ANNOUNCES LARGEST UKRAINE AID PACKAGE ON SIXTH-MONTH ANNIVERSARY OF INVASION

WHAT’S INCLUDED: Unlike the previous arms packages announced earlier this month, the weapons systems will not come from U.S. military stocks, but will be procured directly from private defense contractors, with the $2.98 billion in funding coming from the congressionally approved Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, or USAI.

“Deliveries of this USAI package will begin in the next several months, and continue over the coming years,” said Kahl. “While many of these capabilities are not intended to directly contribute to today's fight, they will form the backbone of a robust future Ukrainian force, capable of defending Ukraine for years to come.” The list includes:

• 6 additional National Advanced Surface to Air Missile Systems, or NASAMS, along with  additional munitions 
• 245,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition for the NATO-standard artillery systems 
• 65,000 rounds of 120 mortar ammunition. 
• 24 counter-artillery radars
• Puma unmanned aerial systems
• Support equipment for ScanEagle UAS systems
• Vampire counter-unmanned aerial systems
• Laser-guided rocket systems
• Funding training, maintenance, and sustainment

BIDEN'S $3 BILLION PACKAGE TO UKRAINE INCLUDES THESE ADDITIONAL DEFENSE SYSTEMS

WHAT’S NOT INCLUDED: There is a noticeable absence when it comes to Ukraine's most pressing need, namely modern fighter aircraft to attack Russian positions and provide close air support for Ukrainian troops as they try to take back territory lost in the invasion.

Right now, the U.S. is focused on making Ukraine’s current fleet of aging MiG fighters as capable as possible, including modifying U.S. HARM radar-killing missiles to be fired from the Soviet-era MiG-29s. “The Ukrainians in recent weeks have been using the HARM missiles to great effect to take out Russian radar systems,” said Kahl.

As for providing Ukraine with newer “fourth generation” fighter jets, such as U.S. F-16s, or European equivalents, Kahl says that discussion is ongoing. “I can tell you that fighter aircraft remain on the table, just no final decisions have been made,” he said, while adding a big part of the question is the future cost of sustaining any fleet of modern jets.

“We're trying to be very deliberate about what systems we think makes the most sense for Ukraine to have in that context, and also matters very much — can they sustain it? Can they afford it?” Kahl says. “Because, of course, you know, billions of dollars of international assistance is not, you know, may not be something 10 years from now, or 20 years from now. So, these also have to be systems that Ukraine itself can sustain.”

'MOTIVATION AND LEADERSHIP MATTER IN WARFARE': LESSONS FROM WAR IN UKRAINE

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden is scheduled to call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky today to discuss the latest U.S. security assistance and to reassure him that the U.S. will remain committed to supporting Ukraine in its fight to defend its sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression.

“Six months of relentless attacks have only strengthened Ukrainians’ pride in themselves, in their country, and in their thirty-one years of independence,” Biden said in a message congratulating Ukraine on its Independence Day. “Today and every day, we stand with the Ukrainian people to proclaim that the darkness that drives autocracy is no match for the flame of liberty that lights the souls of free people everywhere.”

AT LEAST 15 DEAD AND DOZENS INJURED IN RUSSIAN ATTACK ON UKRAINIAN TRAIN STATION

BORIS JOHNSON POPS UP IN KYIV: Outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a surprise appearance in Kyiv yesterday to show solidarity on Ukraine’s Independence Day, prompting questions at the White House of when Biden, one of the few Western leaders not pay a personal visit to Zelensky, might make the trip.

“I don't have any travel to speak to today,” said NSC spokesman John Kirby at a White House briefing. “If and when a trip by the president makes the most sense, then clearly we'll appropriately consider that.”

Kirby stressed that Biden is in frequent contact with Zelensky, including today’s phone call, and noted that other high-level U.S. officials have made personal appearances. “Secretary Blinken has traveled to Kyiv, Secretary Austin has traveled to Kyiv. As you know, we have an ambassador there, as well,” he said. “We have good connectivity with our Ukrainian counterparts.”

“Ukraine is lucky to have such a friend as Great Britain,” Zelensky posted on his official government website. “Today I thanked the Prime Minister for all the support we received from him as a leader and from the society of Britain — our reliable partner. This assistance really brings our victory closer. And we will definitely win, we are sure of that,” he said.

‘MINOR INJURIES’ AFTER ROCKET ATTACK ON US TROOPS IN SYRIA: The U.S. Central Command says one member of the U.S. military suffered a minor injury and two others are under evaluation after rocket attacks in Syria by suspected Iran-backed militants.

The U.S. responded immediately, killing “two or three” of the militants, and destroying three vehicles and equipment used to launch some of the rockets, according to a CENTCOM statement.

The attacks were among several from Iranian-backed groups targeting sites where U.S. forces are located, and came after the Pentagon said it made a concerted effort to avoid casualties in U.S. airstrikes that were ordered by Biden this week in response to earlier attacks.

“We had essentially scoped out 11 bunker targets on this site, we ended up prosecuting nine of them because shortly before the strike, there was new evidence that there might be individuals near two of the other bunkers. So, we held off striking those out of an abundance of caution, because our goal was not to produce casualties in this instance,” said Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for policy.

Kahl said there was no doubt that Iran was linked to the Aug. 15 attacks. “We believe we have Iran dead to rights on attribution. The UAV parts that we've collected, for example, traced directly back to Tehran,” he said.

“We have communicated to the Iranians. We're not going to tolerate attacks by Iran-backed forces on our forces anywhere in the world to include in Syria, and we won't hesitate to protect ourselves and take additional measures as appropriate,” Kahl said.

US TROOPS INJURED IN ROCKET ATTACKS BY SUSPECTED IRAN-BACKED MILITANTS IN SYRIA

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL INCHES CLOSER: Despite Iranian intransigence over the last months, it appears the 2015 nuclear deal, which former President Donald Trump exited in 2018, may be coming back from the dead.

The State Department said yesterday it has reviewed the latest version of the “final text” of the revised agreement and forwarded its response to the European Union, which is coordinating the negotiations.

“The lines of communication with the EU are open and we're using those lines and when we have something more to say, we certainly will,” said the NSC’s John Kirby, who despite the reticence to negotiate in public, revealed that Iran has made some “concessions” in the latest text.

“We are closer now than we were just even a couple of weeks ago because Iran made the decision to make some concessions,” Kirby said. “So that's a positive step forward, but I would add very quickly … gaps remain. We're not there.”

The deal faces stiff opposition in Congress, and not just from Republicans.

“Let me make this clear, this deal with Iran will be dead on arrival in a Republican-controlled Congress and Congress will strengthen sanctions against Iran,” said Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL), lead Republican of the House Armed Services Committee. “Any assurances to the contrary that the Biden administration gives to Mullahs in Tehran is worth less than the paper it’s written on.”

ISRAEL ACCUSES BIDEN OF LETTING IRAN DEFY NUCLEAR 'RED LINE' IN NEGOTIATIONS

WALTZ: TIME TO GO BACK TO THE MAXIMUM PRESSURE CAMPAIGN: In an interview on Fox News last night former Green Beret Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) argued it’s long past time for the Biden administration to give up on the idea of reviving the 2015 agreement, which he says Iran routinely violated.

“The Iranians are targeting American officials, have been implicated in assassinations, right now as we speak, holding American citizens hostage in Evin Prison in Tehran, and now attacking the U.S. military in Syria through their proxies,” Waltz told Fox’s Bret Baier. “The last thing we should be doing is releasing billions and sanction relief right into the IRGC. Also, likely lifting secondary sanctions on the IRGC as a workaround from not dropping them from the terrorism list so that they can further finance their malign activity.”

Waltz appeared on Fox alongside Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, who argued the deal was better than nothing.

“Since we've withdrawn from the Iran Nuclear Deal, in addition to continuing to be a very malign actor in the region, they've started enriching uranium at a higher level, and they're closer to a bomb now than they've ever been,” said Smith. “So, if there is some agreement to get them further away from a bomb, then I'm kind of at a loss for why so many people are opposed to it.”

“We have to go back to the maximum pressure campaign and bargain from a position of strength rather than the current position of weakness,” said Waltz.

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL 'CLOSER NOW,' BUT 'WE'RE NOT THERE YET,' WHITE HOUSE SAYS

GRAHAM, BLUMENTHAL: DESIGNATE RUSSIA A STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM: In a joint statement, Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) are calling on the Biden administration to honor the unanimous will of the Senate and designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism.

“It is now time to deliver a decisive blow to the Putin regime by designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism under U.S. law. This would be a decisive blow to Putin’s economy and make it more difficult for others to come to his aid,” the senators write. “The Senate unanimously adopted our resolution to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. We are hopeful that the Biden Administration and Secretary Blinken will act soon. The sooner, the better.”

INDUSTRY WATCH: The U.S. Air Force has announced its possession of four test versions of the Boeing MH-139A Grey Wolf multi-mission helicopter. The next-generation helicopter passed its required FAA certification a few weeks ago.

The Grey Wolf will replace the last model of the Vietnam-era “Huey” helicopter, “offering a significant capability increase in speed, range, endurance, payload, and survivability,” the Air Force said in a statement.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: US troops injured in rocket attacks by suspected Iran-backed militants in Syria

Washington Examiner: US announces largest Ukraine aid package on sixth-month anniversary of invasion

Washington Examiner: Biden's $3 billion package to Ukraine includes these additional defense systems

Washington Examiner: At least 15 dead and dozens injured in Russian attack on Ukrainian train station

Washington Examiner: 'Motivation and leadership matter in warfare': Lessons from war in Ukraine

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Calendar

THURSDAY | AUGUST 25

11 a.m. — Potomac Officers Club virtual second annual Space Intelligence Forum discussion, with Brig. Gen. Gregory Gagnon, director of intelligence at U.S. Space Command https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2nd-annual-space-intelligence-forum

1:20 p.m. — Richard Kidd, deputy assistant secretary of defense for environment and energy resilience, discusses "Climate Change as a Threat to National Security" at the virtual GovExec 2022 Climate Summit. https://climatesummit.govexec.com

2 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Implementation of the Intelligence Community's Commercial Space Strategy," with Dave Gauthier, director of commercial and business operations at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; Pete Muend, director of the National Reconnaissance Office's Commercial Systems Program Office; and Theresa Hitchens, space and Air Force reporter at Breaking Defense https://www.insaonline.org/event

5:15 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. N.E. — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Navigating the Navy’s Future,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Brent Sadler, senior research fellow, Heritage Foundation https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/navigating-the-navys-future

FRIDAY | AUGUST 26

10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: "The U.S. Marine Corps, the National Defense Strategy, and the future of expeditionary warfare," with retired Marine Corps Lt. Col. Amy McGrath, member of the U.S. Naval Academy's Board of Visitors; Michael O'Hanlon, director of research for the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program; and Melanie Sisson, fellow at the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-us-marine-corps

11 a.m. — National Press Club virtual discussion: "One Year Since The Fall of Kabul," with Zahra Joya, founder of Rukhshana Media; Nazira Karimi, journalist, television presenter, author and entrepreneur; Mustafa Kazemi, veteran war correspondent; Rebecca Blumenstein, deputy managing editor of the New York Times; and Elizabeth Hagedorn, State Department correspondent at Al-Monitor https://www.press.org/events/one-year-fall-kabu

12 p.m. — American Society of International Law and the American Red Cross virtual book discussion: “The Right to Privacy during Armed Conflict,” with co-editor Asaf Lubin, professor at Indiana University; and co-editor Russell Buchan, professor at the University of Sheffield https://www.asil.org/event/right-privacy-during-armed-conflict

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