BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

UKRAINE WEAKENING RUSSIA ON ‘DAILY BASIS’: In the war of attrition in Ukraine, U.S. weapons are being effectively employed to degrade Russian positions in both the south and the east, according to a senior U.S. defense official. “I would say that you are seeing a complete and total lack of progress by the Russians on the battlefield,” the official told reporters in a Zoom call on Friday. “In that sense, we are at a different phase than where we were even a couple of months ago.”

Thanks to U.S. and European-supplied HIMARS and other long-range multiple launch precision artillery systems, the Ukrainians continue to exact “a high price” on Russian forces, which are unable to advance in many areas. “We actually are seeing the Ukrainians on a daily basis successfully weakening the Russian forces,” said the official. “What we are seeing the Ukrainians able to do is spread these capabilities out in a very effective way and concentrate these precision strikes on exactly the right Russian positions — Russian command and control nodes, Russian logistics nodes — to achieve a useful effect.”

NOT MUCH GROUND CHANGING HANDS: Despite the ability to stymie Russian forces, Ukraine has yet to mount much of a counteroffensive to push the Russians out of occupied areas. “We haven't seen a significant retake of territory,” the official admitted.

But even when Russian troops make modest advances, they aren’t able to “translate tactical gains into operational successes,” according to the latest campaign assessment from the Institute for the Study of War.

“Russian forces have consistently failed to take advantage of tactical breakthroughs to maneuver into Ukrainian rear areas or unhinge significant parts of the Ukrainian defensive lines. They therefore continually give the Ukrainians time to disengage tactically and re-establish defensible positions against which the Russians must then launch new deliberate attacks,” the ISW assessment concludes. “This phenomenon helps explain the extremely slow rate of Russian advances in the east and strongly suggests that the Russians will be unable to take much more ground in the coming months unless the situation develops in unforeseen ways.”

DAUGHTER OF PUTIN ALLY ALEXANDER DUGIN KILLED IN CAR BLAST

RUSSIA’S MANPOWER SHORTFALLS: One factor in the summer stalemate is Russia’s continuing problem replacing and motivating troops.

“A consistent contributing factor to these problems is Russia’s classification of the war as a ‘special military operation’ which limits the state’s powers of legal coercion,” says the latest intelligence assessment from the British Defense Ministry. “Russia is likely increasingly struggling to motivate the auxiliary forces it is using to augment its regular troops in the Donbas,” the assessment says, concluding that “some combat units are deemed unreliable for offensive operations.”

The U.K. assessment takes note of video circulated on Ukrainian social media channels which purports to show members of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic militia declaring refusal to be deployed as part of further Russian offensive operations in neighboring Donetsk.

“The fighters claimed they had fulfilled their duty in securing the LPR’s control over all of Luhansk Oblast, which was secured in July 2022, and were unwilling to fight in Donetsk Oblast despite threats and intimidation by senior commanders.”

RUSSIAN NAVY BASE HIT BY UKRAINIAN 'KAMIKAZE DRONE' AS VIDEO SHOWS HUGE EXPLOSION

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY, THE WAR GAMES ARE BACK: For the first time since former President Donald Trump canceled them in 2018, the U.S. and South Korea are staging large-scale joint military exercises aimed at maintaining the readiness to deter or repel a North Korean attack.

Trump called the exercises “war games,” and declared them too expensive and too provocative, as he was pursuing diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. But in the four years since, there has been no progress in persuading North Korea to give up its nuclear arsenal, and the rhetoric from Pyongyang has become increasingly bellicose, with Washington believing that the North is preparing for a new nuclear test.

The resumption of the annual August Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise will include field exercises with tens of thousands of U.S. and South Korean troops, along with tanks, aircraft, and warships. The U.S. insists the two weeks of drills are purely defensive, but North Korea regularly denounces them as a rehearsal for an invasion.

In a statement last week, U.S. and South Korean officials said resumption of the large-scale exercises was intended to “bolster combined readiness,” and warned that if North Korea carried out a nuclear test, the U.S. and South Korea would have a “firm bilateral response, to include options to deploy U.S. strategic assets to the region,” a phrase generally meant to imply nuclear weapons.

BREAKING DOWN THE LATEST UKRAINE AID PACKAGE: The Pentagon on Friday announced the latest drawdown of U.S. military equipment for Ukraine, the 19th such package, valued at $775 million and bringing total U.S. assistance to $12.6 billion.

Top of the list is more GMLRS — the Guided Multiple Rocket Launch System munitions that are fired by the Lockheed Martin HIMARS launchers that are credited for turning the tide of battle in recent weeks.

“With GMLRS, we're in a mode where we are going to be providing these additional tranches of GMLRS in a very sustainable fashion, in a very predictable fashion for the Ukrainians so that they have exactly what they need to continue to use the HIMARS system,” a senior defense said in announcing the package.

The U.S. is also sending 36,000 105 mm artillery rounds for howitzers that Ukraine already has, plus an additional 16 howitzers to increase their firepower.

Also included in the latest shipment are High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles, or HARM missiles, which home in on radar signals to take out air defense systems. The U.S. is increasing the shipment of the Raytheon missiles after Ukraine showed it could fire them successfully from its fleet of Soviet-era MiG fighter jets.

Rounding out the package are:

• 1,000 Javelin anti-armor systems
• 2,000 anti-armor rounds for Carl-Gustaf M4 recoilless rifles
• 1,500 Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
• 15 Scan Eagle Unmanned Aerial Systems
• 40 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles with mine rollers
• 50 Armored High-Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles 
• Night vision devices, thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders

WHERE ARE THE AIR DEFENSES? One of Ukraine’s most urgent needs is for air defenses that can shoot down Russian missiles, which continue to inflict indiscriminate damage on civilians and nonmilitary targets.

But the Pentagon said Friday the promised NASAMS air defense system is still two to three months away from delivery.

“It is not surprising that NASAMS deliveries are still months away,” said retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, former carrier strike force commander, who is now a senior fellow at the foundation for the Defense of Democracies. “This is a complex system that requires significant training and longer lead time acquisition items.”

The National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System is designed and developed jointly by Raytheon and Norway’s Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace.

A B-52 SHOW OF FORCE: The U.S. has dispatched a pair of Air Force B-52s to England, and today the long-range nuclear-capable bombers will conduct low approach flyovers over southeastern Europe in a show of force intended to demonstrate “U.S. commitment and assurance to NATO allies and partners.”

“The aircraft will fly over the government building of Macedonia in Skopje, North Macedonia; Skanderbeg Square Tirana, Albania; down the coast of Montenegro; and Lovrijenac in Dubrovnik, Croatia,” according to a press release from U.S. Air Forces in Europe, which also invites citizens to take photos, videos, and share them on its Facebook page.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Daughter of Putin ally Alexander Dugin killed in car blast

Washington Examiner: Biden speaks with world leaders about need for Ukraine nuclear plant inspection

Washington Examiner: Dennis Rodman heading to Russia to seek release of Brittney Griner

Washington Examiner: Russian navy base hit by Ukrainian 'kamikaze drone' as video shows huge explosion:

Washington Examiner: 'It's crazy': Crenshaw condemns 'defund the FBI' rhetoric

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Guided by British special forces, Ukraine is escalating the 'deep battlespace' fight against Russia

Washington Post: A Putin ally’s daughter was killed near Russia’s capital: What to know

AP: Russians down Ukrainian drones in Crimea as war broadens

AP: Russia Deploys Hypersonic Missiles to Its Baltic Exclave

Washington Post: Chernobyl Tour Group Secretly Helped Track Russian Troops, Tanks, Supplies

Reuters: US Air Force Secretary: China's Actions Around Taiwan Increase Risk

New York Times: Delegation From U.S. Goes To Taiwan For Trade Talks, Risking Beijing’s Anger

CNN: China Flexes Military Muscles, Then Targets Taiwan's Citrus Fruits

Yonhap: N. Korea Likely To Conduct Nuclear Test Before U.S. Midterm Elections: Ex-Spy Chief

Breaking Defense: Russia’s Naval Doctrine May Call For Challenging The West, But Does It Have The Shipyards?

Washington Times: Navy Losing The Battle Against Rusty Ships, Some Fear

Reuters: U.S. commits to Afghan asset talks despite frustration with Taliban

Bloomberg: Army Microsoft Combat Goggle Test ‘Adequate,’ Pentagon Says

Military.com: Applications to Service Academies Plummet Amid Recruitment and Pandemic Woes

Air Force Magazine: Half of Air Force Advanced STEM Billets Go Unfilled or Require Waivers

Air Force Magazine: The Evolution of Space-Based ISR

Air Force Magazine: Space Force Hopes for Wear Testing of Uniforms in Spring 2023

AP: Military Families’ Housing Benefits Lag as Rents Explode

19fortyfive.com: Putin Is Sweating: U.S. HIMARS and MLRS are a Game-Changer in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Putin's War in Ukraine is Completely Stalled Now

19fortyfive.com: Would Putin Dare Use Nuclear Weapons? Managing His Ukraine Fears Are the Key

VOA: US Air Force Targeted in 'Propaganda Attack' in Kuwait

Space News: Doug Lamborn Opinion: DoD falling short on responsive space capabilities

Calendar

MONDAY | AUGUST 22

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "The Military Dimensions of the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis," with M. Taylor Fravel, director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Security Studies Program; Cristina Garafola, associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation; Roderick Lee, director of research at the Air University's China Aerospace Studies Institute; and Christopher Twomey, associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School https://www.csis.org/events/military-dimensions-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "Asia's New Leaders and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific," with Richard Javad Heydarian, incoming lecturer at the University of the Philippines's Asian Center; Min Joo Kim, reporter at the Washington Post; Kei Koga, Japan fellow at the Wilson Center and assistant professor at the Nanyang Technological University; Patrick Cronin, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute's Asia-Pacific Security Program; and Hayley Channer, fellow at the Hudson Institute and senior policy fellow at the Perth USAsia Centre https://www.hudson.org/events/2141-virtual-event

12:30 p.m. University of Alaska Fairbanks — Wilson Center and the University of Alaska conference on "Alaska's Minerals: A Strategic National Imperative," with Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska; Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska; and former Gov. Frank Murkowski, R-Alaska https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/external-event

4 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute in-person book forum event: “A New Approach to US-China Relations,” with Aaron Friedberg, nonresident senior fellow, AEI and author of Getting China Wrong; and Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-new-approach-to-us-china

TUESDAY | AUGUST 23

7: 50 a.m. — Second Summit of the Crimea Platform, with Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://crimea-platform.org/en

9 a.m. — The Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion with Defense Intelligence Agency CIO Doug Cossa on "JWICS (Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System) modernization, encryption and Zero Trust on both classified and unclassified networks https://www.insaonline.org/event/coffee-and-conversation-with-doug-cossa/

11 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "One Year Later: Reflecting on America's Departure from Afghanistan," with Elliot Ackerman, writer at the Atlantic and author of The Fifth Act: America's End in Afghanistan; former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Navy Adm. James Stavridis, vice chair of global affairs and managing director of the Carlyle Group; M. Lyla Kohistany, president and co-founder of PROMOTE and Nilofar Sakhi, director of policy and diplomacy at McColm & Company https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/reflecting-on-americas-departure-from-afghanistan/

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar: “Army Counter-Drone Efforts,” with Maj. Gen. Sean Gainey, director, Joint Counter-Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Office and director of fires in the office of the deputy Army chief of staff for operations. Register at https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/USA-Noon-Report

4 p.m. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on "Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China," with co-author Hal Brands, professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and former special assistant to the Defense secretary for strategic planning; co-author Michael Beckley, associate professor of political science at Tufts University and visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; and Jude Blanchette, CSIS chair in China studies https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-danger-zone-coming-conflict-china

WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 24

8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club seventh annual Army Summit with Army Undersecretary and Chief Management Officer Gabe Camarillo https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2022-army-forum/

10 a.m. — Wilson Center's Global Europe Program virtual discussion: “Ripples of War: Six Months Since Russia's Invasion into Ukraine," with Andrian Prokip, director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future's Energy Program; Bruce Jentleson, professor of political science at Duke University; Jill Dougherty, former foreign affairs correspondent at CNN; Robin Quinville, director of the Wilson Center's Global Europe Program; and William Pomeranz, director of the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/ripples-war-six-months

10 a.m. — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace virtual Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum, with Rear Adm. Scott Pappano, program executive officer, strategic submarines https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

10 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association discussion with Japan Air Self Defense Forces Maj. Gen. Hiroyuki Sugai, defense and air attache at the Embassy of Japan in the U.S. RSVP at [email protected]

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Unpacking the New U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa," with Joseph Sany, vice president of the U.S. Institute of Peace Africa Center; and Zainab Usman, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Africa Program https://www.csis.org/events/unpacking-new-us-strategy

10 a.m. 1957 E Street N.W. — George Washington University's Space Policy Institute and Aerospace's Center for Space Policy and Strategy discussion: “After the Kinetic Energy Anti-Satellite Moratorium: What Next?" with Chirag Parikh, executive secretary of the National Space Council https://calendar.gwu.edu/after-ke-asat-moratorium-what-next

1:00 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual and in-person event: “The Future of Army Vertical Lift,” with Maj. Gen. Walter Rugen, director, Future Vertical Lift Cross Functional Team, U.S. Army Futures Command; and Cynthia Cook, director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and senior fellow, International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/future-army-vertical-lift

THURSDAY | AUGUST 25

11 a.m. — Potomac Officers Club virtual second annual "Space Intelligence Forum discussion," with Brig. Gen. Gregory Gagnon, director of intelligence at U.S. Space Command https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-2nd-annual-space-intelligence-forum/

2 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Implementation of the Intelligence Community's (IC) Commercial Space Strategy," with Dave Gauthier, director of commercial and business operations at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; Pete Muend, director of the National Reconnaissance Office's Commercial Systems Program Office; and Theresa Hitchens, space and Air Force reporter at Breaking Defense https://www.insaonline.org/event

5:15 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. N.E. — Heritage Foundation discussion: “Navigating the Navy’s Future,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Brent Sadler, senior research fellow, Heritage Foundation https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/navigating-the-navys-future

FRIDAY | AUGUST 26

10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: "The U.S. Marine Corps, the National Defense Strategy, and the future of expeditionary warfare," with retired Marine Corps Lt. Col. Amy McGrath, member of the U.S. Naval Academy's Board of Visitors; Michael O'Hanlon, director of research for the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program; and Melanie Sisson, fellow at the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-us-marine-corps

11 a.m. — National Press Club virtual discussion: "One Year Since The Fall of Kabul," with Zahra Joya, founder of Rukhshana Media; Nazira Karimi, journalist, television presenter, author and entrepreneur; Mustafa Kazemi, veteran war correspondent; Rebecca Blumenstein, deputy managing editor of the New York Times; and Elizabeth Hagedorn, State Department correspondent at Al-Monitor https://www.press.org/events/one-year-fall-kabu

12 p.m. — American Society of International Law and the American Red Cross virtual book discussion: “The Right to Privacy during Armed Conflict,” with co-editor Asaf Lubin, professor at Indiana University; and co-editor Russell Buchan, professor at the University of Sheffield https://www.asil.org/event/right-privacy-during-armed-conflict

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