Afghanistan Terrorism Report: July 2022

Afghanistan Terrorism Report July 2022 

By Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler and Joshua Fisher-Birch

Following is the July 2022 installment of “Afghanistan Terrorism Report.” The authors provide a monthly analysis concerning the developing terrorist threat in Afghanistan as well as a comprehensive overview of that month’s al-Qaeda and ISIS-K propaganda.

Due to the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri at the end of July 2022, this report covers July and relevant items from the first week of August 2022 to outline ISIS-K’s initial reactions to the death of the leader of al-Qaeda. It is noteworthy that at the time of publication, al-Qaeda propaganda outlets have yet to comment on this incident.

Following the death of Zawahiri, pro-ISIS-K propaganda outlets reacted immediately, speculating that the Taliban must have invited him to stay in Kabul and that they must have cooperated with the United States to enable his killing. Pro-ISIS-K propaganda claims that this was the Taliban fulfilling their commitments under the Doha Agreement, including by pointing to the fact that the Taliban have not released a statement of condolences for the death of Zawahiri.

Rather than the Taliban cooperating with the U.S., all available information indicates that the Taliban sheltered Zawahiri in Kabul. He was killed by a U.S. drone while staying in a house in the Sherpur neighborhood of Kabul, which prior to the takeover of power by the Taliban, used to be the home of high-ranking officials of the former Afghan government. According to media reports, the house in which Zawahiri was killed belonged to the acting minister of interior of the Taliban regime, Sirajuddin Haqqani. The U.S. government officially confirmed that it was aware of Zawahiri’s location at this house for several months. Therefore, rather than being unaware of Zawahiri’s presence in Kabul, as the Taliban claim, all evidence indicates that the Haqqani network, which has historically been the link between the Taliban and al-Qaeda, actively sheltered this top global terrorist inside one of the most secure neighborhoods in the capital of Afghanistan.

While speculating about the Taliban’s involvement in the death of the al-Qaeda leader, several ISIS-K- linked propaganda posts also criticized Zawahiri, claiming that he had become a puppet of foreign intelligence services and was no longer involved in operational decision-making. Furthermore, pro-ISIS-K propaganda listed Zawahiri’s failures, such as opposing the creation of the so-called caliphate and issuing positive statements about former Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi and therefore, betraying the legacy of Osama bin Laden. For some time, pro-ISIS-K propaganda criticized Zawahiri for his closeness to the Taliban.

Interestingly, on July 14, shortly before his death, Zawahiri released a public message criticizing the concept of the nation-state and the international system, indirectly attacking the Taliban. This occurred after a meeting in Kabul at the beginning of July, where religious and tribal leaders called for the international community to recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. This meeting was also attended by the leader of the Taliban, Haibatullah Akhundzada, demonstrating the importance the regime afforded to this gathering. ISIS-K propaganda strongly criticized the declaration issued at the conclusion of the meeting. In a lengthy document released on July 11, ISIS-K-linked outlet Al-Azaim refuted each of the eleven points of the meeting’s declaration, arguing that these demands amount to apostasy.

Pro-ISIS-K propagandists continued to attempt to delegitimize the Taliban regime in other posts. In several messages on July 21, pro-ISIS-K propaganda highlighted the moral corruption of the Taliban regime, claiming that the Taliban did not punish officials accused of adultery in Bamiyan province. In the same posts, the pro-ISIS-K propagandist also recounts a now infamous case from March 2022. In March, the brother of Alam Gul Haqqani, a member of the Haqqani network and at that time the head of the Afghan passport office in the ministry of interior, was arrested while attending a party in a Kabul hotel that included alcohol, music, and the attendance of women not wearing hijab. The video of the arrest was shared widely on social media at the time.

In July, ISIS-K propaganda outlets also continued to portray a high operational tempo of terrorism attacks in Afghanistan. ISIS-K attacked the gathering of religious and tribal leaders in Kabul several times, and unsurprisingly, ISIS-K propaganda outlets reported on these attacks. After several months of ISIS-K attacks concentrating primarily in the north and east of the country, in July, ISIS-K reported an attack in Herat, the first of such attacks in the west of the country since April. In this recent attack, ISIS-K targeted a bus with Taliban military officials, killing two and wounding 20 individuals. Remarkably, attacks claimed by ISIS-K propaganda posts in Pakistan seem to gather speed. In July, ISIS-K propaganda highlighted several attacks in Pakistani cities along the border with Afghanistan. Furthermore, once again, ISIS-K claimed a rocket attack against the Uzbek town of Termez, near the northern border of Afghanistan. On July 5, media reports confirmed that five rockets fired from Afghanistan had landed in the city.

Map of incidents highlighted by ISIS-K social media propaganda in July 2022

https://www.mappr.co/political-maps/afghanistan-provinces-map /

The attacks in Pakistan and Uzbekistan demonstrate that the Taliban remain unable to prevent terrorist attacks from being launched from within the country. The relationship with Uzbekistan is significant to Afghanistan, as it is the country’s largest electricity supplier, followed by Tajikistan and Iran. Interestingly, according to media reports, despite Taliban claims that international sanctions inhibit financial transfers, the Taliban transferred several million U.S. dollars to Uzbekistan to settle outstanding electricity bills at the beginning of August. This transfer also highlights the ongoing risks of the Taliban using largescale asset flows out of the country to launder proceeds from the illicit drug trade, which according to both pro-ISIS-K propaganda outlets and international media reports continues as well as for the laundering of illicit income generated by the diversion of aid.

In June, ISIS-K-linked propaganda outlets highlighted the activities of the RAND Corporation and the Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan (SIGAR). On July 18, the ISIS-K linked publication “Voice of Khorasan” again commented on an international organization, this time taking aim at the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, calling it a conspiracy. In a lengthy article, “Voice of Khorasan” warned of the activities of Pugwash and stated that ISIS-K should kill anyone cooperating with the organization. Despite Taliban representatives taking part in such gatherings in the past, it is not clear why ISIS-K propaganda chose to highlight this organization, as Pugwash announced no new reports or meetings focusing on Afghanistan in recent months

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