[ Amid the furore following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, US
academic Zhu Zhiqun answers five questions on everyones minds about
the visit — Does the US Congress follow its own version of China
policy? Why has Beijing responded so vehemently?]
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FIVE BIG QUESTIONS ABOUT NANCY PELOSI’S TAIWAN VISIT  
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Zhu Zhiqun
August 5, 2022
Think China
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_ Amid the furore following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, US
academic Zhu Zhiqun answers five questions on everyone's minds about
the visit — Does the US Congress follow its own version of China
policy? Why has Beijing responded so vehemently? _

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducts conventional missile
tests into the waters off the eastern coast of Taiwan, from an
undisclosed location in this handout released on August 4, 2022.,
Eastern Theater Command/Handout via Reuters

 

Amid speculations, warnings, anxiety and excitement, US House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi completed her highly anticipated Taiwan visit
[[link removed]].
Many questions arise from this controversial trip, which will have a
far-reaching impact on the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations.

1. DOES THE US CONGRESS FOLLOW ITS OWN VERSION OF CHINA POLICY?

Congress is an independent branch of the US government, and the
president has no authority over its members. While this is true, it is
unhelpful to use the separation of powers to justify Pelosi’s
contentious Taiwan visit. 

The question is: Should members of Congress follow the long-standing
US policy towards China? Pelosi travelled in her official capacity as
House speaker, the second in line for presidential succession. Her
visit contradicts the US policy of maintaining unofficial relations
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Taiwan.

Congress is indeed a different branch of the US government, but it is
part and parcel of the same government. Members of Congress have every
right to voice their own views on foreign affairs, but can they follow
their own version of US policy? 

Since the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, the White House
and Congress have treated Taiwan differently. While successive
administrations have followed the “one China” policy that
“acknowledges” the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China,
Congress has essentially treated Taiwan as a de facto separate state.
Recently, with new legislation upgrading US-Taiwan relations such as
the Taiwan Travel Act
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Congress is more assertive with its “one China, one Taiwan”
approach.

Congress will deny it has a separate China policy, but its practice of
treating Taiwan as a de facto independent state creates problems for
the China-US relationship.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi walks as she leaves the parliament in
Taipei, Taiwan, 3 August 2022. (Ann Wang/Reuters)
Taiwan was omitted from her official itinerary, although it was the
focus of her Asia tour. Clearly, Pelosi knew that a trip to Taiwan was
problematic. She did not announce the Taiwan trip either; instead she
leaked it through The Financial Times
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Even after leaving Washington, she kept everyone guessing whether and
when she might go to Taiwan. All these show that she understood the
sensitivities and risks associated with the trip. Once in Taiwan,
Pelosi was not secretive anymore, and her trip had all the trappings
of an official visit. 

Congress will deny it has a separate China policy, but its practice of
treating Taiwan as a de facto independent state creates problems for
the China-US relationship. The US government will most likely continue
to use the separation of powers and American domestic laws to justify
any departure from the “one China” commitment.

2. WHY HAS BEIJING RESPONDED SO VEHEMENTLY?

Some have suggested that Taiwan conducts congressional or
parliamentary diplomacy regularly. For example, European Parliament
Vice President Nicola Beer
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Taiwan in July 2022. But a visit by the US House speaker carries much
more weight.

Many note that in 1997, then House speaker Newt Gingrich visited
Taipei. So, what is the big deal with Pelosi’s visit 25 years later?
There are differences between the two: the previous one happened as
China-US relations were moving on an upward trajectory.
Notably, Gingrich
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the position that Taiwan and China were parts of one country.  

The current visit occurred at a perilous time in China-US relations
when Beijing has diminishing confidence in the US’s commitment to
“one China”. Pelosi said that she was in Taiwan to send an
“unequivocal message
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that “America stands with Taiwan”. At one point during a press
conference in Taipei, Pelosi mentioned Taiwan as a “country
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Pelosi’s visit may signal to politicians around the world that they
can show support for Taiwan in person despite opposition from Beijing.

A man watches a CCTV news broadcast about joint military operations
near Taiwan by the Chinese People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Eastern
Theater Command, at a shopping centre in Beijing, China, 3 August
2022. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)
Beijing is afraid that the floodgate will be open following Pelosi’s
visit, and politicians from the US and elsewhere will visit Taiwan one
after another. Pelosi’s visit may signal
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politicians around the world that they can show support for Taiwan in
person despite opposition from Beijing.

Pelosi’s visit fits within a recent trend of lawmakers from liberal
democracies making more regular visits to Taiwan, especially in the
context of the Russia-Ukraine war. Beijing fervently opposes the
portrayal of the Taiwan issue as a battle between autocracy and
democracy. In Beijing’s view, Taiwan is about China’s sovereignty
and territorial integrity, nothing else. Beijing worries that this
“autocracy versus democracy
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narrative will shape the global view of Taiwan.

The fact that the visit took place on the heels of the phone call
between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden, and
Pelosi was not deterred by Xi’s “don’t play with fire”
warning, is particularly frustrating for Beijing, and Xi cannot afford
to appear weak ahead of the 20th Party Congress in the fall. 

Washington’s “one China policy” is different from Beijing’s
“one China principle”.

3. WHO IS CHANGING THE TAIWAN STRAIT STATUS QUO?

Washington, Taipei and Beijing all oppose unilateral change of the
status quo, but who has changed or is changing the status quo?

Washington’s “one China policy” is different from Beijing’s
“one China principle”. For Beijing, both the mainland China and
Taiwan form “one China”, which is represented by the People’s
Republic of China (PRC) internationally. Washington officially
recognises the PRC but does not explicitly accept Beijing’s position
that Taiwan is part of China. Washington has maintained robust
“unofficial relations” with Taiwan since 1979 when it switched
diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

For decades, Washington has followed the so-called “strategic
ambiguity
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regarding cross-Strait disputes, which is a dual deterrence strategy
— deterring the PRC from using force against Taiwan and deterring
Taiwan from provoking an attack by Beijing. In recent years, a growing
number of analysts and Congress members argue that the US should move
from “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity
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This screen grab from a video by the People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Eastern Theater Command on 4 August 2022 made available on the
Eurovision Social Newswire (ESN) platform shows a missile being fired
during a Chinese military exercise in China on 4 August 2022. (PLA
Eastern Theater Command/ESN/AFP)
From Beijing’s perspective, Washington has gradually hollowed out
“one China”. Chinese analysts point to factors such as the Taiwan
Travel Act, confirmation of US troops in Taiwan, and Biden’s
repeated vows to defend Taiwan. Beijing doubts whether Washington
still strictly follows its long-standing “one China” policy.

China, on the other hand, has moved incrementally to take actual
control of the Taiwan Strait, such as dispatching warplanes around
Taiwan and ignoring the median line in the Taiwan Strait that it
tacitly consented to. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s
large-scale live-fire military drills around Taiwan following
Pelosi’s visit amounted to air and sea blockade of Taiwan.

In Taipei, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government overthrew
the foundation of peaceful exchanges across the strait while asserting
that Taiwan and China are not subordinate
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4. WHAT DOES THE PELOSI TRIP MEAN FOR CHINA-US RELATIONS? 

According to the Chinese ambassador to the US Qin Gang
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the Pelosi visit represents an upgrading of “the substantive
relations between the US and Taiwan” and “deals a serious blow
to the political foundation of China-US relations.” 

Many well-respected China and Taiwan scholars and former government
officials such as Michael Swaine, Bonnie Glaser, Shelley Rigger and
Chas W. Freeman have warned about the dire consequences of Pelosi’s
Taiwan trip. Even the Biden administration
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it necessary to make its concerns known. Many people believe that
Pelosi’s Taiwan trip was reckless
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unnecessarily provocative and will aggravate tensions between the US
and China as well as in cross-Strait relations. 

Pelosi’s visit shattered political trust between the US and China.
It highlighted the imperative to establish the crisis control
mechanism and set up guardrails in the relationship.

 

Soldiers exiting from AAV7 amphibious assault vehicle run to position
during an amphibious landing drill as part of the Han Kuang military
exercise in Pingtung, Taiwan, 28 July 2022. (Ann Wang/Reuters)
 

Most people believe that Taiwan will be the party feeling the brunt
of Beijing’s pressure
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In addition to military drills around Taiwan, the scale of which is
unprecedented, Beijing also imposed economic sanctions against Taiwan
by suspending the import of citrus fruits and seafood products and the
export of natural sand, a key component for the production
of semiconductor
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Both Chinese and US governments face strong domestic challenges.
Rising nationalism in China needs to be tamed so that its long-term
goal of national rejuvenation and peaceful reunification is not
disrupted. Anti-China sentiment in Congress and the media makes it
difficult for Washington to stick to the “one China” policy.

Pelosi’s visit shattered political trust between the US and China.
It highlighted the imperative to establish the crisis control
mechanism and set up guardrails
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the relationship.

5. WHAT DID TAIWAN GAIN FROM PELOSI’S VISIT?

Pelosi’s visit was widely celebrated in Taiwan. Many people in
Taiwan appreciated her reaffirmation of US support for Taiwan. Her
visit also helped boost Taiwan’s international visibility and gain
international sympathy. However, the cost is higher tensions in the
Taiwan Strait and further damaged China-US relations.

Taiwan will become more dependent on the US for its future and will
gradually lose control of its status as the PLA continues to expand
its actual control of the Taiwan Strait. The DPP government’s
anti-China stance will also harden Beijing’s resolve to be fully
prepared for a military solution. 

The Taiwanese public seem to be suffering a “threat fatigue” and
are not taking Beijing’s warnings seriously.

 

A US-made C-130 aircraft prepares to land on a runway at the Hsinchu
Air Base in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on 5 August 2022. (Sam Yeh/AFP)
Beijing has attempted to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese
public while penalising the DPP government. However, this is an
impossible mission since China’s sabre-rattling will end up
galvanising stronger international support for Taiwan and further
strengthening Taiwanese support for the DPP.

CNN noticed that in the weeks leading up to the visit when
international media disproportionately focused on the Taiwan
Strait, Taiwanese news
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instead mostly focused on scandals surrounding upcoming local
elections and the island's largest annual military drills.

The Taiwanese public seem to be suffering a “threat fatigue” and
are not taking Beijing’s warnings seriously. One wonders if the
Taiwanese, with this “business as usual” mentality, are fully
aware of the dangers lying ahead.

Related:

* Taiwan likely to become biggest loser with Pelosi's visit
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* China and the US not ready for showdown over Taiwan
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* Taiwan: A runway for great powers to flex their muscles?
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* Has China’s propaganda on the Taiwan situation failed its
public?
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* Nationalist sentiment exploding in China over Pelosi's visit
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_[ZHIQUN ZHU, PhD, is Professor of Political Science and International
Relations and Chair of Department of International Relations at
Bucknell University, USA. He was Bucknell’s inaugural director of
the China Institute (2013-2017) and MacArthur Chair in East Asian
politics (2008-2014). He previously taught at University of
Bridgeport, Hamilton College, University of South Carolina, and
Shanghai International Studies University. In the early 1990s, he was
a senior assistant to the consul for press and cultural affairs at the
US consulate-general in Shanghai. Dr. Zhu is a member of the National
Committee on United States-China Relations and is frequently quoted by
international media on Chinese and East Asian affairs.]_

* China
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* Taiwan
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* Nancy Pelosi
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* Biden Administration
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* Congress
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* U.S. foreign policy
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* U.S. military policy
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* Xi Jinping
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* Communist Party of China
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* US-China relations
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* Asia
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* Asia/Pacific region
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