August 5, 2022

2022 is shaping up to be the worst year on record for military recruiting.  The Army will likely miss its initial recruiting goals by tens of thousands of soldiers.  Other services are also experiencing significant shortfalls. Unlike previous years when the military missed its goals, this does not look like a transitory issue.

Indeed we predict that military recruiting has entered a long-term draught which will only be fixed by whole-of-society solutions and new ways of looking at the problem. Below is some of Heritage’s research on the subject.

2022 is going to be a military recruiting crisis.  Action by the Administration and the Congress has thus far been insufficient. There are solutions to the military recruiting crisis, but they require work, resources, and prioritization. Action must be immediate. 

Unless America counteracts negative recruiting trends, the future strength of the U.S. military—and thus the security of the nation—is likely to be compromised. This 29-page report includes in-depth analysis of military recruitment and policy recommendations to counteract these negative recruiting trends.

Understanding today’s labor market is important to understanding military recruiting problems. The U.S. faces massive worker shortages, particularly among young workers, caused by bad government policies—not the coronavirus pandemic.

Army recruiters are most effective when they have boots on the ground and are active in local communities, which until recently was extremely limited. There are also fewer and fewer veterans every year to inspire military service in the next generation.

The Army announced in March it has been forced to cut its size by 12,000 soldiers because it cannot find enough volunteers to fill its ranks. Speaking to the challenge, Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville stated that they are in a “war for talent.” A war they are seemingly losing.

According to 2017 Pentagon data, 71 percent of young Americans between 17 and 24 are ineligible to serve in the United States military. Put another way: Over 24 million of the 34 million people of that age group cannot join the armed forces—even if they wanted to. This is an alarming situation that threatens the country’s fundamental national security. 

In the U.S. Army War College’s National Security Seminar keynote address, Thomas Spoehr addresses the topic of Army recruiting challenges and making enlistment a valid option to the younger generation.

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