 |
from The Ripon Forum
August 2022
To Confront the Global Food Crisis, Quiet American Diplomacy Will No Longer Do
by MARK LOWCOCK
BlackRock founder Larry Fink attracted attention this month when he told the Financial Times he was concerned about the global food situation. “The one thing I worry about that we don’t talk enough about is food. This isn’t just an inflation concern. There are geopolitical concerns that result from this … There has been tremendous destruction of arable land in Ukraine … Globally the cost of fertilizer is up almost 100 per cent … that is harming the quality of the crop worldwide.”
He’s right. We are now in the midst of the biggest food crisis the world has seen in decades. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically exacerbated it. But even before that, the combination of conflict, climate change and COVID had pushed the number of people facing acute food insecurity from less than 600 million in 2015 to nearly 830 million today – a hike of more than 30 percent.
The Secretary-General of the United Nations has warned that we may see multiple famines in the next year. Famines – mass loss of life driven by starvation – were common all over the world for most of human history. The worst of them occurred in the 20th century. But, in a little remarked-on sign of progress, they had almost disappeared, with just one significant occurrence so far this century – when 250,000 Somalis lost their lives in 2011. How shocking to contemplate that progress being thrown away.
We are now in the midst of the biggest food crisis the world has seen in decades. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically exacerbated it.
There’s still time to prevent this happening. Congress and the Administration have made smart and generous decisions in recent months and progress now will require continued U.S. leadership. But others have to play their part, too. Action is needed in four areas.
First, there’s an urgent need to get more grain, especially wheat and corn, onto the market. The easiest way to do that is to extricate the 20 million tons stuck in silos in Ukraine’s Black Sea ports as a result of the Russian blockade. Pressure on Putin from Turkey, the Middle East, and Africa has led to an agreement to allow that grain out. Time will tell whether that deal is honored. It would also be desirable for those countries holding large strategic grain reserves to release a modest proportion of them to free up the market and take the edge off prices. The U.S. has already made a start; others, notably China, should do so, too. Export curbs should likewise be avoided.
Second, recognizing that exports from Russia and Ukraine may not return to their 2021 and previous levels anytime soon, policymakers in other countries with significant export potential need to strengthen incentives for additional food production. Now may be the time to revisit mandates that incentivize the diversion of food crops for biofuel. Particular attention needs to be paid to input markets, especially for fertilizer. The African Development Bank has reported that fertilizer prices on the continent have risen by 300 percent, with a shortage of 2 million tons. In the 20 years from the mid-1980s, assistance from developed countries for agricultural development in poorer ones collapsed. Again, the U.S. has made a start in reversing that; more is needed and others should step up, too.
But even before that, the combination of conflict, climate change and COVID had pushed the number of people facing acute food insecurity from less than 600 million in 2015 to nearly 830 million today – a hike of more than 30 percent.
Third, increasing the global food supply will not help if countries with large populations suffering food insecurity and unable to grow enough at home cannot finance imports. Many have seen their public finances crushed by COVID. The leading shareholders should mandate the international financial institutions to offer more affordable support. And the current tepid dialogue on debt relief and restructuring needs heating up – with all the creditors round the table.
And finally, some countries home to millions of people on the verge of starvation simply will not get through without more help from the leading humanitarian agencies in the UN, the Red Cross, and the NGO world. Incremental progress is being made. The UN says it has received $11 billion for its humanitarian responses in 2022, more than at this stage in previous years. Some of the appeals for countries at greatest risk of famine – Somalia, Afghanistan, and Yemen among them – are now better funded than three months ago. But we are not out of the woods.
Rapid implementation of recent U.S. decisions – and dropping some requirements that have added costs and slowed things down in the past, like U.S. cargo preference requirements – will be crucial. Others who should do more – including, regrettably, Britain – are lagging.
Quiet American diplomacy to bring them along might need to get louder..
Sir Mark Lowcock served as Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator for the United Nations from 2017 to 2021 and is currently a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Center for Global Development.
____________________________
The Ripon Forum is published six times a year by The Ripon Society, a public policy organization that was founded in 1962 and takes its name from the town where the Republican Party was born in 1854 – Ripon, Wisconsin. One of the main goals of The Ripon Society is to promote the ideas and principles that have made America great and contributed to the GOP’s success. These ideas include keeping our nation secure, keeping taxes low and having a federal government that is smaller, smarter and more accountable to the people.