[ A surge in grassroots activism on behalf of abortion rights. An
abrupt drop in small donations to Republicans. A slew of polls showing
that the ruling in Dobbs was highly unpopular. Kansas shows if
abortion is a prominent issue, they and we can win.]
[[link removed]]

THE KANSAS ABORTION VOTE WAS A STUNNER. BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE
MIDTERMS?  
[[link removed]]


 

Jonathan Cohn
August 3, 2022
Huff Post
[[link removed]]


*
[[link removed]]
*
[[link removed]]
*
*
[[link removed]]

_ A surge in grassroots activism on behalf of abortion rights. An
abrupt drop in small donations to Republicans. A slew of polls showing
that the ruling in Dobbs was highly unpopular. Kansas shows if
abortion is a prominent issue, they and we can win. _

Abortion rights advocates celebrate the results of the Kansas
referendum.election at watch party in Overland Park, Kansas on August
2, 2022, Dave Kaup / Agence France-Presse (AFP) // Slate

 

Nearly six weeks have passed since the Supreme Court took away the
right to abortion
[[link removed]] in
America and in that time there have been multiple signs of a backlash
in the making.

A surge in grassroots activism
[[link removed]] on
behalf of abortion rights. An abrupt drop in small donations to
Republicans
[[link removed]].
A slew
[[link removed]] of polls
[[link removed]] showing
that the ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization
was highly unpopular
[[link removed]].

But these were just hints. There was no way to know whether the
decision would affect election results ― until Tuesday, when Kansas
voters decisively rejected an anti-abortion ballot measure
[[link removed]].

The proposal would have amended the Kansas constitution, clearing
the way for Republican lawmakers to enact sweeping, possibly total
bans on abortion
[[link removed]].
It failed by 18 points.

Or, to put it another way, nearly 6 in 10 Kansans just voted to keep
abortion legal ― which, as HuffPost’s Alanna Vagianos
[[link removed]] explained
in her dispatch from Wichita, has big significance beyond state
borders.

“Since Roe fell, just over a dozen states in the South and Midwest
have already severely restricted or banned abortion, making Kansas an
unexpected refuge for abortion care. Texas, Oklahoma, South Dakota,
Missouri and Arkansas all have total abortion bans in effect. Other
states, including North Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming and Iowa, are in
court challenging severe restrictions or waiting on bans to take
effect. Put all those states together and you have most of the Midwest
and much of the South.”

But what about the political implications? Just how much optimism can
abortion rights defenders take from Kansas? What would it take to get
similar results in other states and nationally?

The Turnout Numbers Are Mind-Boggling

Probably the most encouraging sign for abortion rights supporters is
the turnout numbers. About 910,000 residents cast ballots, which
is more than twice the turnout rate of the last two primaries
[[link removed]] and
approaching presidential election levels.

A particularly telling statistic is the turnout among
“unaffiliated” voters ― that is, Kansans who didn’t register
with one party or the other, meaning they couldn’t even vote in the
nominating contests for U.S. Senate, governor and other races.

“This was done intentionally to make sure people wouldn't vote, and
I think the opposite happened.”

- Ethan Winter, Data for Progress

In recent primaries, only a few thousand unaffiliated voters cast
ballots. This time, more than 150,000 did, according to a tabulation
by Daniel Donner
[[link removed]], a
contributing editor at DailyKos elections.

The figures are especially remarkable given that amendment’s backers
chose the August primary contest, rather than November’s general
election, because the primary typically gets lower, more
Republican-leaning turnout.

“This was done intentionally to make sure people wouldn’t vote,
and I think the opposite happened,” Ethan Winter
[[link removed]], a senior analyst at Data for
Progress [[link removed]] who ran field polls on
the Kansas referendum, told HuffPost. “This was a commanding win.”

One more data point seems relevant.

It’s about who registered to vote in Kansas after June 24, the date
that the Supreme Court handed down the Dobbs decision. Democrats had
an 8-point advantage during that time span, TargetSmart CEO Tom
Bonier [[link removed]] noted
on Twitter, even though GOP registrations outnumbered Democrats
statewide by 12 points. And 70% of the new registrants were women.

That last part is particularly interesting given some recent history.
Donald Trump’s presidency galvanized women voters, many of whom were
disengaged from politics beforehand. It’s a big reason Republicans
lost control of Congress in 2018, and he lost the presidency in 2020.

It’s not so hard to imagine something similar happening now, as the
Dobbs decision makes real a threat to women’s rights that previously
was, or seemed to many, purely hypothetical.

Kansas Politics Matter, Too

 

All that said, some of the political conditions in Kansas were working
against the amendment in ways that they might not work against similar
measures in other conservative states ― or against candidates who
oppose abortion rights in those states.

For one thing, ballot initiatives can run into “status quo bias.”
Voters are naturally suspicious of change, and there’s actually a
history of abortion restrictions failing at the ballot box, even when
polls suggest the the public is sympathetic to the cause. (Jonathan
Robinson [[link removed]], director of
research at Catalist, wrote about that phenomenon here
[[link removed]].)

 

Whether abortion rights will boost Democrats in November depends on
Democrats on the ballot making abortion a central issue. Michigan Gov.
Gretchen Whitmer (left) is among those trying to do just that. (Bill
Pugliano  //  Juff Post)
And although Kansas is a red state in a red part of the country,
it’s not quite as conservative as it might seem. Its sitting
governor is a Democrat and public opinion on abortion is evenly
divided, according to Pew Research
[[link removed]].

“The central plains states are less socially conservative than their
reputations,” said Natalie Jackson
[[link removed]], research director
at PRRI (and HuffPost’s former senior polling editor). “Kansas
is not Oklahoma. Kansas is not Texas. … Kansas is not the deep
South.”

Another caveat is that Republican voters who would reject abortion
bans in an up-or-down vote wouldn’t necessarily reject candidates
who support such bans ― in Kansas or anywhere else.

“Those Republicans are more likely to vote for a pro-life Republican
than they are to vote for a pro-choice Democrat simply because
they’re not only voting on one issue,” Jackson said. “They’re
voting on a package of issues and unless abortion is their only key
motivator, they’re still going to pick that Republican or
Democrat.”
 

A Lot Depends On Framing In November
 

All that said, Democrats trying to win elections can succeed by
winning over even a small number of Republican voters ― or by
boosting turnout among Democrats and independents who prioritize
abortion rights.

“The strategy for a candidate in a swing district, for a Democrat,
is definitely to keep abortion top of mind ― keep beating that drum,
that Republicans will act to take this right away,” Jackson said.
“It may not necessarily shift votes, but it can have a significant
impact on turnout … if you’re a Democrat, you’re leaving a lot
on the floor if you’re not pushing on abortion.”

It’s also possible that Dobbs has changed the usual dynamics of a
midterm election, in which a new president with a congressional
majority tries to push through an ambitious agenda ― and then
suffers a rebuke because the public becomes anxious about so much
change.

“I’ve always described the midterm effect as a kind of
balancing,” Winter said. “But with Dobbs, Republicans are the ones
pushing the biggest disruptions to the status quo.”

Winter said the effects could be especially strong in states where
Democratic governors or gubernatorial candidates can make a case they
and their allies in the legislature are the ones standing in the way
of new restrictions or bans on abortion that Republicans would enact.

“Kansas is not Oklahoma. Kansas is not Texas. … Kansas is not the
deep South.”

- Natalie Jackson, PRRI

One state where that may already be happening
[[link removed]] is
Michigan, where Tudor Dixon on Tuesday won the primary
[[link removed]] to
challenge incumbent Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer. Dixon has
said she supports a 1931 abortion law that’s still on the books and
would oppose creating exceptions for rape or incest
[[link removed]].

Whitmer has been warning about the threat to abortion rights for
months. She and Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel have vowed
not to enforce the 1931 law, while asking Michigan’s Supreme Court
to declare the ban incompatible with the state’s constitutional
guarantees of individual rights.

Whitmer, Nessel and fellow Democrats across the state are also backing
a ballot measure that would enshrine reproductive rights in the state
constitution once and for all. It’s on the ballot because organizers
submitted more than 750,000 signatures
[[link removed]],
which was both a record and nearly twice what the measure needed to
qualify. (Several other states also have such measures on their
November ballots.)

After Tudor won the nomination on Tuesday, Whitmer wasted no time
making abortion rights the issue. A fundraising email that went out
at 10:30 p.m.
[[link removed]] called
Dixon a “dangerous candidate,” and backed that with Dixon quotes
on abortion. All signs point to more attacks like that ― on the
stump, over social media and on the airwaves.

Not every Democrat running in November will be able to make abortion
such a prominent issue in their campaigns. But if Kansas shows
anything, it’s that Democrats should try ― and that, if they
succeed, they can preserve abortion access for millions.

_[JONATHAN COHN, Senior National Correspondent at HuffPost, writes
about politics and policy with a focus on social welfare. He is also
the author of SICK (2007, HarperCollins) and THE TEN YEAR WAR (2021,
St. Martin's). Jonathan worked previously at the New Republic and
American Prospect, and has written for the Atlantic, New York Times
Magazine, and Self, among other publications. His journalism has won
awards from the Sidney Hillman Foundation, the Association of Health
Care Journalists, World Hunger Year, and the National Women's
Political Caucus. Jonathan, who is a member of the National Academy of
Social Insurance and has been a visiting lecturer at the University of
Michigan, can be reached at [email protected]]_

 

The Night Before: Vote No Kansas - August 1 Message - Before the Vote
 

 

We are taking a break. We scheduled this post before knowing anything
about the results. Please follow trusted news sources for information.
We will be back after we rest.

"It's Monday August 1st [as we write this]. We don't know the outcome
yet. No matter how this shakes out, what we want to say is the same.
THANK YOU. We are so grateful for each and every person who fought
this with us.

PLEASE REST. The work you want to do, the organizations you are
involved in will be here when you get back. Take a break, resting is
part of political work.

FEEL YOUR FEELINGS. Even if we defeated the amendment, you may have a
complex mix of emotions. However you feel is valid. Feeling numb or
detached is also valid.

SEEK SUPPORT. Reach out to loved ones and support eachother. You don't
have to frieve or celebrate alone. If you are overwhelmed and in
crisis you can call 988 or text 800-273-8255 [ @ksphq ] to talk to
someone. [alternate resource Trans Lifeline]

THE WORK IS FAR FROM DONE. After you have rested, find a way to stay
engaged in ways that work for you. You don't have to reinvent yourself
to be politically engaged. You can do what you are already great at in
service to building the Kansas you want to live in. 

- VOTE NO KANSAS [[link removed]]

 

* Kansas
[[link removed]]
* Kansas vote
[[link removed]]
* 2022 Elections
[[link removed]]
* abortion
[[link removed]]
* abortion rights
[[link removed]]
* Women
[[link removed]]
* war on women
[[link removed]]
* Democrats
[[link removed]]
* GOP
[[link removed]]
* MAGA
[[link removed]]
* Donald Trump
[[link removed]]
* Republican Party
[[link removed]]
* Right-wing agenda
[[link removed]]
* GOTV
[[link removed]]
* Congress
[[link removed]]
* Michigan
[[link removed]]
* Supreme Court
[[link removed]]
* Dobbs v. Jackson
[[link removed]]

*
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*
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*
*
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