Friend, as you know, I have been saying for a while now that the talking heads predicting doom for Democrats this cycle have put the cart before the horse.
Looking at the results of Tuesday’s primaries, along with some new polling data, it is clear we have momentum. Let me explain why.
First off in Kansas, which is solidly pro-Trump, voters rejected removing constitutional protections for abortion rights by a significant margin. What matters more is who came out to vote: as it stands now, over 90% of the Biden turnout in Kansas came out to support women’s liberty, and only about half of the Trump turnout came out in favor of removing the protections.
That is a huge disparity, folks, and it proves what we saw from polling last month: Democrats are more energized than they’ve ever been this cycle, and they’re even more motivated than GOP voters now.
This is not some one-state fluke, either. If you look at a bunch of national polls – including several Republican-commissioned ones – Democrats are up by an average of 4-6 points in Congressional generic polls. Another poll from Monmouth that came out today asked registered voters: "Who would you rather have in control of Congress?" Last month it was Republicans by two points. Today it is Democrats 50 - Republicans 43, a swing of 9 points.
The momentum is real.
President Biden’s huge legislative wins in the Senate last week are going to carry significant weight. The policies in the Inflation Reduction Act are incredibly popular – over 70% of Americans are for reducing prescription drug prices and lowering healthcare costs.
On the other side, Kansas shows that even in red-leaning states, their policies are extremely unpopular. Rick Scott is still pushing a tax hike on nearly everyone earning less than $400,000 a year because he thinks they should have “skin in the game.” That will go over like a lead balloon.
The other key factor is the candidates themselves. I’ve highlighted why we need to keep great leaders like Maggie and Catherine in the Senate – elect Tim Ryan and beat JD Vance – and win the Governor’s and Senate races in places like Wisconsin.
I will have more about Arizona later this week, but ultra-MAGA Blake Masters is now the Senate nominee and it looks like the gubernatorial candidate is just as extreme. With recent polling suggesting that Arizona Latino voters are turned off by such ultra-MAGA candidates, they just keep handing us good shots to win, folks.
It’s clear we have the momentum. Now it’s up to us to keep the pressure on.
-Doug
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