Who Will Be Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s Successor? The death of Ayman al-Zawahiri this
week has left a temporary void in the leadership of al-Qaeda, but conte





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CEP Analysis: Al-Qaeda’s Next Leader

Who Will Be Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s Successor?



(New York, N.Y.) — The death of Ayman al-Zawahiri
<[link removed]> this week has
left a temporary void in the leadership of al-Qaeda, but contenders are
emerging as likely successors according to Counter Extremism Project (CEP)
Senior Director and former Coordinator of the United Nations Security Council’s
ISIL (Da’esh), al-Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Monitoring TeamDr. Hans-Jakob
Schindler <[link removed]>:



“Since its founding in 1988, al-Qaeda has only known two leaders, Osama bin
Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. Their deaths at the hands of U.S. forces, however,
do not signal the end of al-Qaeda. The terror network has proved that the
leadership vacuum is temporary, and a successor will soon be named.



“The most obvious and likely contender is Saif al-Adel
<[link removed]>, a senior leader and
Zawahiri’s second-in-command. He has reportedly lived in Iran since 2015 and
could easily move to neighboring Afghanistan, where al-Qaeda’s global
leadership is presently hosted. In fact, some reports suggest that he has
already crossed into Afghanistan, but there is no evidence to confirm this.



“Other potential contenders include Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen
(JNIM) leaderIyad Ag Ghaly
<[link removed]> and Abu Abd
al-Karim al-Masri
<[link removed]>, a
senior leader of Hurras al-Din (HaD), an al-Qaeda affiliated group in Syria.
Neither is as obvious a choice to lead al-Qaeda as Adel, however.”



Ghaly is an ethnic Tuareg from northern Mali and would be the first non-Arab
leader of al-Qaeda. However, as the emir of JNIM, Ghaly has transformed the
Sahel into one of the most dangerous regions in the world. He is aligned with
al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which has carried his statements on
social media, and been featured in al-Qaeda’s weekly al-Massar publication.
Today, he is widely believed to be part of al-Qaeda’s senior leadership.



Al-Masri has been active in al-Qaeda for many years. He is a member of the
shura council for al-Qaeda’s general command, led a reconciliation committee to
bridge disagreements between the al-Qaeda linked Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
and burgeoning al-Qaeda splinter groups, and has served as a senior HaD leader
since its founding in 2018. HaD is largely based in the northwestern Syrian
province of Idlib but is dwarfed by HTS. As a result, HaD—and by extension
al-Masri—are seen as less consequential.



To read CEP’s Saif al-Adel resource, please click here
<[link removed]>.



To read CEP’s Iyad Ag Ghaly resource, please click here
<[link removed]>.



To read CEP’s Abu Abd al-Karim al-Masri resource, please click here
<[link removed]>.



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