[“I think that Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will certainly
contribute to the deterioration of US-China relations,” said Philip
Thai, an associate professor of history and Asian studies at
Northeastern University. ]
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PELOSI VISIT TO TAIWAN WILL INCREASE TENSIONS BETWEEN US AND CHINA,
EXPERTS SAY  
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Travis Andersen
August 2, 2022
Boston Globe
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_ “I think that Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will certainly
contribute to the deterioration of US-China relations,” said Philip
Thai, an associate professor of history and Asian studies at
Northeastern University. _

In this photo released by the Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, US
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was greeted by Taiwan's Foreign Minister
Joseph Wu as she arrived in Taipei on Tuesday., Associated Press

 

Foreign policy experts said Tuesday that House Speaker Nancy
Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan
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a momentous event making her the highest-ranking American official in
25 years to visit the self-ruled island claimed by China, could lead
to heightened tensions between the US and Chinese governments.

“I think that Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will certainly
contribute to the deterioration of US-China relations,” said Philip
Thai, an associate professor of history and Asian studies at
Northeastern University.

Thai, the author of “China’s War on Smuggling: Law, Economic Life,
and the Making of the Modern State, 1842-1965,” said the breakdown
in US-China relations has been “years in the making,” citing
examples such as Donald Trump taking a call with Taiwan’s president
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after winning the 2016 election.

Graham Allison, a professor of government at Harvard University
who’s written widely on US-China relations, referenced reports that
White House officials had voiced opposition to Pelosi’s visit, which
Allison called “reckless” in an email.

“The Speaker’s refusal to listen to the advice of the US military,
the Biden Administration, and the Asia allies whom she is also
visiting is not just reckless: it is irresponsible,” wrote Allison,
whose books include “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape
Thucydides’s Trap?”

“For an analogy, think of the Archduke who insisted on going to
Sarajevo in June, 1914–and provided the spark that became World War
I,” Allison wrote, referring to Archduke Franz Ferdinand, who was
assassinated during his trip to Sarajevo.

Robert Ross, a Boston College political science professor who focuses
on Chinese security policy and US-China relations, said China will
respond to Pelosi’s visit by using economic and military tools at
their disposal.

“We can expect the Chinese to increase sanctions against Taiwan,
[and] to carry out military activity that might compel the US to
prepare for war just in case,” said Ross, who’s also a member of
the National Committee for US-China Relations. “There doesn’t seem
to be any upside [to Pelosi’s visit], but I think we’re all aware
of the potential downside.”

China had vowed to retaliate if Pelosi visited Taiwan, with
speculation centering on military exercises and possible incursions by
Chinese planes and ships into areas under Taiwanese control.

After Pelosi touched down in Taiwan on Tuesday, the Chinese government
announced it would conduct “a series of joint military operations
around Taiwan Island, and conduct joint air and sea exercises in the
sea and airspaces of the northern, southwestern, and southeastern
Taiwan Islands,” according to an English translation of a statement
from the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation
Army.

The statement said the military exercises are a “solemn deterrent
against the recent major escalation of the negative actions of the
United States on the Taiwan issue, and a serious warning to the
‘Taiwan independence’ forces seeking ‘independence.’”

But Frank Figliuzzi, a retired assistant FBI director and commentator,
on Tuesday framed Pelosi’s visit as a warning to China, rather than
the other way around.

“Make no mistake, this is a warning to China, and a likely result of
intel indicating China is moving closer to take Taiwan,” Figliuzzi
tweeted.

It’s also irresponsible, according to Joseph Fewsmith, a Boston
University professor of political science and international relations
who’s authored several books on China including “The Logic and
Limits of Political Reform in China.”

“I think that it is irresponsible for Speaker Pelosi to go to
Taiwan, especially at a time like this,” Fewsmith said via email.
“Relations with China have been very tense, and both sides should be
working to ease those tensions. Pelosi’s trip will certainly add to
the tensions.”

Pelosi defended the visit Tuesday in a statement, calling it a gesture
of support for Taiwan’s democracy.

“Our congressional delegation’s visit to Taiwan honors America’s
unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant Democracy,”
Pelosi said. “Our visit is part of our broader trip to the
Indo-Pacific — including Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan
— focused on mutual security, economic partnership and democratic
governance. ... America’s solidarity with the 23 million people of
Taiwan is more important today than ever, as the world faces a choice
between autocracy and democracy.”

Meanwhile Ryan Hass, a scholar on China at the Brookings Institution,
tweeted Tuesday that the Chinese government has swiftly responded to
Pelosi’s visit.

“Against the backdrop of @SpeakerPelosi
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several events in motion,” Hass wrote. “Proximately, Beijing
appears to have begun responding through economic measures against
Taiwan. There also are reports of cyber operations directed against
Taiwan.”

He said China’s reaction won’t be measurable in the moment but
rather an “accumulation of actions” over time.

“Beijing will seek to show [the Taiwanese] people that there are
risks and consequences for relying on US instead of working with
Beijing,” Hass tweeted. “If past is prologue, such efforts by
Beijing may help demonstrate to a domestic audience that PRC is
‘teaching Taiwan a lesson,’ but they likely will further sour
public opinion in [Taiwan] toward China.”

Hass said there’s also a “narrative battle” playing out between
Beijing and Washington over Pelosi’s visit.

“The PRC argument is that US is hollowing out its commitments, using
TW to try to control China, and stirring trouble; if there is
escalation, it’s America’s fault,” Hass tweeted, adding that
it’s a “good thing” that US and Chinese officials remain in
direct communication with one another.

He wrote that the odds “of uncontrolled escalation diminish when
both sides are able to have candid private conversations and clarify
the intentions of other side’s actions,” but he also conceded that
the future could be “bumpy” for the rival world powers.

“It will be important for officials to remain in direct contact, for
each side to exercise discipline, and focus on preserving peace and
stability in Taiwan Strait,” Hass tweeted. “Smarts, not flexes of
strength, will be needed to navigate this period.”

_Material from the Associated Press was used in this report._

Travis Andersen can be reached at [email protected]. Follow
him on Twitter @TAGlobe [[link removed]].

* Nancy Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan; US China Relations; Taiwan;
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