I've analyzed thousands of polls in my career, John. Knowing the facts and the math behind the numbers is critical to winning close races. 

It's how I helped win the White House for Bill Clinton, how I helped hold on to it for Barack Obama, and how I've helped elect senators in every corner of the country. 

I just personally reviewed this poll for Nevada's Senate race, and I have some thoughts.

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): 46%
Adam Laxalt (R): 47%

The math is actually pretty simple: In 2016, Catherine Cortez Masto defied the odds and won Nevada's Senate seat by just 2 percentage points. Right now, she's trailing her Trump-endorsed opponent by just a single point. 

There are exactly 100 days to go until Election Day, and if Catherine has a surge in resources, she can pull AHEAD and win once again. With a group of donors TRIPLE-MATCHING all gifts up to Catherine's $100,000 end-of-month goal, now is your best chance to help her win. Will you make a gift of $5 now (becomes $15) to keep Nevada and the Senate blue?

Some more simple math you should keep in mind, John: Mitch McConnell only needs to flip one – that’s right, ONE – seat to win back the Senate majority.

Unfortunately for Sen. Cortez Masto, whom CNN named the most vulnerable senator up for reelection, Republicans are banking on Nevada being that one seat to flip. 

But the math works in OUR favor, too. Mitch McConnell and his allies are spending an insane amount of resources in Nevada – $22 million on attack ads alone! – but if we can stop them from flipping their prized target seat, we can block a Republican Senate majority.

But it's going to take a grassroots movement that is 100% dedicated to helping Catherine pull off another win. So please, before this crucial end-of-month fundraising deadline, will you make a TRIPLE-MATCHED donation to help Catherine win and protect our Democratic Senate majority?

Together, we can win this. Thank you for your support at this crucial moment.

Paul Begala