Ukrainian artillerymen check their weapons and special equipment before going to the frontline in Kherson, Ukraine, on July 15, 2022. (Photo by Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

It has been five months since Russia invaded Ukraine, and two things are clear: Russia is not giving up (even though it has failed to meet its military objectives), and this war will be long and measured by years, not months, writes Hudson Senior Fellow Luke Coffey in his recent policy memo.

Coffey explains why the war matters for Americans and provides nine policy recommendations for how the United States and the West can prepare Ukraine for victory. Key insights are highlighted in excerpts below.

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Key Insights

1. A Victorious Ukraine Strengthens Taiwan

China is watching the war in Ukraine closely. Russia is China’s junior partner. A weakened or defeated Russia means a weaker China. Beijing is also watching how Western powers support Ukraine, so a strong and victorious Ukraine makes Taiwan stronger too. Some have suggested that the US should sacrifice its security interest in Ukraine to focus on the threat from China. The choice between security in Europe or security in the Indo-Pacific is a false dichotomy. In terms of US national interests, these two regions are intimately linked. 

2. European Instability Hurts the American Worker

The war has economic implications for Americans at home. If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spreads to other parts of the continent, the conflict would have greater implications for the US economy. The economies of Europe and North America account for approximately 45 percent of the global economy. Last year, the US and Europe were each other’s largest export market. Forty eight of the 50 states—including the Pacific Ocean states of California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Hawaii—exported more to Europe than to China in 2021. Year after year, the US and Europe are also each other’s top source of foreign direct investment. Europe’s security and stability, which Russia now threatens, brings untold benefits to the US economy and, by extension, the American worker. So what happens in Kyiv, Odesa, and Lviv could ultimately affect Kansas City, Orlando, and Louisville.

3. The War Could Cause Hunger and More Instability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

The MENA region relies heavily on wheat and other food stuffs from Ukraine and Russia. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the Russian navy has blockaded Ukrainian ports and halted critical exports of wheat and other food stuffs to the rest of the world. On numerous occasions in the past 50 years, spikes in food prices have led to instability, rioting, and revolution in the MENA region. The 1977 food riots in Egypt and the 2011 Arab Spring are two great examples. The rallying cry for protesters across much of the Arab world during the Arab Spring was “bread, freedom, and social justice.” If Russia continues its blockade, there is a genuine threat of hunger and instability in parts of the MENA region. This is not in America’s interest.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length. 

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