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After an initial wave of surprise and positive reactions to the unexpected climate bill debuted Wednesday night by Senators Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer, the country's attention has turned to whether or not Schumer can get the bill to President Biden's desk before the Senate breaks for an August recess.
First of all, the bill has to get through the referee of the Senate, known as the parliamentarian. That's because Schumer is hoping to pass the bill through a process known as reconciliation, which allows Democrats to bypass a Republican filibuster and pass legislation on a 50-50 vote (with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie). But reconciliation also requires that everything in the bill be budget-related, and Republican senators are apparently already preparing parliamentary challenges to individual parts of the act. The nonpartisan parliamentarian will go through and decide what can stay in before it heads to the full Senate for a vote.
Next, Schumer has to get every Democrat in the Senate on board—and physically onto the Senate floor—which could be challenging, given that a few members are out with COVID-19 and Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema has been almost entirely silent on the bill. Her office told reporters she's waiting to see what comes out of the parliamentarian process before she decides whether she'll support it. Since all Republican senators are expected to vote against the package, Sinema must vote yes for it to pass.
And of course, after passing the Senate, the bill has to go through the House, where progressive Democrats could find fault with the bill on grounds that it locks in fossil fuel development or doesn't go far enough to address climate change. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, perhaps the most well-known progressive Democrat in the House, has indicated she will likely support the package.
“I think it is an overwhelmingly positive development,” she said, adding the “progress on climate far outweighs some of the negatives.”
Finally, Manchin's support for the bill could also falter if anything happens to derail a "side deal" on permitting reform. The deal would apparently speed permitting for infrastructure on federal lands, including renewable and fossil fuel projects as well as transmission lines. While no details of that plan have been released, Manchin's vote on the climate bill is contingent on Congress passing it. So far, Democrats seem to be willing to pass some kind of reform to secure Manchin's vote on climate, but members like Rep. Raúl Grijalva, who chairs the House Natural Resources Committee, say they want details on the permitting bill before they commit to supporting it.
So what happens if the climate bill doesn't pass?
Evergreen Action chief of staff Lena Moffitt answers that question in a new episode of CWP's podcast, The Landscape. Moffitt discusses what President Biden can do through executive action to fight climate change, including a major overhaul of the public lands oil and gas leasing system. And even if the legislation does pass, Biden will still need to use his power to take more steps if he wants to reach his own goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52 percent by 2030.
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Methane is responsible for 25% of today’s global warming, and we can’t limit future warming to two degrees Celsius if we don’t drastically cut those emissions... We have the tools to cut methane in half and the faster we do that, the better off our climate and communities will be.”
