[1]

July 29, 2022

This month’s newsletter features updates to a table tracking the
capabilities of Iran’s missile arsenal and to a report estimating how
quickly Iran could enrich enough uranium to fuel a small nuclear arsenal.
The missile table includes new details gleaned from a December 2021
military exercise. The nuclear timetable update revises downward the
estimated time it would take Iran to enrich enough uranium for five
warheads, reflecting data published by the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) in May.

The newsletter also features profiles of Iranian research institutions
whose faculty have been involved in proliferation-related activity, as well
as news about the British Royal Navy’s seizure of Iranian missile
components en route to Yemen, the operation of a new cascade of IR-6
centrifuges at Fordow, and U.S. intelligence indicating that Iran is
preparing to export military drones to Russia. Documents from the Iran
Watch library include official statements from a U.N. Security Council
briefing on the Iran, new U.S. sanctions announcements, and recent
diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.

[2]View the newsletter in your browser and [3]subscribe to receive it in
your inbox.

PUBLICATIONS

[4]

The IRGC Aerospace Museum in Tehran. Image credit: [5]Fars News Agency.

Table | [6]Iran's Missile Arsenal

In March, U.S. Central Command’s General Kenneth McKenzie stated that Iran
possesses “over 3,000” ballistic missiles, which does not include the
country’s burgeoning land-attack cruise missile force. Iran has also made
substantial improvements over the past decade in the precision and accuracy
of its missiles, and has employed them in combat on multiple occasions
since 2017. This table sets forth what is publicly known, claimed, or
estimated about the capabilities of Iran's ballistic missiles, cruise
missiles, and space launch vehicles, including new details gleaned from a
December 2021 military exercise.

[7]SEE THE TABLE

[8]

Iran’s nuclear facility at Natanz. Image credit: Google, Image 2022 CNES /
Airbus

Report | [9]Iran's Nuclear Timetable: The Weapon Potential

Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium is now sufficient to fuel a small
nuclear arsenal. For this uranium to pose a nuclear weapon threat, however,
it would have to be processed further to weapon-grade, and the other
components of an operable weapon would have to be ready to receive the
processed uranium. This timetable estimates how quickly Iran could enrich
enough uranium for five implosion-type warheads, either overtly or at
secret sites. The potential is estimated as of mid-May 2022, the date of
inspection contained in the IAEA’s latest report.

[10]READ THE FULL REPORT

ENTITIES OF CONCERN

Faculty at Iranian universities conduct research relevant to weapons of
mass destruction, missiles, and drones, although they have only rarely been
[11]sanctioned by the United States and the European Union.

[12]University of Tehran

Faculty members have studied propulsion systems for UAVs and turbine-less
jet engines in collaboration with scientists from [13]Iran University of
Science and Technology, [14]Islamic Azad University, and [15]K. N. Toosi
University of Technology; in 2019, faculty reportedly collaborated with the
[16]Iran Space Research Center on dozens of projects, including a project
on propulsion.

[17]LEARN MORE

[18]Islamic Azad University

Faculty members have collaborated with Iranian government agencies to carry
out research relevant to Iran's nuclear and missile programs, including
research on liquid-propellant rocket engines; faculty members have obtained
HTPB, a substance controlled for its potential use in solid propellants for
missiles, from a supplier in China.

[19]LEARN MORE

[20]Malek Ashtar University

[21]Sanctioned by the United Nations for possible connections to Iran’s
military nuclear program; supports the research and development needs of
Iran's [22]Ministry of Defense Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL); a
subordinate entity has carried out studies that have applications in the
development of nuclear explosives.

[23]LEARN MORE

IN THE NEWS

[24]

Missile components seized by the HMS Montrose in early 2022. Image credit:
[25]UK Ministry of Defense.

[26]Russia Is Seeking Surveillance Drones from Iran, A Top Biden Aide Says
| New York Times

July 11, 2022: U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the United
States had information that the Iranian government is preparing to provide
Russia with up to several hundred drones for the war in Ukraine. The
planned transfer would include both surveillance and armed UAVs. Further,
Sullivan said, Iran is preparing to train Russian troops on how to operate
the weapons as soon as July. Sullivan did not know whether any drones had
already been transferred.

[27]Iran Enriches to 20% With New Centrifuges at Fortified Site |
Associated Press

July 10, 2022: Iran announced that it has begun enriching uranium up to 20
percent purity using advanced IR-6 centrifuges at its Fordow facility. The
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verified that Iran was using a
system of "modified sub-headers" for one cascade of these centrifuges, a
set-up that allows Iran to more quickly and easily switch between
enrichment levels.

[28]UK Warship Seizes Advanced Iranian Missiles Bound for Yemen |
Associated Press

July 7, 2022: The British government announced that the Royal Navy seized a
shipment of Iranian weapons in the Gulf of Oman on two occasions in January
and February 2022. The shipments included surface-to-air missiles and
engines for land-attack cruise missiles. The British navy linked the
engines to an Iranian-made cruise missile with a 1,000-kilometer range that
it said Houthi rebels in Yemen have used against Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates. Iran denied that it had shipped the weapons to Yemen.

FROM THE LIBRARY

The presidents of Russia and the United States each made diplomatic trips
to the Middle East, the latter to Riyadh and Jerusalem and the former to
Tehran.
* After a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime
Minister Yair Lapid, the two leaders issued a [29]joint declaration. The
United States reiterated its “commitment never to allow Iran to acquire a
nuclear weapon,” saying it is “prepared to use all elements of its national
power to ensure that outcome” - July 14.
* Following a stop in Saudi Arabia, President Biden [30]reaffirmed the
U.S. commitment to supporting Riyadh’s security and territorial defense -
July 15.
* Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iranian President Ebrahim
Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Tehran, after which he
[31]issued a statement expressing support for the preservation of the JCPOA
- July 19.

The U.S. Treasury and Commerce Departments took action against sanctions
evaders.
* The U.S. Treasury Department [32]announced sanctions targeting an
Iranian oil and petrochemical network - July 6.
* Sanctioned entities [33]included Jam Petrochemical Company, which has
exported petrochemical products to companies in East Asia and facilitated
the use of front bank accounts and companies in order to obfuscate the
shipment and sale - July 6.
* Separately, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an [34]order denying
export privileges for Joyce Marie Eliabachus until October 7, 2030. In
2020, Eliabachus was convicted of conspiring to supply aircraft components
to Iran - July 19.

On June 23, ahead of a U.N. Security Council briefing, the U.N.’s
facilitator for resolution 2231 transmitted her latest [35]six-month report
assessing the resolution’s implementation. Resolution 2231 endorsed the
2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
* The U.N. Secretary-General published his [36]accompanying report
evaluating the implementation of resolution 2231 over the first half of
2022 - June 23.
* Representatives from [37]China, [38]Iran, and [39]Russia issued
responses pointing to the United States’ 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear
agreement as the source of implementation issues - June 30.
* Statements by the [40]United States and the [41]United Kingdom, France,
and Germany highlighted Iran’s “nuclear escalation” and suggested that Iran
was responsible for preventing a restoration of the JCPOA - June 30.

Iran Watch is a website published by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control. The Wisconsin Project is a non-profit, non-partisan organization
that conducts research, advocacy, and public education aimed at inhibiting
strategic trade from contributing to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction.

Copyright © 2022 - Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control

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