We’ve compiled a set of expert briefings on the key issues facing our next PM

29 Jul 2022 | Full Fact's weekly news
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REPORT
We need a leadership contest based on evidence
From cost of living to the Ukraine conflict, the next Prime Minister will face a series of challenges when they enter 10 Downing Street in September.

As the Conservative leadership contest continues, it is important that the debate be substantive and based on evidence. UK in a Changing Europe and Full Fact have partnered to produce a series of evidence-led, research-based assessments ([link removed]) of the key issues confronting the country.

The briefings have been written by experts in their field with contributions from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, LSE, Health Foundation and others.

Our aim in putting together this collection ([link removed]) was not to tell people what to think but to provide information that will help them make up their own minds—as well as equip candidates, parliamentarians, and journalists with the best available evidence as the leadership contest continues.

Read more from us in the Times ([link removed])
FACT CHECK
Conservative leadership contest so far: fact checked ([link removed])

Another week, another TV debate analysed by the Full Fact team. The BBC’s debate focused largely on Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss’ plans for tax, the economy and dealing with the cost of living crisis

💷 Spending

Mr Sunak claimed that Ms Truss had promised £40 billion of “unfunded” tax cuts, and Ms Truss responded by saying this was “not true”. One tax advisory firm has estimated these plans will cost £40 billion, but other estimates do exist.

Most are above £30 billion, with the IFS saying that Ms Truss’s tax cuts alone would “cost more than £30bn – possibly considerably more”, depending on the precise details.

Ms Truss also used the debate to claim that “there is already headroom of approximately £30 billion in the budget”. The Office for Budget Responsibility did say that there was £30 billion of headroom against the fiscal targets in March. However, the rise in inflation since then may have affected this figure.

📉 Recession

Ms Truss went on to claim that the OECD had described Mr Sunak’s policies as “contractionary”, adding “that means it will lead to a recession.” It’s true that last month the OECD described the current overall fiscal policy of the UK government as “contractionary”.

Contractionary fiscal policy does slow economic growth, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that a country is heading towards a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

Later in the debate Ms Truss claimed that a recession had been “predicted,” but forecasts on this are mixed.

Other claims on tax, cost of living, and more ([link removed])
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FACT CHECK
No evidence monkeypox has anything to do with Covid or Covid vaccines ([link removed])

A blog (which regularly publishes misinformation about Covid), has falsely claimed that monkeypox is only circulating in countries where Pfizer’s Covid vaccine has been distributed.

The Medicines and Health Regulatory Agency confirmed to us that “there is no evidence to date of a causal relationship between COVID-19 vaccination and monkeypox.”

Monkeypox has been detected in 70 countries that haven’t historically had cases of the disease. While it’s true that the Pfizer vaccine has been distributed in all of them, there are only 15 countries in the entire world in which this vaccine hasn’t been distributed.

We have written other articles dealing with a number of false and misleading claims about the supposed links between monkeypox and Covid-19 vaccines.

Our latest (but not last) fact check on this ([link removed])
MORE FACT CHECKS
Also this week...
* Did the heatwave see London Fire Brigade’s busiest day since WWII? ([link removed])
* Study comparing side effects of Covid-19 and vaccines nothing to do with WHO ([link removed])
* No evidence Keir Starmer tried to block the prosecution of Muslim grooming gangs ([link removed])

Read our latest fact checks ([link removed])
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