July 22, 2022
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Unemployment continuing claims climbed 122,000 on a net basis to 1.4 million in a week as recession signals flash red everywhere
By Robert Romano
Unemployment insurance continuing claims increased by 122,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis from July 2 to July 9 to 1.45 million, the latest U.S. Department of Labor data shows, as multiple historical recession signals are flashing red.
The number comes as initial unemployment claims have continued ticking upward on both on a seasonally adjusted basis. Since mid-March, when weekly claims hit a low of 166,000, now they are up over 251,000.
When both of those numbers are simultaneously increasing — weekly claims and continuing claims — it is an indication that hiring by U.S. employers is stalling. As a result, more people wind up on continuing unemployment claims than leave them because they found a job.
To be sure, if you refer to the Labor Department’s Jolts Survey, from March to May, job openings have decreased by more than 600,000 to 11.3 million, another indication that labor markets have peaked or are about to. It looks like they already peaked, considering other recession-related data.
As unemployment continuing claims mount, eventually so too will the unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics begin increasing. How high it rises depends on whether the economy is in a recession, and if so, how severe it is.
On the broader economic front, it is hard to see just how economic growth will be able to outpace the current 9.1 percent consumer inflation and 11.3 percent producer inflationcurrently being measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As a sidenote, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which measures the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — second quarter release will be July 28 — uses a slightly different measure of inflation in calculating growth.
But suffice to say, when inflation exceeds nominal economic growth, the inflation-adjusted GDP that gets reported every quarter will be negative, as it was in the first quarter at negative 1.6 percent.
Now, in the second quarter, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow indicator is projecting that again shrink by another 1.6 percent.
The spread between 10-year and 2-year treasuries, another reliable recession indicator that has predicted almost every recession in modern economic history, has inverted three times this year already: July 5, on June 13 and on March 31. The July plunge has remained negative, with the spread reading -0.19 percent.
What this indicates is that there is more demand for 10-year treasuries than there is for 2-year treasuries, because financial institutions and central banks are betting there is more downside in the near term. Plus, at close to 3 percent interest rates on the 10-year, that might look relatively attractive in a year or so if and when a recession does strike, inflation calms (even if only briefly) and more investors flood into bonds in a flight to safety that usually accompanies an economic contraction.
To be certain, the relatively low interest rates versus inflation does not give me much hope that even a recession will be able to stop the current bout of price hikes. There is still a serious need to boost global food and energy production, or else supply issues could continue mounting after whatever current economic turmoil being experienced runs its course.
Finally, 315,000 jobs were lost in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey in June, the second month this year experiencing losses after 353,000 jobs were similarly lost in April. If we really are in a recession, expect those numbers to increase quite a bit more over the next year or so while the unemployment rate rises, especially with continuing claims starting to creep upward.
In a recession, labor markets are often the last thing to go south. It might not be just yet, but it looks like it is pretty darn close. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Jobless claims point to Biden recession
July 21, 2022, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement on the latest unemployment claims numbers:
“The U.S. Labor Department reported that the steady climb of initial unemployment claims continued last week to 251,000 newly unemployed up from 244,000 the week prior. Since April 2022, the number of new weekly unemployment claims has risen by 85,000 from 166,000 to 251,000. The chart doesn’t lie. From July 2 to July 9, the number of Americans on unemployment insurance has increased on a net basis by a non-seasonally adjusted 122,000 to 1.45 million. President Joe Biden’s sole claim to economic success has been our nation’s low unemployment rate, but the economic pressures put onto employers by the inflation caused Biden’s war on oil, natural gas and food production is putting an end to this one bright spot.
“The first week of July signaled the beginning of the end of the jobs economy, and unfortunately, today’s report does nothing to change this forecast as our nation slides into a Biden policy induced recession.”
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2022/07/jobless-claims-point-to-biden-recession/
Reince Priebus: Biden’s oil crisis fuels national discontent with president's agenda
By Reince Priebus
It’s no secret: the United States is on precarious footing right now. A recent Monmouth poll states that 88% of Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track. Pair that with 58% disapproval for the President, and we are facing serious long-term challenges for the faith of the American people in our system of government. The last thing this White House needs is a scandal.
But a scandal might just be what they have brought upon themselves.
A recent report showed that nearly 1 million barrels of oil released from our nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves was sold to a Chinese state-owned energy conglomerate, Sinopec. A conglomerate that has ties to the President’s son, Hunter Biden, through an investment firm the younger Biden helped cofound. The firm held a $1.7 billion stake in Sinopec Marketing, raising more questions about not only why these barrels earmarked for use in a national emergency were going overseas, but also about who is benefiting from these sales.
The media's so-called fact-checkers are defending Biden, saying Trump also sold oil to China in 2017. But when he did it, gas was $2 cheaper a gallon and his son wasn't tangled up in a Chinese business scandal.
Even if Americans could forget the questionable family dealings, they are unhappy about the path President Biden has chosen to take energy policy. A January Gallup poll showed that nearly 3 in 4 Americans disapproved of the Biden energy policies, and that was conducted before the country’s national average price per gallon of gas topped $5 for the first time in our history.
President Joe Biden boldly went on national television to tell the nation he would be releasing these barrels of oil to address the cost concerns here at home. Instead, we’ve seen oil go everywhere from India to China to the Netherlands with little impact on gas prices here at home.
Then he made a big show about going to Saudi Arabia to beg for oil even though he refuses to allow for American production, canceling the Keystone Pipeline and ending new drilling in the beginning of his presidency.
This president has forgotten that he is president of the United States, not of the rest of the planet. Yes, he is the leader of the free world, but he is responsible for standing up for the American people, helping make lives better here. Instead, he has passed the buck on the inflation families have been dealing with since his multi-trillion-dollar relief package was packed.
Check the record. First, the Biden administration said that inflation is transitory, then the price increases were only temporary and would come back down, then they were the result of COVID-19 and supply chain shortages, then he tried gaslighting Americans, saying it was Russian President Vladimir Putin’s gas price hike.
This is not leadership befitting the leader of the free world. Biden needs to take a hard look at the situation the nation finds ourselves in: families are struggling to make ends meet, and the distrust in our system of government is at a dangerous level. The Biden agenda is, in a word, failing. Americans have now learned first-hand what big government spending and reliance on foreign energy means for their daily lives — Soviet-style empty shelves and prices we can’t afford.
If Biden wants to keep his job, he needs to end his pursuit of this radical left-wing agenda and start making compromises to ease the pain of Americans across the country.
Mr. President, you just said elections matter. Well, the American people are watching. Time to step up to the plate. November isn’t very far away.
To view online: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/biden-oil-crisis-fuels-national-discontent-president-agenda