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Dear Supporter,



Our lastest Taxpayers' Union Curia poll has just been released. We summarise the results at the end of this email – and what would happen if this poll was reflected in an election and we ended up with a hung Parliament.



More taxpayer funding for the media: Will this affect election coverage?







The Government has doled out another $4 million to media from the 'Public Interest' Journalism Fund this week.



The latest announcement includes $1.2 million for Allied Press, $374,245 for iwi news, $160,000 for The Spinoff to write about the 2022 local body elections and $39,380 to Metro Media Group to write a four-part series on how the arts get funded, and $800,000 for a programme introducing young people to journalism as a "viable career".



Check our website for the full list of funding recipients from the PIJF. <[link removed]>



In his last blog post for the Taxpayers' Union, Louis explained how this funding damages media independence, no matter how much the journalists deny it:



Significant funds have been allocated for struggling outlets to train and employ new journalists. But with the $55 million soon set to run dry, the Government will face immense pressure from the media to top up the funding, lest they have to lay off their new young journos.



New Zealand media bosses and editors are protective of and loyal to their staff, and financially invested in keeping their outlets afloat. This presents an obvious conflict of interest in next year's general election campaign: media figures have a personal and financial interest in electing a Government that will protect their funding. New Zealanders will rightly view their election coverage with this in mind.





Click here to read the full piece. <[link removed]>



Only a week left to have your say on Three Waters



<[link removed]>



Time flies: it's now just one week until Parliament stops accepting written submissions on the Water Services Entities Bill (a.k.a Three Waters).



If you haven't already made a submission, click here to use our tool. <[link removed]>



Alternatively, you can spend a bit more time making a submission through Parliament's webpage <[link removed]>.



Already, 16,000 New Zealanders have made submissions through our website. That's a stunning effort. And thousands of you have requested to have your submission heard orally – this is crucial to delaying the legislation, and we know that each day the Three Waters debate drags on, the more the Government suffers politically.



Waiting an Adernity: When will taxpayers see housing at Ihumātao?







Eighteen months after the Government forked out $30 million in housing funds to purchase the paddocks of Ihumātao, there is still no sign of progress towards construction.



In fact, the group of iwi and government representatives meant to make decisions about the land have only had one meeting <[link removed]> with Māori Development Minister Willie Jackson, who has given them another three and a half years to just to stump up a plan for housing on the land.



The ACT Party has described <[link removed]> the amount of time it's taking to get houses build at Ihumatao as an 'Ardernity' – a label that could just as easily be applied to the wait for 100,000 KiwiBuild homes, or progress on Auckland light rail...



New Taxpayers' Union Chair



We're delighted to have Laurence Kubiak appointed as the new Chair of the Taxpayers’ Union Board.



Laurence is a high tech entrepreneur, a recent Chair of the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra, and former CEO of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.



Here's what he told media:



I’m delighted to have been asked to chair New Zealand’s leading voice for government transparency and fiscal prudence.



The Union stands for public spending that is efficient, transparent, and subject to appropriate accountability: values that are the heart of any robust system of governance. The Taxpayers’ Union gives a public voice to these values, a voice that will become stronger and even more important as we chart our course through these unsettled times.



I'd like to thank Casey Costello, our Acting Chair since the launch of our ‘Stop Three Waters’ campaign late last year. Anyone who saw her speech against co-governance <[link removed]> at our town hall event in Auckland will know she's a star.



New poll: Labour/National-blocks neck and neck



Our latest Taxpayers' Union Curia Poll <[link removed]> was released just a few moments ago. 



While there are no significant shifts in support for the major parties, a boost for the Māori Party means that this month's result would likely translate to a tie on election day.







National and ACT win 60 seats, Labour and the Greens win 55, and the Māori Party nets 5 seats.



<[link removed]>You can read more on the poll's findings on our website. <[link removed]> But we better answer the obvious question...



Hung Parliament – What happens in a tie?



It’s election night 2023. The centre-left bloc of Labour and the Greens, joined by the Māori Party, has won 60 seats. National and ACT have also won 60 seats. In a 120-seat Parliament, neither side has the majority required to form a government. What happens?



Josh Van Veen (a member of the Taxpayers' Union team and a part-time political historian) lays out potential scenarios:



Scenario 1: Labour and National could put aside their ideological differences to form a ‘grand coalition’. There is precedent. In Germany, under Chancellor Angela Merkel, the centre-right Christian Democrats governed with the centre-left Social Democrats on three separate occasions. Back home, we can see parallels with the United-Reform Coalition that governed New Zealand between 1931 and 1935. The Coalition eventually led to the formation of the modern National Party. What about a NatLab Government?



If this seems far-fetched, remember that Jacinda Ardern once personally picked Christopher Luxon to chair her business advisory council!



Scenario 2: Labour and National could agree that the party with the most seats should govern. This would mean that the ‘loser’ abstains on confidence and supply while otherwise fulfilling the duties of Opposition. But such an arrangement would leave a "lame duck" Government unable to pass any laws without consent from the Opposition. On the other hand, New Zealanders might welcome this kind of consensual politics as a positive and constructive innovation.



Scenario 3: To make Scenario 2 work for the full three-year term, Labour and National could agree to govern on a ‘rotational’ basis. Christopher Luxon would serve 18 months as prime minister before handing back power to Jacinda Ardern (or another Labour leader) to see out the Parliamentary term. The arrangement would require both parties make significant policy concessions and perhaps sign up to a joint legislation programme. Scenario 3 is a grand coalition in all but name.



Scenario 4: Of course, National could dispense with Labour and attempt to win over the Māori Party. This would likely see National abandon its stance on co-governance and might complicate relations with ACT. But if he pulled it off, Christopher Luxon could go down in history as our wokest prime minister – changing the country’s name and perhaps establishing a separate Māori parliament or upper house.



Scenario 5: If the first four options are ruled out that leaves only one alternative: a new election. This scenario regularly plays our in Israel, where four general elections were held between 2019 and 2021. With Jacinda Ardern cast in the role of Benjamin Netanyahu, she would remain Prime Minister through the new election. And so on. While it could be the tidiest option, it is the most expensive.  In 2020, it cost $160 million to run the election (though this included two referenda).



Re-doing an entire election might sound like banana republic stuff, but frankly it seems more realistic than the alternatives.



Thank you for your support,





Jordan Williams

Executive Director

New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. 



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Media coverage:



Timaru Herald  South Canterbury mayors urge people to have their say on Three Waters reforms <[link removed]>



Waikato Herald  Three Waters Reform: Waipā mayor Jim Mylchreest says it's time to speak up and share your thoughts <[link removed]>



Politik  Everybody is worried about Groundswell <[link removed]>



Hawke's Bay Today  Hawke's Bay rates issues highlighted in annual increases <[link removed]>



Homepaddock  7 questions on 3 waters <[link removed]>



StuffBeware of fish-hooks in free trade deals <[link removed]>



1 News  NZ Maori Council further distances itself from Matthew Tukaki <[link removed]>



Southland Times  Three Waters advocacy group to front Invercargill City Council <[link removed]>



Rotorua Daily Post  Three Waters Rotorua protest: 120 turn out to oppose ‘loss of local control’ <[link removed]>



SunLive  WATCH: Three Waters: NZ’s hot topic <[link removed]>



SunLive  Three waters roadshow stopping in Tauranga <[link removed]>



Stuff  Polls diverge on voter direction as left and right blocs neck and neck <[link removed]>



The Working Group  The Working Group Podcast with Jordan Williams, Maria Slade and Brooke van Velden  <[link removed]>



The Daily Blog  Winners & Losers in latest Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll: NZ Political Spectrum is splintering <[link removed]>



Stuff  The Ardern Government is in a death spiral with no hope … or is it?  <[link removed]>



Marlborough Midweek  Stop Three Waters turnout ‘amazing’  <[link removed]>



Stuff  Turnout draws praise at Stop Three Waters roadshow in Blenheim <[link removed]>



RNZ  Auckland councillor appalled at national cycleway project blowouts <[link removed]>



Dominion Post  Contract of NZSO board chairperson not renewed after Taxpayers’ Union appointment <[link removed]>



Offsetting Behaviour  Thou shalt not suffer a conservative on your Board <[link removed]>



Timaru Herald  Timaru stop for five-week nationwide roadshow rallying opposition to water reforms <[link removed]>



Otago Daily Times  Strongest turnout yet at latest Three Waters roadshow meeting <[link removed]>



Otago Daily Times  Three Waters plan ‘undemocratic’ <[link removed]>



Otago Daily Times  Hundreds at 3 Waters reforms protest meeting <[link removed]>



SunLive  Three Waters protest to oppose “loss of control” <[link removed]>



Oamaru Mail  Lower rates with Three Waters  <[link removed]>



Otago Daily Times  Three Waters meeting packed <[link removed]>



RNZ  Political commentators: Brigitte Morten and Lamia Imam <[link removed]>



The Platform NZ  Sean Plunket speaks with former New Zealand broadcaster Peter Williams <[link removed]>



Stuff  Fired up crowd heckle Gore’s mayor at Groundswell’s 3 Waters meeting <[link removed]>



RNZ  Groundswell, Taxpayers’ Union roadshow in Gore <[link removed]>







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New Zealand Taxpayers' Union Inc. - 117 Lambton Quay, Level 4, Wellington 6011, New Zealand

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