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Dear Friends,
Over the past month we’ve been arguing that publicly available data suggested we were looking at a competitive not a wave election.
For this week’s analysis we averaged the Congressional Generic results of 11 independent polls taken since Roe ended on June 24th (see below). They come in at 44.4% Dem, 42.2% GOP, +2.2 Dem. That’s a 3-5 point shift from where the election was a month ago. “Poll Shows Tight Race for Congress” is the New York Times headline of the new NYT/Siena poll released this morning whose findings closely track our own.
We’ve put together our electoral work over the past month into a 20 minute data-filled presentation, “A New, Bluer Election.” You can watch it here.
Our current toplines on the 2022 election:
The election has moved 3-5 pts towards the Democrats, GOP brand has taken big hit
The anti-MAGA majority has been awakened
The Senate is now leaning Dem
The landscape is likely to get worse for GOP
We are pleased elements of this work have been cited in new articles by John Harwood on the CNN site, Greg Sargent in the Washington Post, Peter Nicholas on the NBC News site, Susan Milligan in US News, Nicholas Riccardi in the AP, Eleanor Clift in The Daily Beast, John Skolnick in Salon, AB Stoddard in The xxxxxx and Peter Weber in The Week. Simon has done two in-depth discussions of our electoral thesis with Matt Lewis on his podcast and with Ian Masters for his radio show/podcast. Joe Trippi discusses our analysis in his newest That Trippi Show podcast and we appreciate this shoutout from DNC Chair Jaime Harrison!
A new front page Washington Post story on the 2022 election by Michael Scherer, Coby Itkowitz and Josh Dawsey features this quote from Simon: “The question is, are there forces in the election more powerful than the disappointment in Biden?” asked Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist. “The answer is yes, and that is opposition and fear for MAGA, which is the thing that has driven the last two elections.” Ron Brownstein also gives our big argument serious consideration in a new and comprehensive CNN analysis.
On the economy and inflation, it has to be noted that here too things are going through significant change. Gas prices have dropped 40 cents in the past month and are dropping now a penny or two every day. This means that the huge psychological and economic effects of rising prices will certainly ease in the coming months. It gives the Democrats an opening to broaden out the economic conversation to include their achievements – very strong recovery, big job gains, record new businesses formed, historically low uninsured/unemployment rates, infrastructure investments, etc. And it will create more room for Democratic candidates to make the indictment of their opponents as too extreme, too MAGA. As we’ve been saying, opposition to MAGA has been the driving force of the last two elections, and with mass shootings, the end of Roe and fanatical abortion restrictions, a radicalized Supreme Court, extremist/terrible candidates, an unfolding criminal conspiracy involving dozens of top Republican officials to overturn an election it is now likely to be the most powerful force in this election as well. When the Republicans chose to run towards a politics the country had just rejected in record numbers twice, the GOP made the political physics of this election different from a traditional midterm. The Senate today leans Democratic and Democrats are likely to outperform expectations in the House now. Will it be enough for Democrats to keep the House? We will see.
The 11 Independent Polls Rated A/B from 538, Democrat/Republican
NYT/Siena 41-40
Politico/Morn Cons 46-42
Reuters/Ipsos 34-35
YouGov/Economist 43-40
Big Village 47-42
Harvard/Harris 50-50
Emerson 43-46
YouGov/Yahoo 45-38
Monmouth 46-48
Politico/Morn Cons 45-42
NPR/Marist 48-41
For the purposes of this analysis, we do not include 3 partisan Republican polls, which are not independent polls and which, incredibly, show large GOP leads. It is our guess that GOP pollsters, even those well intentioned, will struggle for a while to understand the very significant changes happening inside the Democratic electorate. The likely explanation for how these polls could be 9-10 points off from 11 highly rated 538 polls is that they are holding on to a pre-Roe likely voter screen which has lower participation rates for Democrats. We know from months of polling that ending Roe would significantly change voter intensity inside the Democratic electorate, and failure to account for and understand these changes by a pro-life party which has far fewer women and young people in its coalition is not something that should surprise anyone. Republican after Republican commentator has said these last few weeks changes nothing. They are clearly wrong, and these polls are also clearly wrong. It is a new, bluer election.
- The NDN Team
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