It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.   

Photo by Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA
CONGRESS IS BACK FROM A TWO-WEEK BREAK. WHAT’S MOST PRESSING ON THE AGENDA?
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Vying for attention right now are a host of political moments with historic importance: abortion laws changing nearly every day, Jan. 6th hearings nearly every week, and now the midterm election season in full swing.

But let us recommend you keep your gaze – for a few weeks at least – also fixed on the U.S. Senate. In that chamber, the next three weeks will be pivotal for several key issues, ranging from health care to climate. And also critical for both Republicans and Democrats’ long term strategies.

In a nutshell: Some items on the Biden agenda are facing some do-or-die weeks here. Here are a few things to watch out for:.

The effort to pass a budget reconciliation bill

Talking with sources in and out of the Capitol the past two weeks, White House correspondent Laura Barrón-López and I have confirmed some progress was made among Democrats in crafting a reconciliation measure. It would be a slimmed-down version of Build Back Better that could include some health care and climate provisions. All of this centers around negotiations between Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. See below.
* Medicare drug negotiating: Sources confirmed to me that Senate Democrats have submitted a Medicare drug price negotiating bill to the Senate parliamentarian to see if it will clear her reconciliation muster.
* Medicare solvency: The next idea Senate Democrats may float to the parliamentarian will be a version of extending Medicare solvency by closing a loophole and raising taxes for the wealthy. Manchin loves anything that increases solvency, in case you have not noticed ([link removed]) . This is a win-win idea for Democrats, because Manchin is on board and it could force Republicans to vote against extending Medicare.
* Affordable Care Act subsidies: This is a fast rising issue. Some significant ACA subsidies are set to expire at the end of the year. Details are still sticky for how long to extend them and by how much – and whether this will make the final draft for a reconciliation bill. Key decision maker Manchin has been cool to this idea ([link removed]) in public, too.
* However, McConnell threatens to thwart another bill if Democrats pursue reconciliation. Let me sub-bullet here. It’s a little complicated. I promise to keep it simple.
+ Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell is setting up a classic chess match over a potential reconciliation bill, threatening to block the China competitiveness bill (alternately shorthanded as “USICA" or “Competes”) if Democrats push reconciliation. He did that in this June 30 tweet ([link removed]) .
+ But he is also threatening all bipartisan bills, including the insulin pricing bill ([link removed]) from Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. He and this tactic are behind an ask from Finance Committee Republicans to slow down the Collins-Shaheen deal, asking to hold hearings, etc. Technically, that is regular procedure, but it is not how this Senate has operated on bipartisan deals.
+ The gamesmanship here will likely be a major theme in the coming weeks. Both sides think they are on solid ground. Democrats think they have a win-win. Either they get reconciliation and USICA by McConnell backing down OR they can say the Republicans blocked a bill to help the U.S. compete with China. Republicans think Americans are not paying attention to that kind of argument and that they can make the reconciliation bill look overtly partisan. Democrats counter that saving Medicare is something that helps their column.
+ There is also a chance the House attempts to pass the Senate-only USICA bill and ends this battle. BUT the House does not like that version ([link removed]) . House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been slow on the issue all year as a result; it’s too conservative for them.
+ What we know: At this point, we should not expect any major votes on these issues in the next week. That includes the insulin bill. The two sides will gather and figure out strategy. But two weeks from now could be very interesting.
+ The truth is Democrats need to pin down their full reconciliation package this week, or the next at the latest, in order to get on a breathable schedule. So there is a lot to watch.
+ As always, all of this is subject to change with little notice.

Abortion
* There is a quickly mounting pile of bills and ideas for codifying Roe or parts of Roe. None of these is likely to pass ([link removed]) .
* There may be headlines this week about which senators support a carve-out ([link removed]) from the filibuster on abortion. The Senate will be back for the first time since the ruling came down.

Electoral Count Act Reform
* The Electoral Count Act is a law that governs the way Congress counts and certifies Electoral College votes during a presidential election. The bipartisan group is still debating whether to introduce their bill soon to reform the act or wait until closer to the election.
* They want to stay out of the McConnell-Schumer duel, so it feels like this still is more likely to be in final voting mode after the election, as we’ve reported ([link removed]) .

AN “UNHINGED” MEETING, AN INFLAMMATORY TWEET AND A WARNING
By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

The seventh Jan. 6 hearing today culminated in a pair of witnesses ([link removed]) – a former Oath Keeper and a former Trump-supporting rioter who pleaded guilty last month to entering the U.S. Capitol – telling the House committee their fears for future elections should Donald Trump run again.

But the first half of today’s hearing was devoted to illustrating how the former president turned away from advisers who told him – repeatedly ([link removed]) – that there was no evidence to support his voter fraud and stolen election claims.

Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., said Trump “cannot escape accountability” ([link removed]) for the events leading up to the insurrection, setting the tone for the hearing in her opening remarks.

“President Trump is a 76-year-old man. He is not an impressionable child. Just like everyone else in our country, he is responsible for his own actions and his own choices,” the senator said, adding that Trump had access to detailed information that the election was not stolen.

“No rational or sane man in his position could disregard that information and reach the opposite conclusion.”

Trump aides describe an “unhinged” meeting
[link removed]
Through taped testimony, multiple aides were heard describing a tense Dec. 18, 2020, meeting ([link removed]) at the White House between Trump and a group of outside advisors who told the president to seize voting machines and to install a special counsel to overturn the 2020 election outcome. The meeting centered around Sidney Powell, a member of Trump’s legal team who pushed claims of voter fraud that were roundly debunked.

Aides said the meeting in the Oval Office lasted hours, was “unhinged” and grew contentious, especially when White House lawyers got involved. Then-White House counsel Pat Cipollone, who provided testimony ([link removed]) to the committee last week, said he didn’t think the group of outside advisers, which included former national security adviser Michael Flynn and former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne, were giving Trump “good advice.”

Derek Lyons, former White House staff secretary, said in recorded testimony that the meeting, which lasted until past midnight, was chaotic with people shouting and hurling insults at each other.

Two tweets: One a “call to action.” One never sent.
[link removed]
At 1:42 a.m. on Dec. 19, Trump sent an inflammatory tweet ([link removed]) on his preferred social media platform: “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th,” he wrote. “Be there, will be wild!”

Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy said the tweet “served as a call to action and in some cases as a call to arms” for his supporters – far-right extremist groups among them – to come to Washington, D.C. The committee focused on how the tweet led to the Capitol violence, supported by witness Stephen Ayres, who said he traveled to D.C. on Jan. 6 because of Trump. He said he also left the Capitol grounds after Trump tweeted hours later for supporters to do so.

“Basically we were just following what the president said,” Ayres told the committee ([link removed]) .

The committee also revealed an unsent tweet ([link removed]) from Trump. They showed a draft tweet from the former president that sought to tell supporters to go to D.C.on Jan. 6. It read: “Please arrive early, massive crowds expected. March to the Capitol after. Stop the Steal!” The tweet was undated.

A warning from a former Oath Keeper
[link removed]

The second, in-person witness at today’s hearing was Jason Van Tatenhove ([link removed]) , a former spokesperson for a far-right militia group known as the Oath Keepers.

"They may not like to call themselves a militia, but they are,” Van Tatenhove said of the Oath Keepers. “They're a violent militia.”

Members of the Oath Keepers, and another far right group known as the Proud Boys, have been among those who have been charged with seditious conspiracy ([link removed]) for the Jan. 6 attack.

Van Tatenhove, who provided insight into the group he left years ago, warned that “we need to quit mincing words and just talk about truths, and what it was going to be was an armed revolution.”

“This could have been the spark that started a new civil war and no one would have won there,” he said of the insurrection.

Van Tatenhove added: “I do fear for this next election cycle because who knows what that might bring? If a president that's willing to try to instill and encourage to whip up a civil war amongst his followers, using lies and deceit and snake oil – regardless of the human impact – what else is he going to do if he gets elected again? All bets are off at that point.”

When is the next hearing?

The next Jan. 6 hearing is expected to happen a week from Thursday, in prime time. And, for now, it’s expected to be the last in this series of hearings. That said, as a word of caution, the committee has said that new witnesses and material have continued to come forward.

For the latest and greatest on the Jan. 6 hearing schedule and who’s expected to testify, check out this page ([link removed]) . We’re updating that story as soon as we learn more.
#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Ian Couzens, @iancouzenz ([link removed])
Associate Producer, Politics

In 1857, the House of Representatives moved to a larger chamber within the U.S. Capitol. The vacant space later became what we know today as Statuary Hall, which houses many statues and busts of figures from American history.

On Tuesday, a new statue of civil rights leader Mary McLeod Bethune will be unveiled ([link removed]) to replace the one of Confederate General Edmund Kirby Smith. It’s a historic day because Bethune will be the first Black person to have a statue in the hall.

Our question: Who proposed the idea of making the old chamber into a hall for statues, and what year was it signed into law?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: In 1776, the Continental Congress ordered Philadelphia printer John Dunlap to produce copies of the newly written Declaration of Independence, so that it could be posted throughout the 13 colonies.

About how many were originally printed?

The answer: Around 200 ([link removed]) .

Congratulations to our winners: Barry Weinstein and Pamela Hendricks!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
[link removed]
[link removed]

============================================================
Copyright © 2022 NEWSHOUR LLC, All rights reserved.

Our mailing address is:
3620 South 27th Street
Arlington, VA 22206

** unsubscribe from this list ([link removed])
** update subscription preferences ([link removed])