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Dear Friends,
With all that is going on we've decided to offer two more pop-up political/polling briefings this week – tomorrow Wednesday July 6th at 4pm ET and Friday, July 8th at 1230pm ET. In each briefing I will go over the last few weeks of polling which show a changing and far more competitive national political landscape and meaningful movement towards the Democrats. I will also be offering some thoughts on the radical and illiberal GOP that has been on display of late, and what the center-left needs to do about it all.
To prep for the briefing do read this a new analysis we released this morning (below), and a companion thread with a bit more up to date data.
Register for Wed, July 6th at 4pm ET
Register for Fri, July 8th at 1230pm ET
Feel free to invite friends and colleagues. The more the merrier. Hope you have a restful 4th and looking forward to catching you next week.
Best, S
Notes on A Changing National Political Landscape – These notes build on a lengthy political analysis we released last week. Our bottom line take is that a combination of new developments – mass shootings, end of Roe, terrible GOP candidates, the growing understanding of the gravity of Jan 6th – has fundamentally altered the national political landscape in ways that will make it far harder for Republicans to be successful this year. We think what we are seeing now in the data is a competitive not a wave election; that if the election were held today the Senate would stay Democratic, with a reasonable chance - due to clear GOP underperformance in PA and WI and potentially elsewhere - of Democrats picking up 1-2 Senate seats; that the things driving renewed fears of MAGA – gun violence, abortion restrictions, illiberalism/criminality/attack on our democracy – will likely become more powerful and present in the coming months, further weakening Republican chances.
New post-Roe Future Majority polls in the 4 competitive Dem held Senate seats show Dems up – AZ + 7.5 (average), NH +9, NV +3, GA +4. FM’s new research and others who track voter intensity are seeing significant increases on the Democratic side. See this from Morning Consult - Democratic Voters’ Enthusiasm for Midterms Spikes in Wake of Supreme Court’s Abortion Ruling. The average of new Congressional Generic polls taken since Roe ended have Democrats in positive territory, perhaps by as much as 1.5-2pts. It has been net negative for Dems for months. In virtually every public poll taken over the past month Democrats are in a stronger position than conventional wisdom holds. It’s far more likely to find GOP underperformance in current polling than overperformance. And we don’t really know the effect of a persistent deflation of Trump on GOP turnout this fall. It could be significant.
The bottom line - it would be reasonable to assume the election has shifted 3-5 towards the Democrats in recent weeks, and that it is a permanent shift, not a bump.
It's a new election. And as it was in 2018 and 2020, the ugliness of MAGA and today’s GOP is likely to be the single most powerful electoral driver, as it should be. For the GOP’s radicalization is the most important issue in American politics today, with nothing else even close. If the big question of 2022 was whether the anti-MAGA majority which showed up in record numbers and gave Dems a 6.5 point margin in the last two elections would show up again the answer to that today is that it is far more likely that it will.
One thing to watch – it is likely that GOP pollsters who spend less time with the Democratic electorate will be slower to see an awakened Democratic coalition and a changed election. Everyone’s turnout models will have to change now, and because many pollsters will be slow to do so polling is likely to be all over the place in the next few weeks, with many Republican pollsters continuing to poll electorates which are no longer there.
Best, S
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