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NATO continues to be highly relevant, at least as a regional alliance with some engagement in parts of the Middle East. Certainly, it is the unmatched source of stability and security confidence in Europe. Further, though Trump and some other American NATO-doubters are unwilling to acknowledge it, firm U.S. commitment to the Alliance buys America a huge amount of influence in Europe, politically, economically, and for the U.S. private sector. Trump’s ambivalence on NATO has not made America great again; it has weakened a precious national, self-interested asset.
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While protesters in the aftermath of the 2009 elections were predominantly the urban middle classes, the base of recent protesters were mostly the lower-income classes and the unemployed youth living on the margins of cities. This is very dangerous for the Iranian establishment, as the latter have nothing to lose and no prospects of improving their lives in terms of employment and welfare.
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The bad effects of corruption in high places in both Israel and the United States include compromising the national security interests of each country. This can include waste from letting personal financial interests interfere in military procurement decisions. It can include weakening order and discipline in the armed services by letting politics interfere in the military justice system.
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To be sure, Netanyahu is a criminal. But in today’s Israel he can’t be found guilty of his most serious crimes – treason, incitement, destroying peace, hate crimes, and war crimes. Instead, he will be asked only to answer for his narcissistic appetites and corruption.
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To prevent a nuclear crisis from materializing, Europe needs to step in and deliver Macron’s credit lines to Iran as a way of keeping it within the JCPOA. Washington’s reaction to the protests in Iran leaves no space for doubts: there is simply no time left for Europe to wait for U.S. approval of its initiatives on Iran. Macron’s plan should be implemented without any further delay.
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Some analysts in Iran believe that one of the most important points for Rouhani in holding a referendum is negotiations with the U.S.—an issue strongly opposed by hardliners. Identifying moderates such as Rouhani and Zarif with hardliners in Iran as unitary, as mentioned by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is a mistake. The U.S. should see Iran as it is—a country with fundamental differences in facing the West among its leaders and population alike.
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It is disturbing not only that some politicians make or tolerate tawdry attacks but that such attacks have a constituency. The existence of that constituency is due partly to the propagation of falsehoods that much of the American population, with exposure to limited and biased sources of information, comes to believe. It also is due to the tribalization of politics having gone so far on one part of the American political spectrum that for a substantial portion of the American population, primary devotion and loyalty is not to the country but to a party. No amount of flag-waving or explicit appeals to nationalism will cover up that sad fact.
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Tyranny breeds hostility in core and periphery alike, but effective expressions of resistance require coordinated action between the two elements. The middle class’s ability to initiate revolution without joining a rural coalition is limited by the regime’s tight grip over the center and a critical mass of urban elites closely tethered to it. Meanwhile, structural imbalances confine the scope of provincial protest movements until they are able to recruit allies in the center. The lesson for dissidents in either sphere is that they can increase their odds of success by collaborating with their natural partners in the opposite sector.
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Since the conflict began in 2015, the Yemeni government has failed to find a political or military solution and the ensuing humanitarian crisis has complicated this quagmire. Meanwhile, it is at loggerheads with the southern separatists, who recently signed a Saudi-sponsored power-sharing deal in Riyadh. Any Saudi-Houthi talks will address the tactical concerns of both sides. Instead, all parties to the conflict should engage in unconditional serious peace talks and lay the groundwork for a lasting and comprehensive solution.
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Over the past four decades, the Revolutionary Guards has evolved from a military organization into an economic conglomerate. As Iran’s private sector weakens and the public’s view of the IRGC softens, their influence will widen. The current policies of the Trump administration have solidified this reality by fatally discrediting moderate forces inside Iran and strengthening the IRGC’s grip on Iran’s economy, exacerbating the country’s economic malaise for years to come.
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