BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

‘AS LONG AS IT TAKES’: As President Joe Biden meets with leaders of the Group of Seven in Germany today, the White House says the world’s leading democracies will announce “significant new sanctions” against Russia, along with an “unprecedented, long-term security commitment to providing Ukraine with financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support as long as it takes.”

“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin has been counting on, from the beginning, that somehow NATO would — and the G-7 would — splinter. But we haven’t, and we’re not going to,” Biden said before meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “We can’t let this aggression take the form it has and get away with it.”

In a background call with reporters this morning, a senior administration official said the new sanctions may include a global price cap on Russian oil exports, a plan that is still under discussion. “The goal here is to starve Russia — starve Putin of his main source of cash and force down the price of Russian oil to help blunt the impact of Putin’s war at the pump.”

Other measures will attempt to further restrict Russia’s access to defense technologies and to levy higher tariffs to limit Russia’s ability to replace military equipment it has lost in Ukraine. A ban on gold exports could deny Russia as much as $19 billion in revenue.

BLINKEN: SANCTIONS ARE BITING: As Russia boasts that its oil revenues are up, thanks to high prices on the world market, and the Russian ruble has largely recovered, the U.S. argues that the sanctions imposed by the West “are having a profound impact” on Russia’s economy.

“Even as it gets oil revenues with higher prices, it's unable to spend them because of the export controls. It can't acquire what it needs to modernize its defense sector, to modernize its technology, to modernize its energy exploration, which means that, over time, each of these areas is going to go in decline,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken on CNN Sunday.

“Already, we're seeing predictions that the Russian economy will shrink by 8% to 15% next year. The ruble is being propped up artificially, at great expense,” he said. “A thousand companies, major international companies, have left Russia. They had products that were still on the shelf when they left, but those supplies have now dwindled. Russians are no longer able to buy what they're used to buying. The standard of living for Russians is dropping. All of this is having an effect immediately, but it's also having a cumulative effect.”

Overnight we learned that Russia defaulted on its sovereign debt for the first time in more than a century.

NEW AIR DEFENSES: As Russian bombers targeted a suburb of Kyiv with a volley of air-launched cruise missiles Sunday, the U.S. is preparing to purchase a Norwegian advanced surface-to-air missile defense system for Ukraine, according to the Associated Press. The Kongsberg-Raytheon NASAMS Air Defense System is said to be the same one used by the U.S. to protect restricted airspace around the White House and U.S. Capitol.

WHO CAN HOLD OUT LONGER? In a war of attrition, the side that can withstand heavy casualties while maintaining the ability and the will to fight the longest stands the best chance of winning. As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth month with no end in sight, both sides are suffering heavy losses, but Russia is slowly consolidating its grip on the eastern Donbas region, which was the stated goal of Putin’s “special military operation,” which began Feb 24.

On Friday, a senior defense official downplayed recent Russian advances, including the capture of Severodonetsk three days ago, arguing that Russia was paying a high price for a “very small, very incremental gain.”

“Really, the Russians are just eking out inch by inch of territory here,” the official said. “So in moving the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Severodonetsk back, what they are doing is putting themselves in a position where they can better defend themselves.”

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military reports losses of up to 200 soldiers a day and that it has nearly depleted its stocks of Soviet-era artillery shells, forcing it to rely more on the smaller number of U.S. and Western-supplied artillery systems.

But Russia continues to have manpower and equipment shortages, and one senior Western official told the Washington Post that Russia may soon be forced to curtail its offensive.

“There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs, and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability,” the official told the Washington Post.

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Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not publish Monday, July 4, as we observe the Independence Day federal holiday. We’ll be back in your inbox and online Tuesday, July 5.

HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg briefs reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels at 7 a.m. Washington time to preview the NATO Summit in Madrid, which begins tomorrow. Livestream and transcript will be available on the NATO website, https://www.nato.int/

PUTIN TO MOVE NUKES INTO BELARUS: In a meeting in St. Petersburg Saturday with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he would supply Belarus with nuclear-armed missiles.

According to a transcript of the meeting, posted on the Kremlin website, the decision was framed as a response to a request from Lukashenko, who expressed concern about “training flights by the US and NATO airplanes, which practice carrying nuclear warheads.”

“On the issue you raised, a decision was made in our country,” said Putin. “Within the next several months, we will transfer to Belarus the Iskander-M tactical missile systems, which are known to use both ballistic and cruise missiles, both conventional and nuclear.”

RUSSIA TO PLACE NUCLEAR-CAPABLE MISSILES IN BELARUS

IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS TO RESUME: Despite low expectations for a revival of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, negotiations are set to resume this week in Qatar, with some intractable sticking points standing in the way of the Biden administration’s desire to resurrect the agreement that President Donald Trump killed in 2018.

Iran is still demanding that the U.S. remove its terrorist designation for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, something Washington is not willing to do.

Meanwhile, Iran launched a solid-fueled rocket into space, said to be capable of carrying a satellite, which is a violation of United Nations resolutions.

IRAN LAUNCHES SATELLITE-CARRYING ROCKET INTO SPACE

INHOFE INCENSED: On Friday, the Pentagon announced the transfer of Guantanamo detainee Assadullah Haroon Gul to a third country to facilitate his repatriation to Afghanistan.

Gul, who had been held in Guantanamo for 15 years, was never charged with a war crime, and eventually a federal court in Washington ruled the U.S. no longer had a legal basis to detain him.

The transfer was immediately denounced by Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“The Biden administration sent a very dangerous person back to the Taliban, which naturally welcomed him with open arms,” said Inhofe in a statement. “President Biden’s chaotic, hasty, and deadly withdrawal from Afghanistan last August, which enabled the Taliban’s takeover and reduced our ability to track the terrorist groups responsible for the 9/11 attacks, substantially increased the threat to our homeland.”

“By returning this Guantanamo detainee to the Taliban, President Biden is now repopulating the terrorists’ ranks,” he said. “Congress must act quickly to prevent the Biden administration from acting so recklessly again in the future, because the administration’s track record is clear and dangerous.”

AFGHAN NATIONAL HELD IN GUANTANAMO BAY FOR 15 YEARS RELEASED

GUARD SOLDIERS FACE LOOMING COVID VAX DEADLINE: Army National Guard troops have until Thursday to get vaccinated against COVID-19 or face dismissal from the service.

“As of last week, the Army has separated 1,037 soldiers for refusing the lawful order to receive the COVID-19 vaccine,” the Army said in its latest update. “To date, Army commanders have issued 3,464 general officer written reprimands to Regular Army Soldiers for refusing the vaccination order.”

But the Army has not released figures on how many Guard and Reserve soldiers have reused the vaccine.

The Associated Press reports up to 40,000 Army National Guard soldiers across the country — or about 13% of the force — have so far refused the vaccine, according to data it analyzed.

“We’re going to give every soldier every opportunity to get vaccinated and continue their military career. Every soldier that is pending an exemption, we will continue to support them through their process,” Lt. Gen. Jon Jensen, director of the Army National Guard, told the Associated Press. “We’re not giving up on anybody until the separation paperwork is signed and completed. There’s still time.”

AUSTIN ON DOBBS: The Pentagon is assessing the impact of the landmark Supreme Court decision Dobbs v. Jackson, which gives states the right to regulate and ban abortion. It’s not clear how federal facilities, such as military hospitals, in states that restrict abortion will be affected.

“The Department is examining this decision closely and evaluating our policies to ensure we continue to provide seamless access to reproductive health care as permitted by federal law,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a statement Friday.

“Nothing is more important to me or to this Department than the health and well-being of our Service members, the civilian workforce and DOD families,” Austin said. “I am committed to taking care of our people and ensuring the readiness and resilience of our force.”

PENTAGON 'EXAMINING' ROE V. WADE REVERSAL 'CLOSELY,' AUSTIN SAYS

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: China pursuing 'largest military buildup in history since WWII,' US commander says

Washington Examiner: Pentagon 'examining' Roe v. Wade reversal 'closely,' Austin says

Washington Examiner: Iran nuclear talks to resume with US in 'coming days,' EU says

Washington Examiner: Iran launches satellite-carrying rocket into space

Washington Examiner: Russia to place nuclear-capable missiles in Belarus

Washington Examiner: UN nuclear watchdog decries safeguards process at Russian-held plant in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Afghan national held in Guantanamo Bay for 15 years released

Washington Examiner: Teenage Air Force ROTC cadet dies in Idaho training accident

Washington Post: Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western assessments predict

Washington Post: The war in Ukraine is on track to be among modern history’s bloodiest

USNI News: Chinese, Russian Warships Continue To Circle Japan, Defense Minister Says

Air Force Magazine: INDOPACOM Boss Wants the Air Force to Base Fifth-Gen Fighters Closer to China

Defense One: It’s Time To Base Fifth-Gen Fighter Jets On Guam, INDOPACOM Chief Says

USNI News: CNO Gilday: Sweden, Finland’s NATO Membership Poised To Change Allied Arctic Strategy

Air Force Magazine: Kendall Dispenses With Roper’s Quick NGAD Rhythm; System is Too Complex

Air Force Magazine: Kendall: ‘Unrealistic’ for Air Force to Fight Two Wars While Modernizing

19fortyfive.com: U.S. Foreign Policy Restraint Doesn't Mean Dumping Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: What Exactly Is a Proxy War?

The Cipher Brief: Art Imitates Real Intelligence

Calendar

MONDAY | JUNE 27

7 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg briefs reporters ahead of the Madrid Leaders Summit https://www.nato.int

9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: beginning at 9 a.m., on "Will Turkey Derail NATO Enlargement?" with Alper Coskun, senior fellow at the CEIP Europe Program; Judy Dempsey, nonresident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe; Marc Pierini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe; and Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/06/27/twitter-spaces

11 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion: "The Economic and Security Consequences of Great-Power Competition,” with Joseph Votel, president and CEO of Business Executives for National Security; Anthony Vinci, competitive council vice chair at Business Executives for National Security; Mackenzie Eaglen, AEI senior fellow; and Derek Scissors, AEI senior fellow https://www.aei.org/events/the-economic-and-security

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion on perspectives and priorities that Finland brings to Nordic security and Russia's vision for the world, as well as Finland's role within the NATO alliance, with Finland Ambassador to the U.S. Mikko Hautala; and Peter Rough, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/2126-virtual-event-the-ambassadors-series

2 p.m. — SETA Foundation at Washington, D.C., virtual discussion: "The Madrid Summit: NATO's New Strategic Concept," with Mustafa Kibaroglu, professor at MEF University; Charles Kupchan, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Kilic Kanat, SETA research director https://tinyurl.com/572bkbw6

2 p.m. — Wilson Center's Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion: "Defining a Successful Resolution to Russia's War in Ukraine," with former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis; and former USAID Administrator Mark Green, president, director and CEO of the Wilson Center https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event

4 p.m. Pentagon Briefing Room — Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; and William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; announce a University Affiliated Research Center initiative with Historically Black Colleges and Universities https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/

TUESDAY | JUNE 28

TBA — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin travels to Madrid, Spain, to attend the NATO Leaders Summit and to Stuttgart, Germany, for the change of command ceremony for Gen. Christopher Cavoli who assumes command of all U.S. military forces in Europe and serves as the Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO.

9:30 a.m. — Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government in Madrid, Spain, with an opening speech from Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies hybrid event: “National Security and Artificial Intelligence: Global Trends and Challenges,” with Paul “PJ” Maykish, senior director of research and analysis for future technology platforms at the Special Competitive Studies Project; David Spirk, former DOD chief data officer; Neil Serebryany, CEO of CalypsoAI; Margaret Palmieri, deputy chief digital and AI officer, Department of Defense; and Jake Harrington, intelligence fellow, International Security Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/national-security-and-artificial-intelligence

1 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: "Delivering Justice for Ukraine: Pursuing Accountability for Russian Atrocities and Restoring the Constitutional Rights of the Ukrainian People," with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Ukrainian Ambassador at Large Anton Korynevyeh; U.S. Ambassador at Large for Global Criminal Justice Beth Van Schaack; Ukrainian Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova; and Lise Grande, USIP president and CEO https://www.usip.org/events/delivering-justice-ukraine

4 p.m. 616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “National Security and Artificial Intelligence: Global Trends and Challenges," with former Defense Department Chief Data Officer David Spirk; Paul Maykish, senior director of research and analysis for future technology platforms at the Special Competitive Studies Project; and Neil Serebryany, CEO at CalypsoAI https://www.csis.org/events/national-security

WEDNESDAY | JUNE 29

2 a.m. — Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg speaks to reporters as he arrives at the Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government in Madrid, Spain, followed by an opening ceremony at 4 a.m., and an end of day briefing by Stoltenberg at 7:45 a.m. (All times eastern). https://www.nato.int

10 a.m. — House Appropriations Committee markup of the FY2023 State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations bill http://appropriations.house.gov

10 a.m. — Business Council for International Understanding virtual discussion on "the economic and supply chain impact of the Russia/Ukraine war through an agriculture lens," with Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute; and Eric Trachtenberg, senior director for land and agriculture economy at the Millennium Challenge Corporation https://bciu.zohobackstage.com/

11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola on "the war in Ukraine, EU membership and the EU's role in the conflict." https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Winning the Airwaves: The Future of DOD Electromagnetic Spectrum Operations," with Brig. Gen. AnnMarie Anthony; director of operations at U.S. Strategic Command; Col. William Young, commander at U.S. Air Force 355th Spectrum Warfare Wing; and David Tremper, director for electronic warfare in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment https://www.hudson.org/events/2115-virtual-event

12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — The Cato Institute virtual discussion: on "What Will Be the Impact of the War in Ukraine for the Future of European Security?" with Nicole Koenig, fellow at the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies; Barry Posen, professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; and Justin Logan, senior fellow at Cato https://www.cato.org/events/what-will-be-impact-war-ukraine

1 p.m. — Global Zero virtual discussion: “The Real Cost of ICBMs: U.S. Economic Development Beyond Defense Spending." https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/

9 p.m. Simi Valley, California — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute discussion with Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., as part of the "A time for Choosing" series with leading voices in the conservative movement. https://www.reaganfoundation.org/programs-events

THURSDAY | JUNE 30 

6:15 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg press conference at the conclusion of the Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government in Madrid, Spain. https://www.nato.int

10 a.m. — The Middle East Institute virtual discussion: "Will the War in Ukraine Push Iran and Russia to Compete?" with Jakub Godzimirski, professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs; Diana Galeeva, visiting fellow at Oxford University; Hamidreza Azizi, fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs; and Abdolrasool Divsallar, MEI nonresident scholar https://www.mei.edu/events

FRIDAY | JULY 1

10 a.m. — American Security Project virtual briefing: “Unpacking the 2022 NATO Summit," with former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Navy Adm. James Stavridis, vice chair and managing director of the Carlyle Group https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event

MONDAY | JULY 4

Independence Day holiday — no Daily on Defense

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