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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stands in front of the Chancellery in Berlin on Jan. 19. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

In the first days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a Zeitenwende or “turn of an era” toward reinvigorated German leadership and defense policy on the continent. After 100 days of war, Germany is already settling back into its pre-war posture, which Hudson Senior Fellow Peter Rough [[link removed]] contends may allow Moscow to snatch victory in Ukraine from the jaws of defeat. In his article at Foreign Policy [[link removed]], Peter examines how Germany’s flagging response to Russia risks not only undermining Ukraine’s war aims, but European confidence and stability for years to come. Highlights from his analysis follow.”

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Key Insights

1. Swayed by France—and the U.S.—Victory in Ukraine Does Not Seem To Be the Goal

French President Emmanuel Macron has been pushing to end the war on terms that spare Putin any “ humiliation [[link removed]].” Scholz has initiated several calls with Putin, most recently a joint call with Macron, and prioritized a cease-fire and solving the global commodity crisis. Scholtz is also reportedly reversing an earlier promise to station extra troops in Lithuania, and he and his defense minister, Christine Lambrecht, refuse to publicly endorse support for a Ukraine victory. In this, they are encouraged by unlikely ally: the United States. In private with their German counterparts, senior Biden administration officials have explicitly stated that Washington is not aiming for victory, either. Putin almost certainly perceives flagging Western resolve. In the days after the Scholz-Macron call, for example, he doubled down on attacking Ukrainian grain facilities.

2. German Military Assistance to Ukraine Remains Paltry

Berlin reportedly failed to meaningfully supply [[link removed]] Ukraine with any weapons in April and May and has yet to deliver a single heavy weapon since the start of the war. Although a few major systems are expected to reach [[link removed]] Ukraine later this summer, the real prize—an advanced anti-aircraft system—won’t deploy until this fall, at which point German intelligence assesses [[link removed]] Russia may have already completed its conquest of the Donbas.

3. Russian Appeasement Will Damage the European Union

Germany’s eagerness to get back to business as usual will set Europe back by years, perhaps even decades. The initial goodwill bought by Germany for suspending the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia is fleeting, especially if any deal over Ukraine includes sanctions relief and the return to full oil and gas deliveries. Any such deal is sure to kill any remaining solidarity and trust underpinning the European Union. Even if they are not outright destabilized by the war, Eastern European states such as Poland [[link removed]] and the Baltics [[link removed]] will, in the future, see an EU led by France and Germany less as a community of values and more as an economic arrangement held together by euros and cents.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

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