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Dear Friends,
On Monday NDN returns to a subject we’ve been working on for 20 years now – the all important Hispanic vote.
I will be hosting a conversation with leading pollster and strategist Fernand Amandi, who among other important achievements helped guide the 2012 Obama campaign’s Hispanic strategy, one which received the highest share of Hispanic votes of any Presidential campaign since the vote became contested a generation ago.
Fernand will be reviewing the findings of new polls of Hispanic voters in AZ, NV and PA conducted for our friends at Future Majority. The results were promising, as the Hispanic vote in these three states looks a lot like more the very strong Democratic year of 2018 than 2020. If this research found any “erosion,” it was in the Republican brand and with Republican candidates, not in the Democratic brand and with Democratic candidates in these states. You can read a summary memo of these polls here, and find detailed data from all three states here. This is terrific, high-quality work and we are pleased to be able to bring it to you.
You can register for our event on Monday, June 13th at 1pm ET here.
I will also be reviewing a new analysis we’ve published looking at the remarkable success of the Democratic Party’s Hispanic strategy since George W. Bush used his own Hispanic strategy to flip critical states and win the Presidency, twice. This strategy has been instrumental in taking a region of the country, the Southwest, and turning it from a Republican leaning one to a Democratic leaning one. A few key stats from this new research:
In 2004 in the four Southwestern states, AZ, CO, NM, NV, Republicans won all 27 electoral college votes, controlled 5 of 8 of the Senate seats and 14 of 21 the region’s House seats. In 2020, after many years of investment, Democrats won all the region’s now 31 electoral college votes, controlled all 8 of the region’s Senate seats, and won 14 of the region’s 21 House seats. Without these gains Democrats would not have majorities in either in the Senate or House and in 2024 would have not have an Electoral College majority.
In 2004, a year George Bush where received 44% of the Hispanic vote, the Democratic margin with Hispanics was 700,000 net votes. In 2020, in a much larger Hispanic electorate, Joe Biden’s national margin was 5.4m votes, almost 5m more. Joe Biden’s margin of victory in 2020 was 7m votes.
Finally, Future Majority provided this summary of the memo: “Our research found that the Democrats’ brand is performing well among Latino voters in these three states, but the Republican brand is not. Our data suggests Democrats have the opportunity to replicate their strong 2018 and 2020 performance with Latinos in these states this year, strong showings which contributed to what were very good years for Democrats in all three states. As the Latino electorate has a higher share of new, younger and infrequent voters than the overall electorate, and thus is more prone to midterm drop-off, Democrats will only be assured of these potential promising outcomes with significant investment and strong engagement through their campaigns.”
We hope you will join us on Monday. Will be a good one.
Best, Simon
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