John --

Good morning, and welcome to a JUNE issue of our legislative update!

You might be thinking to yourself: why are we still in session in June? Normally our legislative sessions end around early May. We are months past the point when we stopped holding regular committee hearings. Most weeks we are only at the capitol for two or three days per week before decamping for long weekends.

So, what’s the deal? Well, just like last year, when our session went all the way until June 30^th, the answer is simple: the majority does not have the votes to pass a state budget, and they simply refuse to work with Democrats in any kind of substantive way on a compromise deal.

It’s not for a lack of trying. I’m meeting almost daily with stakeholders around the capitol on a bipartisan budget deal that would invest in our K-12 public schools, dedicate resources to long-term water management, and help pay down state debt. The concept has bipartisan support and would have gotten us out of session months ago if it could have gone on the board for a vote.

We have a large surplus this year, and that helps explain the delay as well. Recent estimates show a roughly $1.5 billion ongoing surplus that could be used on ongoing expenses, and a one-time surplus of over $3 billion that could be used on one-time expenses like water, infrastructure, paying down state debt, or shoring up our state pension programs (for context, the overall state budget is around $14 billion per year).

So, what’s the problem? Well, a big hang-up is that leadership in the House is demanding something that Democrats will never ever support: a universal expansion of ESAs, or school vouchers. The recent gambit, which will likely be attempted this week, would be to separate votes for almost $1 billion of ongoing funding for K-12 schools and the universal ESA voucher expansion.

There is no world where this works. Any vote for a budget deal that includes universal ESA expansion is an absolute non-starter for every Democrat at the legislature. Leadership in the House has tried for weeks to pick off individual Democratic members one by one, with zero success.

There is also a faction of the majority caucus in the House who wants to CUT spending in the budget this year, to the tune of several billion dollars a year. We don’t know yet where these cuts would come from, or what specific programs would be on the chopping block. This is a non-starter for both Democrats and most Republicans as well.

Another factor that is important in this conversation is the governor, who is term-limited and cannot run again later this year. He wants a lot of new spending, both on-going and one-time. His wish list includes $1 billion for water infrastructure, pay raises for DPS officers and correctional officers, and a darn good tax cut idea if I’ve ever seen one (my Earned Income Tax Credit bill from last year). There are Republican members who aren’t crazy about spending all this additional money and would rather save it for the next legislative session or cut taxes even more than they did last year.

And did I mention the Senate currently sits at 16-14 and the House sits at 31-29? That means that unless the majority can get every member of their caucus to support a budget with a lot of new spending, they need Democrats. And so far, they have refused to work with us in any kind of meaningful way.

So, we continue to drift slowly out into the sea. I could have told you over two months ago what the eventual deal would need to be, and that thinking holds true today: a bipartisan budget deal that includes spending on both Republican and Democratic priorities. This would mean supporting the governor’s ideas and adding priorities that Democrats have as well, including our K-12 public schools, housing, and our social safety net.

As you probably know, we have a deadline of June 30^th. That’s less than a month away. That’s when the current fiscal year ends, with the new fiscal year starting on July 1^st. The budget we need to pass by the end of the month would start on July 1^st.

About half of our state budget is dedicated to K-12 education, and many school districts now start in July instead of August. These districts are in limbo and don’t have a firm idea of what their full budgets will look like for the next school year.

We came dangerously close to a shutdown last year, and I fear it may be more of the same this year. I expect negotiations and discussions to heat up this week, but the math hasn’t changed. I don’t see any way out of this session without a bipartisan budget, and if there is anyone who is willing to sit down and make a deal, it’s me.

It’s my final legislative session, and I want to go out on a high note. Striking a bipartisan budget deal that invests in our K-12 schools, pays down state debt, and makes critically important investments in infrastructure across Arizona sounds like a great way to go out on a high note.

The cherry on top would be passing my Earned Income Tax Credit bill into law. It’s already passed the Senate and is awaiting a vote in the House.

I continue to work hard every day to try to get us closer to a budget deal. At the same time, I am also working to make sure that a BAD budget does not pass either.

Thank you as always for reading. I hope to have additional updates for you soon. You can follow me on Facebook and Twitter for more regular updates.

Take care and all the best,

Sean

http://www.seanbowieforaz.com/

Paid for by Sean Bowie for State Senate. Authorized by Sean Bowie.