STOP PRESS: Election activity has been overshadowed by the tragic events at London Bridge on Friday. Although this seems a long way from our daily lives in West Wales, the attack reminds us of the ongoing threat of terrorism in the UK and the bravery of all of those involved in bringing the incident to a conclusion.
We therefore suspended election campaigning (including sending this newsletter) by 24 hours.
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The great thing about opinion polls is that absolutely everyone can argue that they aid their cause.
If they point to an ignominious defeat you can say they are a 'rogue' or a 'useful wakeup call'. If they show you storming to victory, a smug 'nothing to be complacent' about comment will suffice. That said, they are a snap shot of opinion on a certain day, not a prediction of the National mood in a couple of weeks time.
So where are we in this area with just two weeks to go?
Since my last newsletter I have driven 1000 miles and never once left the constituency. From Llanpumsaint to Angle, Glandy Cross to Manorbier, we have been soaked and blown, welcomed and sent packing (only occasionally!). Nearly 300 signs have gone up and 1 box short of 20,000 leaflets have been distributed. On social media we have chalked up nearly 200,000 'engagements' which apparently translates into a fair chunk of our 35,000 households.
There have been plenty of arguments and discussions along the way too - the overwhelming majority very civil. What always delights me in travelling across the constituency is the pride that everyone here has for the area. We all love living here. We all want what is best for the area, for the economy, the landscape and the things we rely on. We are five hours from London because we want to be! If I could sum up people's attitudes across Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire it would be that we want to preserve what is best about where we live and work but not miss out on the opportunities that the future offers us. We are ambitious for our area and embrace change but we are likewise very protective and proud of what we already have. As in every election I've ever been involved with as residents we care most about our house, our family, our health, our schools and our jobs, but racing to join this list of priorities is our environment too.
So, most of the manifestos are now out there, TV debates are in the can, and postal votes are landing on the doorsteps of those opting for that style of voting. Someone once said that campaigns never change anything and there is a grain of truth in that. In any election leaders tend to be loved or hated and their causes greeted with the same polarised views.
In this election I have picked up one really key thing which separates it from the others I have been involved with. Its about a sense of direction. It's not about whether Johnson or Corbyn are perfect in every way, or whether there are aspects of their pasts that cause unease. Nor is it the minutiae of each and every policy. There will never, ever be consensus about these things but a gut feeling for the direction we are heading is increasingly the deciding factor. And if you will forgive me being overtly partisan for just one moment, I don't sense West Wales is ready for the Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott style of socialism as it is so far apart from the traditional Labour offer that did so well under Blair and Brown.
A very close friend of mine, whose voting history or intention is no business of mine, amazed me recently in her enthusiasm for Boris, based on exactly this. The sense of optimism and positivity, sprinkled with some of the characteristics that make him one of the best known (and controversial) politicians on the circuit is enough to convince her that she would rather follow his lead than others on offer.
I know you might say 'well he would say that wouldn't he' and you would be right. But as a Brexit remainer who believes that a public vote deserves respect, I know who I think is most likely to see that emerge from all of this with the Union intact, the economy on course and, to quote Churchill, a return to the 'bright sunlit uplands'.
