Russia Controls One-Fifth of Ukraine After One Hundred Days of War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the extent of Russian gains (NYT) since its February invasion, saying Russia now controls Ukrainian territory that is equivalent to the size of Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands combined. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Director-General Jens Stoltenberg said Western countries should be prepared (AFP) for a long “war of attrition” in Ukraine.

Russia has focused attacks in recent weeks on the eastern Donbas region, where the United Kingdom said Russian forces have gained momentum (BBC) over Ukrainian forces. In the country’s south, a Ukrainian official said Ukrainian forces have retaken twenty towns and villages. As part of efforts to punish Russia for the invasion, the United States announced new sanctions on members of the country’s elite and Russian yachts.

Analysis

“At the 100 day mark, the Ukraine war [is] a classic glass half full/empty case. Ukraine with US & European backing has mounted a valiant response of unexpected effectiveness. But growing concerns over Russian gains in south & east along with signs of some weakening of West’s cohesion,” CFR President Richard Haass tweets.

“Despite its failures in Ukraine, Russia retains the capacity and the will to continue to seriously challenge the United States and Europe. Russia may be down, but it’s not out,” the Center for a New American Security’s Andrea Kendall-Taylor and CNA’s Michael Kofman write for the New York Times.

CFR’s Center for Preventive Action traces the history of conflict in Ukraine.

Pacific Rim

U.S., Japan, South Korea Hold Talks on North Korea

At a meeting of senior officials in Seoul, the countries agreed to increase security cooperation (Kyodo) in response to North Korea’s recent missile testing. Pyongyang has conducted fifteen missile tests since the start of the year.

This Backgrounder unpacks North Korea’s military capabilities.

China: Four neighborhoods in Shanghai were locked down again (CNN) due to the detection of seven new COVID-19 cases, days after authorities lifted citywide restrictions.

South and Central Asia

Indian Officials Meet With Taliban in Kabul

During their first trip to Afghanistan since the Taliban’s takeover, Indian officials said they were focused on providing humanitarian aid (The Hindu) to the country, while Taliban officials urged them to reopen the Indian embassy in Kabul.

U.S./Bangladesh: At economic talks in Washington, U.S. officials said they would consider Bangladesh’s request (UNB) for development financing and urged the country to adhere to international labor standards.

Middle East and North Africa

Reports: Biden to Travel to Saudi Arabia

U.S. President Joe Biden will travel to Riyadh (NYT) this month amid efforts to encourage oil-producing countries to increase production, officials told multiple media outlets. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil-producing nations, such as Russia, agreed yesterday to increase production in July and August.

Egypt/Turkey: The countries are holding their first ministerial-level meeting (Bloomberg) in nearly a decade as Turkey tries to reset relations with Arab countries.

This Backgrounder looks at Turkey’s growing foreign policy ambitions.

Sub-Saharan Africa

African Union Chief to Talk Food Crisis in Meeting With Putin

The chair of the African Union, Senegalese President Macky Sall, is expected to ask (NYT) Russian President Vladimir Putin to lift a blockade on Ukrainian grain shipments due to its strain on global food prices.

Sudan: Sudan’s military junta formed a negotiating committee (Bloomberg) for its first direct talks with opposition leaders since the October 2021 coup, a UN envoy said. The talks next week will focus on resolving the country’s political crisis.

Europe

Von Der Leyen Defends EU Plan for Poland

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen defended a plan (Politico) to give Poland pandemic recovery funds despite opposition from senior European Commission members, who argued that the plan doesn’t do enough to ensure Warsaw rolls back measures that have undermined the country’s rule of law.

Americas

Argentina’s Fernandez to Attend Summit of the Americas

Argentine President Alberto Fernandez confirmed he will attend (MercoPress) next week’s Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles and will meet with President Biden separately in July.

For Foreign Affairs, Michael Shifter and Bruno Binetti discuss how Washington can reset relations with Latin America.

El Salvador: Amnesty International said at least eighteen people have died in state custody since late March amid a sweeping government crackdown in response to a surge in gang violence. The organization also said the government has committed “massive human rights violations,” including arbitrary detentions and torture.

United States

Biden Calls for Assault Weapons Ban

President Biden called on Congress to ban assault weapons (NPR) and implement a range of gun-control measures including background checks and red flag laws, saying mass shootings are creating “killing fields” throughout the United States.

Friday Editor’s Pick

The Washington Post goes inside Chernobyl’s nuclear laboratories to examine the damage done by Russian forces.

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