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Members of the Communist Party of China (CPC) review the oath of joining the party in front of the party flag on April 13, 2021 in Luoyang, Henan Province of China. (Photo by Jia Fangwen/VCG via Getty Images)

Reacting to President Biden’s reaffirmation of the U.S.’s commitment to defend Taiwan and Secretary Blinken’s May 26 speech on U.S. policy toward China, Hudson Senior Fellow Miles Yu [[link removed]] and Distinguished Fellow Kenneth Weinstein [[link removed]] provide insights into both China’s intentions and U.S. policy on Counterbalance [[link removed]] with host Marshall Kosloff [[link removed]].

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Key Insights

1. China Views its Relationship with the U.S. as, “Life or Death” [Yu]

This view is a consequence of the traditional understanding of the world affairs according to Marx and Lenin: capitalist democracies and social systems are like oil and water; they cannot mix. If you read Xi Jinping’s speeches—if you read any leader from Mao Zedong to Deng Xiaoping to Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao, then to Xi Jinping, they have a remarkable ideological consistency. They all stress this uncompromising daily, epic struggle between these two systems.

Thus, the Chinese Communist Party believes that the very existence of the United States poses an existential threat to the communist regime. It doesn’t matter which party is in power, which party is in the White House. What China fears most is that the Chinese people will aspire to join the system, the democratic institutions represented by the United States. Their doctrinal policy toward the United States is to always treat the enemy as the eternal enemy.

2. Turmoil Within China is Creating Uncertainty, Yet Sights Remain Set on Taiwan [Yu]

Inside China, there's immense turmoil. China is looking forward to the 20th Party Congress where Xi Jinping was going to be potentially anointed as the “Great Helmsman” for life. Yet, at this very moment, Xi Jinping seems to be losing some of his authority to rivals, which is unprecedented. This year he is facing the challenges, though—he's tied himself so closely to Vladimir Putin and he's battling a resurgent challenge of COVID in China. The dirty little secret is, of course, that the Sinovac doesn't really work to stop the disease from spreading, and they've had to take brutal measures to prevent the spread of COVID. Over 438 million people were in cities where there were total COVID lockdowns. You can see the impact that's having on the Chinese economy, which already was weak due to a real-estate bubble thanks to Xi Jinping's crackdown on the tech giants that have been a source of revenue and growth for the country.

Xi Jinping understands himself as the most dynamic leader in China since Mao Zedong, and he has an aspiration to rival Mao as a great historic figure. Certainly, taking control of Hong Kong is one example. Restoring socialism, rather than capitalism, as the guiding ethos for China is another. But the big pearl in his eyes, of course, is his desire to eventually take over Taiwan. He claims this as central to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people, which cannot happen unless Taiwan is, in his terms, "reunited with China." Thus, Taiwan's defense remains first and foremost in the minds of most strategists in the United States.

3. The U.S. Must Treat China as an Adversary, not a “Competitor,” and Prioritize Taiwan [Yu]

The U.S. national consensus on China policy has shifted away from engagement; there has been an awakening about the nature and intention and the capability of the Chinese Communist party. Yet, Secretary of State Tony Blinken’s speech was stuck on the idea of China as a “competitor.” While Beijing defined our relationship as a matter of uncompromised, life-and-death struggle, the U.S. definition is competition. Competition is a good term, but not strong enough, because we must factor in the malign aspect of the Chinese perception of this relationship whenever we consider regional and global power struggles with China. We must treat China as an adversary that will use all necessary means. For Xi, everything is on the table to win the struggle against the United States. We must find a way to appropriate reciprocate strength.

Our priorities should involve, first and foremost, trying to imagine what the Chinese might be thinking of doing regarding Taiwan, and then trying to counteract whatever capabilities China is developing. We've seen a massive buildup of Chinese presence in the South China Sea. We've seen a massive transformation of China's defense capabilities and nuclear program over the last few years. We must look at what China is doing and put in place a "strategy of denial," whereby we work hand-in-hand with our closest allies in the region to deny China the ability to take control of Taiwan.

4. Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Provides Useful Lessons to China and U.S. Allies Alike [Weinstein]

The aftermath of Russia's disastrous attempt to conquer Ukraine is going to send Chinese strategists back to the drawing board. They're going to have to look at what Russia did wrong—the Chinese are great experts at looking at historical examples and drawing lessons from them. And so, what lessons do Chinese strategists take out of the failure of Putin to conquer Ukraine quickly, and how do those lessons apply to what they may try to do over Taiwan?

A lot of countries around the world are looking at the example of what's going on in Ukraine, not just because it's important to back the people of Ukraine and their fight for freedom and independence, but also with an eye on sending a clear signal to other autocrats, in particular China, that this kind of behavior will not be tolerated by the democratic world.

Increasingly, Japanese strategists think that it is critical to show as much will and as much ability as possible to efficiently and effectively arm the Ukrainians. To drive the Russians out of occupied Ukrainian territory is to set an example, not just for the Russians, but also for the CCP eyeing the island of Taiwan.

Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.

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Sec. Pompeo Speech on Taiwan [[link removed]]

Taiwan’s freedom is critical in the fight against tyranny in Asia, argued Hudson Distinguished Fellow Secretary Michael Pompeo [[link removed]] in his address to the Taiwan Prospect Foundation in Taipei. Pompeo said the U.S. should take the long-overdue steps to offer the Republic of China (Taiwan) America’s diplomatic recognition as a free and sovereign country.

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Defense & Aerospace Podcast – Washington Roundtable May 26, 2022 [[link removed]]

In its aggression toward Taiwan, China, not the U.S., is changing its approach to cross-strait relations, argues Hudson Senior Fellow Patrick Cronin [[link removed]] on the Washington Roundtable podcast. In this episode, Patrick joins Dr. Dov Zakheim and Chris Servello to analyze President Biden’s first trip to Asia, the administration’s broad new Pacific strategy and the pledge to defend Taiwan, as well as issues facing NATO, what’s next in Russia’s war on Ukraine, and more.

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Virtual Event | What to Expect from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework [[link removed]]

Hudson’s Japan Chair Deputy Director Riley Walters [[link removed]] leads a discussion with Senior Fellow John Lee [[link removed]] and Vice President of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council Lotta Danielsson on the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. While there is appetite in the Pacific for U.S. economic engagement, John, Lotta, and Riley provide perspectives on whether this framework’s substance, scope, and timeline will support its goal of meaningfully enhancing security and prosperity in the region.

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