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NDN’s Saliency Index 5 – Jobs/Economy, Inflation, Health Care, Climate Change Top Dem Concerns

So here it is, our latest Saliency Index from data taken from the May 12^th Navigator poll.  These are the results of their “top issue” question which asks respondents to choose 4 from a predetermined list.  NDN then creates modeled Dem and GOP electorates and runs the raw data through these models.  At a very top line this exercise shows how dramatically different the information universes of the two parties are right now.  Some notes on this data are below. See here for more on the methodology and to review our last full report. 

Modeled Dem	12-May	7-Mar	24-Jan	22-Nov	All Voters	12-May	7-Mar	24-Jan	22-Nov	Modeled R	12-May	7-Mar	24-Jan	22-Nov
J/Economy	46	51	54	57	Inflation	53	42	37	40	Inflation	62	54	44	51
Inflation	44	33	31	32	J/Economy	51	52	52	58	J/Economy	59	52	55	60
Health Care	38	31	44	41	Natl Sec	31	51	24	26	Immigration	44	45	41	51
Climate	34	34	40	44	Health Care	31	25	29	32	Natl Sec	33	57	32	36
COVID	31	37	64	57	Immigration	28	31	25	35	Crime	27	27	30	23
Natl Security	28	47	18	17	Soc/Med	25	24	25	31	Gov Corrupt	26	23	22	26
Soc/Medicare	27	27	32	35	Climate	24	25	25	31	Soc/Med	24	22	24	27
Abortion	25	9	11	12	Gov Corrupt	24	23	23	29	Health Care	22	19	21	21
Voting R	24	21	32	n/a	COVID	23	29	49	46	COVID	15	19	35	32
Gov Corrupt	20	20	27	27	Crime	22	22	23	21	Climate	12	15	13	15
Crime	17	17	19	20	Abortion	19	8	11	10	Education	11	9	10	n/a
Education	14	15	13	n/a	Voting R	18	15	24	n/a	Voting R	11	7	13	n/a
Immigration	13	18	16	21	Education	12	12	11	n/a	Abortion	11	6	11	8

Inflation Continues To Be Far Less of a Concern Among Democrats – In our last Saliency Index report we offered a detailed explanation for why we keep seeing lower intensity around inflation among Dems.  The bottom line is that the party of inflation that has really spiked has been gas prices, and it is very possible that rural and exurban voters who drive more and use more gas – and are much more likely to be Republican – are experiencing inflation much more intensely than those who use less gas.  If you drive a lot inflation has been crushing, and is a major economic event.  If you don’t drive a lot, or at all, inflation has actually been far less of an economic event in your life as up until a few months ago real wages were positive for all workers – meaning the typical American was staying ahead of inflation.  Even today, with inflation rising due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, our colleague Rob Shapiro finds that real wages remain in positive territory for full time workers.  So inflation has been more acute for those who drive a lot and part time workers.  For everyone else they are keeping up, regardless of how they feel and understand it.  

Finally, in older Navigator polling, Democratic voters overwhelming blamed inflation on COVID and not Joe Biden’s economic policies.  It is just true that COVID and Russia are now the primary causes of the inflation we are experiencing today.  So it is possible that inflation is less salient in the Democratic electorate for they do not see it as something caused by our government, which of course is a fair read of what is actually happening right now.  Republicans may be both feeling inflation more intensely than Dems, and of course right wing media has focused the blame on Biden rather than COVID, Russia and MBS, where much of the blame actually belongs.  

Abortion and Education seem to be secondary concerns for Republican voters - This continues to be a surprise, and challenges conventional wisdom in DC about how the election is going to be fought out in the months ahead.  GOP has very high levels of intensity around the economy and inflation right now, with the basket of security and safety issues – immigration, national security, crime – making up a clear second tier.  

Abortion is rising as an issue of concern for Democrats, Climate Continues To Be A Top Issue, COVID Has Receded – Not surprisingly we’ve seen significant movement on the abortion issue in recent weeks, and of note to Democratic operatives climate remains a very important issue to our voters.  Our guess is that the continued saliency of climate is being driven by younger voters.  Not also has much COVID has receded.  Economic issues are once again the top battleground in 2022.  

More data from May 12^th - This is another cut on the data from May 12^th.  Our modeled Dem electorate is 80% Dem, 15% independent, 5% R.  The modeled R is 80% R, 15% independent, 5% Dem.  Again, this is an exercise, and the modeled electorate in every state and district is unique.  

	Modeled					Modeled
Issue	D	Nav Total	D	I	R	R	Difference
Economy	46	51	41	66	59	59	-14
Inflation	44	53	41	56	65	62	-18
Health Care	38	31	40	35	19	22	16
Climate	34	24	38	22	9	12	22
COVID	31	23	34	19	13	15	16
Natl Security	28	31	29	18	36	33	-5
Soc S/Medicare	27	25	28	25	23	24	4
Abortion	25	19	28	13	10	11	14
Voting Rights	24	18	28	9	10	11	14
Gov Corruption	20	24	17	29	31	26	-6
Crime	17	22	16	21	29	27	-10
Education	14	12	13	21	9	11	3
Immigration	13	28	9	21	51	44	-32

​Best, Simon, and the rest of the NDN team 

 

 

                                                               

                                                                                                                                                                   

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