May 23, 2022
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Biden’s leadership deficit still weighing on midterms amid wave of dissatisfaction as 54 percent disapprove
By Robert Romano
Voter attitudes are setting in ahead of the 2022 Congressional midterms amid a wave of dissatisfaction over high inflation, food shortages and an imminent recession, with President Joe Biden garnering a whopping 54 percent disapproval rating, according to the latest average of national polls by RealClearPolitics.com.
Congressional Republicans for their part still lead the generic ballot, too, 45.5 percent to 43.4 percent, which, again, is definitely what you’d expect to see at this point in a midterm cycle that traditionally favors the opposition party.
In midterm elections dating back to 1906 through 2018, in 89.7 percent of cases, the White House incumbent party loses seats in the House, and in 58.6 percent of cases, it loses seats in the Senate. Losses experienced in the years with a loss averaged 35 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate.
Overall, including every year, the party that occupies the White House usually loses on average 31 seats in the House, and about three seats in the Senate.
For House losses, the exceptions to the rule were Franklin Roosevelt’s expansion of Democratic majorities during the Great Depression in 1932, Bill Clinton’s benefitting from a booming economy and public discontent over Congress’ pursuit of the Monica Lewinsky scandal in 1998 and George W. Bush’s surge in the polls following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 and Congressional votes on the imminent Iraq War in 2002.
The years the Senate has experienced losses in many years was mitigated by the regionality of Senate elections, where only one-third of the membership comes up for election every two years.
Certain Senate Democratic seats whose elections are falling in this year are particularly vulnerable, thanks to the midterm cycle. Those Democratic seats in play that appear to be in play this year are seats include Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado.
In a similar vein, many Republicans are opting to retire this year, assuming it will be easier to replace a Republican seat with midterm turnout favoring Republicans. Still, retiring seats tend to carry increased vulnerability, too, regardless of the cycle. Those seats include Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Alabama and Missouri.
That’s the map so far. But there could be headwinds for Republicans after a leak from the Supreme Court revealed that the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision allowing abortions might be overturned this year. Economist/YouGov, Politico/Morning Consult and NPR/PBS/Marist all show Democrats jumping to an average of 3.3 percentage points in their own generic ballot polls, following news of the pending decision. We’ll see if that sticks.
If that is any indication of how an actual decision would resonate publicly, even if just briefly, that could be an interesting subplot to the midterms, especially if Republicans are not politically prepared for the fallout of a thorny issue and how the Supreme Court’s decision might impact statewide Governor and Senate races.
In the meantime, Democrats will run on eliminating the filibuster, amending the Judiciary Act of 1869 and packing the Supreme Court. What else is there for them to do?
On the other hand, one of the particularly vexing dilemmas Supreme Court decisions pose to both political parties is the seeming generational finality of their decisions. Republicans have solidified a seeming 6 to 3 majority who were appointed by Republican presidents. And Democrats are nowhere close to achieving majorities needed to, say, pack the Supreme Court, under these circumstances.
Let’s say Democrats hold their Georgia and Arizona seats, and even pick up the Pennsylvania seat held by the retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). This is the worst-case scenario for Republicans in the midterms, by the way.
Even then, both Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), neither of whom are up for reelection this year, have been hard noes on eliminating the Senate filibuster. So, even if Democrats net one Senate seat in the midterms, they’d still fall short of the votes needed to eliminate a Senate filibuster. If they net two seats, on the other hand, that would be a different story.
Overall, though, the temperature of the elections tend to be set by the President himself. Can he turn the midterm jinx on hits head? In this case, Biden’s leadership deficit, and the continued bad economic news are a very potent, and potentially, toxic combination for Democrats. The bump Democrats are getting because of the Supreme Court could still be outmatched by the natural advantage Republicans possess this year. We’ll see in November. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2022/05/bidens-leadership-deficit-still-weighing-on-midterms-amid-wave-of-dissatisfaction-as-54-percent-disapprove/
Pausing the Disinformation Governance Board won't prohibit CISA's ongoing disinformation activities
May 18, 2022, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement in response to the Department of Homeland Security's announcement it is pausing the Disinformation Governance Board:
"Today's Department of Homeland Security decision to pause the Disinformation Governance Board is a small but somewhat meaningless step. The law that authorized the creation of CISA in 2018 allowed for disinformation communications to be relayed to private sector social media companies. Now, with this announcement, Congress needs to focus its efforts related to censorship at DHS entirely by eliminating or defunding the language allowing communications to be issued to private sector social media companies and other interactive computer services. Failure to rip the authorizing law out by the roots that allows the censorship in violation of the First Amendment in the first place will make today's announcement a Pyrrhic victory at best."
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2022/05/pausing-the-disinformation-governance-board-wont-prohibit-cisas-ongoing-disinformation-activities/
Linnea Lueken: Biden Cancels More Oil Lease Sales While Prices At The Pump Soar
By Linnea Lueken
The Biden administration recently canceled the sale of several offshore oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, leaving the oil industry justifiably concerned about the future of deepwater oil exploration and production in the United States.
These cancelations continue President Joe Biden’s mixed messaging about helping U.S. consumers facing skyrocketing gasoline prices, and America’s commitment to supplanting Russia as the primary energy supplier for Europe.
The lease sales were originally submitted by the Department of the Interior’s (DOI) Bureau of Ocean Energy Management under the 2017-2022 National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program. This was meant to provide lease sales for bidding on areas not under moratorium, and was approved by President Barack Obama in 2017.
In an article titled “USA Lease Sale Cancellation Leaves Industry in Limbo,” Rigzone asked DOI for comment on why these lease sales were canceled. DOI responded, “Due to lack of industry interest in leasing in the area, the Department will not move forward with the proposed Cook Inlet OCS oil and gas lease sale 258. The Department also will not move forward with lease sales 259 and 261 in the Gulf of Mexico region, as a result of delays due to factors including conflicting court rulings that impacted work on these proposed lease sales.”
The court rulings referenced by DOI are most likely referring to those from June 2021 and January 2022. In the first decision, a Louisiana federal court found the Biden administration’s moratorium on Gulf of Mexico lease sales illegal. Thus, the court lifted the ban.
In the second decision, an activist federal judge blocked a large lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico, claiming that the emissions impact of the potential development were not properly accounted for. This is strange considering the law mandating regularly scheduled lease sales does not require the federal government to account for greenhouse gas emissions before putting leases up for sale.
Moreover, DOI also repeated a disingenuous claim that has become popular among the Biden crew that lease sales are unnecessary because many existing leases are going unused. Rigzone writes that DOI claims that “as of May 1, of the 10.9 million offshore acres under lease, the industry is not producing on 8.26 million acres, or 75.7%.”
This is a bizarre statement for supposed experts at DOI to make, implying that “non-producing” blocks are evidence that further lease sales are not needed.
Rigzone’s investigation into the reasons behind the non-producing leases are in line with what the Heartland Institute has previously reported: Companies invest in multiple leases that take years and tens of millions of dollars to explore for hydrocarbons; there is no guarantee that a lease block will have an economically viable quantity of oil or gas – dry holes are common; geologic maps and models are often incorrect, requiring companies to develop updated ones for the block before trying to drill a production well; securing a lease is one of the earliest stages of exploration; and obtaining the necessary permitting from government agencies and securing investments for the project typically takes years.
Concerning the latter point, while the Biden administration claims companies are currently sitting on 9,000 leases, the industry has submitted 4,000 drilling applications awaiting approval from the Biden administration. Yet, under Biden, permit approvals are at a virtual standstill.
It doesn’t matter if a company has paid exorbitant fees and secured a lease if the administration refuses to allow exploration.
Rigzone’s analysis concluded about half the leases cited by DOI are still in the earliest stages of exploration, which doesn’t jibe with DOI’s insinuation that the leases are simply not being used.
U.S. domestic energy production is needed to help balance the loss of Russian oil and gas from Europe and the United States – as described by Climate Realism here – in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports the Gulf of Mexico provides about 15% of total U.S. crude oil production.
According to Rigzone, the Biden administration’s incoherent, inconsistent energy policies are making it extremely difficult for oil companies to secure financing for those projects. No one wants to invest in a project that could suddenly be canceled with the stroke of the president’s pen – which Biden has repeatedly shown he is willing to do.
Despite Biden’s public pronouncements that he wants to help European and American drivers struggling to fill their gas tanks, his anti-fossil fuel policies are leaving oil and gas companies uncertain about how to proceed with much-needed projects. As production naturally declines from older wells, new ones will be needed to pick up the slack. If nothing replaces them, the United States and its allies will be in the midst of a much worse energy crisis than we are already facing.
To view online: https://issuesinsights.com/2022/05/20/biden-cancels-more-oil-lease-sales-while-prices-at-the-pump-soar/