May 11, 2022
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
The U.S. economy lost 353,000 jobs in the household survey last month. Is Biden better off if the recession happens now?
By Robert Romano
The U.S. economy shed 353,000 jobs in April in the household survey compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This came a month after the first quarter ended with the economy contracting 1.4 percent on an inflation adjusted basis, according to data compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). If it contracts again in the second quarter, that will be a technical recession, just two years after the 2020 Covid recession.
So, how might we know we’re in a recession before the BEA publishes its next report? Look again at those jobs numbers from BLS.
There have been 12 recessions since 1948. In every single recession in modern history, there were at least two consecutive months of jobs losses in the household survey. Every single one of them.
There was also 1962 and 1965, two years where there were consecutive monthly declines in the number of people with jobs but that did not produce a recession. But, 12 out of 14, that’s an 85 percent rate of cases with consecutive monthly jobs losses definitely occurring during a recession.
So, while it is not determinative, if the next jobs report again shows a monthly decline in the number of people with jobs in the household survey, one begins to approach near certainty that we’re already in a recession.
Another recession indicator to pay attention to is the spread between 10-year treasuries and 2-year treasuries, which has already inverted. When that happens, in modern economic history, a recession tends to happen on average about 14 months later. Sometimes sooner, sometimes later.
Which, by the way, sooner might be President Joe Biden’s best case scenario politically. Why?
Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter were two consecutive one-term presidents who were hampered by high inflation and recessions in 1974 and 1975 and 1980, respectively, or George H.W. Bush who faced the same problems in 1990 and 1991, leading to all of their respective reelection losses in 1976, 1980 and 1992. In each case, the recession came too close to the presidential reelection cycle — and voters remembered. Donald Trump was similarly a one-term president who faced a massive recession via Covid in 2020.
On the other hand, Ronald Reagan had a terrible recession, too, in 1982 during the Congressional midterms. But by 1984, the economy was already fully recovering, inflation was falling and Reagan went on to defeat Walter Mondale in a 49-state landslide.
Which, makes all the sense in the world. The American people, when it comes to presidents, have a “What have you done for me lately?” attitude. They can and will forgive a recession, but they had better see improvement when the incumbent is standing for reelection. The real question for Biden whether the recession does anything to alleviate the supply chain crisis and long-term inflation.
The most toxic combination might be a recession in 2022, which harms Congressional Democrats, but then you still have high inflation, leading to more economic overheating in 2023 and even if one does not see another recession by 2024, politically the damage will have already been done as the American people say “Here we go again.” Meaning, if Biden does not solve inflation now, the American people may solve it for him later.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Gas prices still higher in 2022 than 2008
May 10, 2022, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following correction to his earlier statement responding to Gas Buddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan's claim that 2008 gasoline prices were "the highest inflation adjusted ever":
“Our earlier statement incorrectly stated that Gasbuddy’s Patrick De Haan said 2008 was the greatest gasoline price inflation in history. De Haan was actually talking about inflation-adjusted gasoline prices, saying 2008 had the ‘highest ever’ inflation-adjusted gas prices, but that's still wrong. On an inflation-adjusted basis, every year from 1935 to 1966 had higher inflation-adjusted gasoline prices compared to 2008. In fact, using this very metric, 2008’s $3.27 per gallon would be $3.78 in 2022 after adjusting for inflation. That is slightly less than 2022’s year to date average of $3.79 per gallon through April, according to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Therefore, 2008 was still not the ‘highest ever’ gas prices, even on an inflation-adjusted basis.
“The main point is that the Biden administration wants higher prices at the pump to move consumers to alternative energy sources, and to deny this is to deny one of the raisons d'être of this administration.”
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2022/05/correction-of-gas-buddy-statement/
ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured oped from Fox News, U.S. Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) urges Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to resign after letting the southern border devolve into sheer chaos and instead wasting time with his unconstitutional Disinformation Governance Board that violates free speech:
U.S. Rep. Mark Green: Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas, it's time to resign
By Mark Green
Competent leadership is difficult to come by these days, but there is an appalling lack of it in the Biden administration.
With his hand on the Bible, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas swore an oath to "support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies foreign and domestic," and to "well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office."
Swearing this oath is a requirement to hold leadership positions in our government, and failure to honor that oath is disqualifying. While that may seem obvious to some, it is one of the least rigorously followed rules in Washington.
His tenure in office has been short, but Secretary Mayorkas has failed to uphold his oath of office almost too many times to count.
The first and most glaring failure of Secretary Mayorkas has been his refusal to enforce immigration law. For the third time since he has been in office, the number of migrants crossing our southern border surpassed 200,000 in only one month’s time.
Even as border crossings are skyrocketing, Secretary Mayorkas is not only refusing to enforce laws, but actively dismantling them. He repealed the Trump-era Migrant Protection Protocol, which a 2019 DHS report declared was "indispensable" to protecting our homeland.
When the Supreme Court ordered him to reverse it, he moved slower than molasses to reinstate a completely gutted version of the program. Now, he is trying to end Title 42, which Border Patrol has warned will cause utter chaos at the border. Even several Democrats have warned against this move, which goes to show just how radical it is.
Mayorkas does not care about our laws or Constitution. This comes at a heavy, heavy price.
He has been trying to hide important numbers that prove his failure at the southern border, but despite his best efforts, we now know that over 42 illegal immigrants were encountered at the border that are on the terrorist and no-fly list.
That number is shocking in its own right, but when one considers that over 300,000 immigrants have evaded capture at the border, one has to wonder: how much higher than 42 is the real number?
In a recent Congressional hearing, my colleague, Congressman Jim Jordan, asked Mayorkas if any of these 42 people on the terrorist and no-fly list have been released into the United States. The Secretary’s response? "I do not know."
The person responsible for ensuring the security of our homeland against all enemies, foreign and domestic, does not know if his policies allowed apprehended potential terrorists full access to the United States. Let’s not forget why we have a border in the first place. Aside from it being the favored mode of entry for terrorists, the wide-open border has proven to be a boon for drug cartels and human traffickers.
These cartels are trafficking massive amounts of fentanyl to the United States, killing 79,000 people between 2020-2021. It is now the number one killer for American aged 18-45. Only two milligrams can be lethal, but 839 pounds of fentanyl was seized at the southern border in January 2022 alone. But again, we have no way of knowing how much higher the real number is.
And if you are still somehow convinced that Mayorkas’s open border policy is based on compassion, think again. Everyone knows the trek across the southern border is incredibly dangerous, but a recent GAO report found that, in one particularly dangerous part of the border, the official death count was off by more than 50%.
Not only has Mayorkas’s open border policy encouraged over a million migrants in the past six months to risk their lives, but they don’t even know the full extent of it. Many men, women, and children have all died on the journey, and more recently, a Texas National Guard member died trying to save two migrants struggling in a river. The two migrants survived and found trafficking illegal narcotics.
Rather than addressing these problems, Mayorkas has busied himself with the new "disinformation" board as an apparent top priority for national security. If that is not tone deaf, what is? He would rather create a disinformation board to target the political opponents of the Biden Administration than deal with the real and pressing threats caused by incompetent and dangerous border policies.
People are dying, and families are mourning, because Mayorkas does everything except his job.
Secretary Mayorkas, you have not upheld your oath of office. It is time to resign. Now.
To view online: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/homeland-security-secretary-mayorkas-resign-rep-mark-green