U.S. Intelligence Chief Predicts ‘War of Attrition’ in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a prolonged war (WaPo) in Ukraine, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told Congress. She said a diplomatic resolution to the conflict appears unlikely while both Russia and Ukraine believe they can make gains on the battlefield. In addition, Putin appears willing to make more drastic decisions in the coming months, which could lead to a war that is more “unpredictable and escalatory.”

The briefing came as the U.S. House of Representatives approved a $40 billion aid package (CNN) for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said during a White House visit that Western allies should work toward a cease-fire and peace process (Bloomberg) in Ukraine even as they continue to impose sanctions on Russia.

Analysis

“The US government should make clear that…America’s goal is not to use the war to weaken Russia. On the contrary, the US should underscore that it wants the war to end as soon as possible on terms that reflect Ukraine’s sovereign, independent status,” CFR President Richard Haass writes.

“A decisive military result in eastern Ukraine may prove elusive. Yet the less dramatic outcome of a festering stalemate is hardly better. Indefinite protraction of the war, as in Syria, is too dangerous with nuclear-armed participants,” journalist Tom Stevenson writes for the New York Times.

Pacific Rim

WHO Chief Calls China’s Zero-COVID Policy ‘Unsustainable’

Chinese censors removed a post (SCMP) about the comments by World Health Organization (WHO) Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus from a UN social media account. A study published yesterday estimated that 1.55 million people could die (The Guardian) if China lifted zero-COVID measures.

New Zealand: Wellington announced new policies (New Zealand Herald) to attract and retain skilled foreign workers, including visa extensions for those currently in the country and an expedited visa approval process.

South and Central Asia

India’s Supreme Court Suspends Controversial Sedition Law

The court ruled that those imprisoned under the law can apply for bail (The Hindu). India’s federal government has been accused (CNN) of using the colonial-era law to curb free speech.

In an interview with CFR’s Manjari Chatterjee Miller and Zoe Jordan, Karuna Nundy discusses India’s judicial system and weakening democracy.

Sri Lanka: The defense ministry authorized police to use live ammunition (Hindu) to control ongoing anti-government protests.

Middle East and North Africa

Palestinian-American Journalist Killed in West Bank

Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh was shot and killed (CNN) while covering an Israeli military operation. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said armed Palestinians were likely responsible for her death. An Al Jazeera journalist who was injured said no Palestinian fighters were present. The broadcaster blamed Israeli forces.

Yemen: The Norwegian Refugee Council urged the continuation of an ongoing truce in Yemen, saying that in the month following its implementation, civilian casualties fell more than 50 percent.

This Backgrounder looks at the war in Yemen.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Amnesty International: Civilian Killings More Than Doubled Under DRC State of Siege

Over one thousand civilians have been killed since the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) enacted a state of siege to combat armed groups in the North Kivu and Ituri Provinces last year, according to an Amnesty International report.

Uganda: The government said it acquired land (Bloomberg) to build East Africa’s first nuclear power plant.

The Why It Matters podcast examines the climate for nuclear energy.

Europe

EU Weighs Plans to Pay Hungary for Complying With Ban on Russian Oil

European Union (EU) officials are drawing up plans (Politico) to send money to Hungary, which has not committed to phasing out purchases of Russian oil.

Americas

Unidentified Gunmen Kill Paraguayan Prosecutor

Marcelo Pecci, who specialized in organized crime and drug trafficking cases, was visiting Colombia on his honeymoon when he was shot (MercoPress).

Ecuador: UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet called on Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso to take steps to end a string of prison massacres (MercoPress) in the country.

United States

CDC: Gun Homicides in 2020 Rose 35 Percent From Previous Year

The gun-related homicide rate in 2020 reached its highest level (NYT) recorded since 1994, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said.

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